February 2024 Observations and Discussion

[MIKEKC]

Yikes! The mid range models continue show a blow torch for the most of the country with maybe one brief cold snap later this week only to be followed by more 60's in KC next week. North of here might score a nice snow event later this week, keep an eye on that to see if it goes a bit farther south. 

I have perennials already coming up in the landscape beds. 2-3 inch heads on tulip bulbs. That crazy early. The cold cycle that we saw in Jan. started around the 5th and carried for about 15-20 days with multiple storms. The "repeat" period would start Monday next week, current data saying warm next week and not cold. 

I'm not giving up yet, BUT, I'm close.

Great SB yesterday, Chiefs are pretty darn good. 

[Black Hole]

Looks like a brief cold shot Friday-Saturday, maybe even a rain/snow mix in my area, but overall it looks mostly above normal for the next 10+ days. I still suspect we get one more snow tease in here the last week of February or early March. 

[Madtown]

winter is done....above verage temps this week  average for 3 days this weekend and 50 by next Thurs again. what a mess. depressed and exhausted from rink building. One for the history books

[Hoosier]

If Chicago can make it through 2/15 without measurable snow, it will be the first time on record with no measurable snow between 1/20 and 2/15.  

It looks like it almost happened in 1998, but not quite.  There's missing snowfall data, but the snowcover data from back then shows a modest increase happening on 1/22, so we can infer that a little bit of snow occurred.

[Tom]

34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If Chicago can make it through 2/15 without measurable snow, it will be the first time on record with no measurable snow between 1/20 and 2/15.  

It looks like it almost happened in 1998, but not quite.  There's missing snowfall data, but the snowcover data from back then shows a modest increase happening on 1/22, so we can infer that a little bit of snow occurred.

This stat is what dove me crazy the past number of winters.  I’d rather drive or fly somewhere where it snows and sticks and looks like winter than have to live in depression for a few months.  I’m very happy where I’m at right now.  It gets cool and wet but then you have a week of 70’s and sunshine.  The mountains have tons of snow.  I’ll prob make one more trip up into N AZ when the next storm parade hits and that’ll be good for me till next season.

[james1976]

It's been such a dull winter in the TC that I'm looking forward to spring. Only 7.3" of snow this season and with daylight getting longer I'm looking ahead to that. MPX says there's a chance at the warmest winter on record (Dec-Feb)

[Niko]

Finally NYC will get a major snowstorm this winter.......here we go:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
400 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-179-130500-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.240213T0900Z-240213T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.WS.W.0002.240213T0900Z-240213T2300Z/
Hudson-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
400 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches. Highest amounts away from the shoreline. Winds gusting
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...New York City, southern Nassau, and adjacent portions
  of urban northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

[Hoosier]

44 minutes ago, Niko said:

Finally NYC will get a major snowstorm this winter.......here we go:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
400 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-179-130500-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.240213T0900Z-240213T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.WS.W.0002.240213T0900Z-240213T2300Z/
Hudson-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
400 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches. Highest amounts away from the shoreline. Winds gusting
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...New York City, southern Nassau, and adjacent portions
  of urban northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

If it ends up being 4-8", I wouldn't really call that major by their standards.  They ain't Charlotte, North Carolina.

[Minny_Weather]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

They ain't Charlotte, North Carolina.

Or Alexandria, Minnesota.

[Minny_Weather]

Colder, wetter look on Euro weeklies as we enter March.

[CentralNebWeather]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

This stat is what dove me crazy the past number of winters.  I’d rather drive or fly somewhere where it snows and sticks and looks like winter than have to live in depression for a few months.  I’m very happy where I’m at right now.  It gets cool and wet but then you have a week of 70’s and sunshine.  The mountains have tons of snow.  I’ll prob make one more trip up into N AZ when the next storm parade hits and that’ll be good for me till next season.

Great point @Tom.  we had one month of winter weather, Then it was all over. My wife and I have talked about mountainous regions when we retire. Flagstaff sounds amazing. 

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Great point @Tom.  we had one month of winter weather, Then it was all over. My wife and I have talked about mountainous regions when we retire. Flagstaff sounds amazing. 

Flagstaff is a beautiful place but in the winter you wont get the consistency of deep snow as you will in the CO Rockies or the Sierra’s.  It’s a different flavor for winter but when it does hit, it can dump snow for days.  It is gorgeous in the Autumn and real delightful in the summer.  You get some awesome storms up there during the Monsoon.  Grand Canyon is only 1.5 hours away!

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Tom said:

Flagstaff is a beautiful place but in the winter you wont get the consistency of deep snow as you will in the CO Rockies or the Sierra’s.  It’s a different flavor for winter but when it does hit, it can dump snow for days.  It is gorgeous in the Autumn and real delightful in the summer.  You get some awesome storms up there during the Monsoon.  Grand Canyon is only 1.5 hours away!

Kind of sounds like what we are looking for. Still 5-10 years away, as we have a senior in high school this year to get through college. We want to live fairly close to a major airport. Right now it’s 3 hours to Omaha, 5 hours to KC and 4 1/2 hours to Denver.  Of course it will depend on where our 2 kids settle at. 

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS coming in quite strong with the double header system. Definitely an outlier.

[Niko]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If it ends up being 4-8", I wouldn't really call that major by their standards.  They ain't Charlotte, North Carolina.

Considering it has not really snowed there for an incredible amount of time, I would call this "Major." We are used to getting feet of snow in real Nor'easters, but that has not been the case, lately, unfortunately. Models have been trended even further south (benchmark 40/70), which is an ideal track for NYC and all 5 boroughs for real heavy snow. They are expecting snowfall rates of 1 to 2inches an hour. The highest I have seen was 3 to 4inches per hour rates during the famous blizzard of 96.

Yeah, your right. We are definitely not Charlotte, NC.

 

[Minny_Weather]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS coming in quite strong with the double header system. Definitely an outlier.

Inching closer to here.

[Grizzcoat]

Clearly the 06GFS must be wrong...

[Clinton]

GEFS and EPS not in agreement but the GEFS ensembles look confident.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 42/21 there was no rain/snowfall. The sun was out 67% of the possible time. The highest wind was 19 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 33/19 the record high of 58 was set in 1938 that year also had the most rainfall of 0.68”. The most snowfall of 5.0” fell in 1900 the most snow on the ground was 21” in 2014 and 1936 there was 20” on the ground in 1985. Last year the H/L was 42/28.

 

[Tom]

Nothing but sunny skies through the work week into the weekend...my kinda weather if ain't gonna storm!  I'll try to take some clear photos of the snow capped mountains to my east with a back drop of the deep blue skies.  I should have done it yesterday when I was driving back home from errands.

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

So the 00z GFS wasn't a one-off and the 06z NAM also came in much stronger. Hmm...

[Tom]

10 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Kind of sounds like what we are looking for. Still 5-10 years away, as we have a senior in high school this year to get through college. We want to live fairly close to a major airport. Right now it’s 3 hours to Omaha, 5 hours to KC and 4 1/2 hours to Denver.  Of course it will depend on where our 2 kids settle at. 

From Flagstaff, you can pretty much get anywhere you'd like and its right in your back yard.  You'll get to experience all sorts of diverse weather up there and I know you love the weather like I do.   The smell of the fresh pine is wonderful during the warm months!

[MIKEKC]

ICON throwing down a quick 2-3 inch snow for KC Friday morning...the trend yesterday was for it to be north of here, we'll see how the rest of the data trends. 

[MIKEKC]

GFS/NAM suggest the snow will stay north of KC. 

[hawkstwelve]

It's looking increasingly likely that I will be split between the two systems. Too far south for the Wed/Thurs system and too far north for the Thurs/Fri system. Should still score 1-3, maybe even 4 inches but heavier totals will most likely surround me on both sides. The way the cookie crumbles sometimes, I suppose.

[Black Hole]

41 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's looking increasingly likely that I will be split between the two systems. Too far south for the Wed/Thurs system and too far north for the Thurs/Fri system. Should still score 1-3, maybe even 4 inches but heavier totals will most likely surround me on both sides. The way the cookie crumbles sometimes, I suppose.

How I felt yesterday for here may also describe your situation lol

[Timmy Supercell]

The doldrums are back..

[bud2380]

A 2 county wide WWA was issued in parts of MN.  

 

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

A 2 county wide WWA was issued in parts of MN.  

 

This is a classic "would they have issued an advisory for it last winter" snow.  Advisory text says 3-4"

[bud2380]

18z NAM would say, upgrade that to a warning and expand it.

[chescowxman]

We ended up with 10.5" of snow here today in NW Chester County at 685 ft asl. The rain changed to sleet around 430am and over to snow at around 530am. We had heavy snow and ended up with 7" of snow falling just between 7am and 9am. The 10.5" of snow was our 2nd largest snowstorm this decade...behind only the 16.6" of snow that fell during the first 3 days of February 2021. For the winter season we are now at 21.7" of snow which is only 2.1" below normal through today.

[gimmesnow]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

18z NAM would say, upgrade that to a warning and expand it.

Oh man I was gonna go to Granite Peak (in Wausau) on Tuesday and Wednesday. This is headed almost right for it. RGEM is north and NAM Is a tiny bit south but both look really good. Please happen. I won't make it for the actual snow but conditions should be really good those days.

[hawkstwelve]

Wild GFS swings yet again.

Just three runs apart. 

[Clinton]

Great day for a Super Bowl parade in KC with sunny skies and a high of 65.  Changes coming by Friday with snow and some light accumulations possible. 

[chescowxman]

We have had some off and on light snow flurries this morning across the area and in fact are seeing some now here in East Nantmeal. The sun will return today and while we will be below average with temps not too far above freezing we will see some good snow melt with the increasing sun angle. Cloudier tomorrow with a couple clipper type systems the first one tomorrow night and another toward Saturday AM. The first one may bring a coating of snow while the second one on Saturday could bring a small accumulation of snow especially to more southern areas. Temps will remain below normal through the weekend.

Records for today: High 63 (1949) / Low 4 below (1979) / Precipitation 1.25" (2007) / Snow 10.0" (1899)

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 37/23 there was a trace of snowfall. The total for the month is now a trace. For today the average H/L is 33/19 the record high of 54 was set in 2023 the record low of -24 was set in 1899. The most rainfall of 0.90” fell in 1911 the most snowfall of 7.8” fell in 1946 the most on the ground was 21” in 1985 and 1936. Last year there was the record H of 54 and the low was 26.

[Hawkeye]

It will be a bit chilly this weekend, but the Euro brings back 50s again for much of next week, with 60º possible Wednesday.  This month has been crazy mild.  I'm almost ready for thunderstorm season.

[Tom]

Happy Valentine's Day!  Let's Share some love around the world today, whether it be to your loved one or just a friend...we need more love in this world.  In the wx world, around here its a carbon copy for the foreseeable future. 

I'll send you all some sunshine on this Valentine's Day...Spring Break anyone??

[Tom]

The LR looks pretty darn depressing for anyone  East of the Rockies after this weekend...I guess the West US stole winter as the PAC jet is just raging.  It appears I'll have to deal with the storms later in the month and prob most of MAR.  The Ski Season should be phenomenal for Spring Breakers in MAR.  Heck, I might even plan a trip if I can manage to find a crew to come with.  Heavenly in Lake Tahoe could be the epic destination.

[gimmesnow]

Looks like a good time to get in some Devil's Head Thursday. There's an advisory in Portage/Baraboo for 3-5. Probably going to be wet and heavy but I'll gladly take that over slush. Looks like it just barely ended up going north of me.