February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

We are already in HRRR range too!

 

[snow_wizard]

Not sure what to make of those colder mid level temps on the GFS.  Precip rate doesn't account for that.  If it's right the snow would be widespread.  Surface temps are a couple degrees better as well.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, I can’t speak for Seattle proper. Wouldn’t want to either, it is completely detached from reality.  

I was recently in San Diego and happened to pull up Redfin…take Seattle’s home prices and double them. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We are already in HRRR range too!

 

For now I'm going to assume no snow here, but I'm ready to be surprised.

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The schools in Seattle are not even that great. Places close to the high paying job epicenters are willing to pay more to live in North Seattle. 

Edmonds/shoreline (North) districts are a lot better than Federal Way or Highline school districts (south).  They also pay better. 

Seattle pays well but there are definitely some bad schools.... especially on the southside like the school my wife works at.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

I was recently in San Diego and happened to pull up Redfin…take Seattle’s home prices and double them. 

Crazy.  Even our modest place is up to almost half a million now.  Just insane.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For now I'm going to assume no snow here, but I'm ready to be surprised.

Yeah unfortunately closer to the foothills is not looking too good. Going to be very borderline at best here too further west. Gfs is definitely overdoing this but if we get even a little slush that would exceed my expectations for this right now. 

[Phishy Wx]

55 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think you meant manzanita. which actually already grows as far north as southern BC. 

I wish we could get some Pacific Madrone on Spokane.  miss those trees from the Santa Cruz Mtns, vivid brownish red bark

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Crazy.  Even our modest place is up to almost half a million now.  Just insane.

Yep mine is 725 and it's not a fancy place, just 2.5 acres and a basic 1700ft home. I have a nice 40x50 metal shop though

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For now I'm going to assume no snow here, but I'm ready to be surprised.

Out of all the models. The EURO seemed the most optimistic for East King. Hope the 00z follows the 18z. But the way this winter had progressed I’m not expecting much. 

[Meatyorologist]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its really not fair.    The housing market was much more accessible to my generation when we were in our 20s.    We bought our first home on a cul-de-sac in a new sub-division in San Diego in the best school district in the area when we were 24 years old.  My wife was making next to nothing as a nurse in the Navy stationed at Balboa Naval Hospital and I was working as an accounting temp getting paid hourly.     But we were able to ride the wave up once we got in.

It's pretty bad out there for folks like me. Just have to save money like never before.

32 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I live south of Seattle and I'm pretty dumb sometimes with the money I make but I try to have as much fun as I can while I'm on this rotating ball.

Having any fun at all is what got me into debt. Our current generation has no choice but to sacrifice our twenties to live a comfortable life. It sucks but I've accepted it. Hopefully by my 30th birthday I'll have a degree and be financially stable, but it'll mean brutal work and missed fun. Not everything can be perfect

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I was recently in San Diego and happened to pull up Redfin…take Seattle’s home prices and double them. 

Our biggest regret was selling that home on the cul-de-sac in the Poway School District in San Diego that we bought in 1994 right out of college for $190,000.   We lived in that house for 4 years and then sold it when my wife was done with her Navy assignment in 1998.    Had we been able to keep it and rent it out... just wow.    But we were broke and needed to roll the equity upward. 

[Jbolin]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are already in HRRR range too!

 

I can't believe I'm gonna say this but...

I'm on the Tim train, near surface temps and 925's look just a hair too warm for any meaningful accumulation, not even a dusting east of Kitsap.

Anything east of 405, fugghetaboutit. As I stated earlier, bring on the Mega Nina.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

It's pretty bad out there for folks like me. Just have to save money like never before.

Having any fun at all is what got me into debt. Our current generation has no choice but to sacrifice our twenties to live a comfortable life. It sucks but I've accepted it. Hopefully by my 30th birthday I'll have a degree and be financially stable, but it'll mean brutal work and missed fun. Not everything can be perfect

I think it is also just extremely expensive to live what we now consider a "comfortable" life. 30-40 years ago people's lives were much more basic. They still are in a lot of other "Western" countries. A lot of our issues are the absolutely out of control consumerism of our society. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Jbolin said:

I can't believe I'm gonna say this but...

I'm on the Tim train, near surface temps and 925's look just a hair too warm for any meaningful accumulation, not even a dusting east of Kitsap.

Anything east of 405, fugghetaboutit. As I stated earlier, bring on the Mega Nina.

I have no idea what will happen.   Seems like 925mb temps might not be a big problem now.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Our biggest regret was selling that nearly new home on the cul-de-sac in the Poway School District in San Diego that we bought in 1994 right out of college for $190,000.   We lived in that house for 4 years and then sold it when my wife was done with her Navy assignment in 1998.    Had we been able to keep it and rent it out... just wow.    But we were broke and needed to roll the equity upward. 

I’ve got a pocket full of real estate regrets. Biggest one is the land I could have purchased back in 2001 when I was up in Okanogan County but chickened out like a lil’ b*tch. Seriously needed to give my balls a tug on that one.

And I have a feeling that 20 years from even right now we’ll regret not finding a way to hold onto our place when we sold over the summer, but man we made a ridiculous amount of scratch.

[bainbridgekid]

And in true WRF fashion, as soon as the GFS it's supposed to be based on gets snowier, it gets way drier. Makes zero sense why it would suddenly flip totally dry even for Kitsap like that.

 

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have no idea what will happen.   Seems like 925mb temps might not be a big problem now.

We'll see, I'm prepared for anything from a trace to a dusting. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How do we feel about the long term real estate prospects for the Spokane area? I'm pulling together a group to go in on 3-4 properties up there. Real estate value long term is secondary, we are going to use them for a business venture we are starting, but I feel like there is still some growth in the real estate market out there... These are residential properties.

[SnarkyGoblin]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

think it is also just extremely expensive to live what we now consider a "comfortable" life. 30-40 years ago people's lives were much more basic. They still are in a lot of other "Western" countries. A lot of our issues are the absolutely out of control consumerism of our society

Whoa there karl marx.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep mine is 725 and it's not a fancy place, just 2.5 acres and a basic 1700ft home. I have a nice 40x50 metal shop though

I still get the monthly assessment values emailed to me each month on our old place (as well as our current place) and that place is currently at around $760k. A 1969 1400sqft split level on 2 acres and no shop. Crazy! Granted it was a complete gut and remodel in 2005 so it’s quite nice inside (way better cabinets/counters than our current house that was built in 2004) but still…Wow. 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve got a pocket full of real estate regrets. Biggest one is the land I could have purchased back in 2001 when I was up in Okanogan County but chickened out like a lil’ b*tch. Seriously needed to give my balls a tug on that one.

And I have a feeling that 20 years from even right now we’ll regret not finding a way to hold onto our place when we sold over the summer, but man we made a ridiculous amount of scratch.

I could have bought the lot next door to my uncles summer place on Lake Entiat for $12k also in 2001…I am still kicking myself for not jumping on that.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

And in true WRF fashion, as soon as the GFS it's supposed to be based on gets snowier, it gets way drier. Makes zero sense why it would suddenly flip totally dry even for Kitsap like that.

 

None at all, it has to be based of something else also. This must be a bad run maybe bad data.  If you compare this gfs run to the last couple it should look about the same. It has been extremely consistent.  

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

And in true WRF fashion, as soon as the GFS it's supposed to be based on gets snowier, it gets way drier. Makes zero sense why it would suddenly flip totally dry even for Kitsap like that.

 

I’m in the 1st shade of brown! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What are property taxes like in Washington? In Oregon they are capped at a 3% annual increase. My "assessed value" is about 1/2 of my "real market value." I pay about $2800 in property taxes a year, so it would be a lot worse if not for the annual cap. I have a friend in New Jersey who pays about $25,000 in property tax a year. 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m in the 1st shade of brown! 

That’s accumulating dust 

[Phishy Wx]

my home payment is stupid high. (for us)   I can afford it, but i'm tired of paying it.  i'm locked in at under 3%.  it's the 4th home I've owned since the early 2000s.  one in TN, one in SC and now on our second in E WA. CA was too expensive in Santa Cruz and LA to own, so we rented in the 6 years down there.  we cashed in a house we bought here in 2018 for 290k for 475K in 2021 right when covid restrictions were easing. house needed a lot of work so we thought we were getting rid of a headache for profit.  bought a brand new place for 550k (that was the financed amount with 20% down) at a 2.9% rate.  Now this place is unaffordable to a lot of people on this side of the cascades with interest rates around 7% so we're stuck and losing equity.  I doubt I could get what I paid for this place right now.  all the equity has dried up and I may head underwater soon.   my wife wants to move back east and I have aging parents in their 80s I need to probably go spend more time with.  I can get a house in SC of similar to better quality with a pool for 300-400k in the Columbia area where my folks are.  thing is I'd have to rent this place out until I could sell for profit and the market rent would not even cover the mortgage note.  shiit sucks

[Rubus Leucodermis]

23 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I wish we could get some Pacific Madrone on Spokane.  miss those trees from the Santa Cruz Mtns, vivid brownish red bark

 

Madrone grows as far north as southern BC, too. They call it by its genus name (Arbutus) here. You are just on the wrong side of the Cascades to get any Mediterranean climate flora.

Although that picture looks almost more like a large manzanita to me.

[LowerGarfield]

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's true. A first time home buyer typically can't buy a fixer upper because you can't finance them. So even though the house is "affordable" you have to be able to pay with cash. 

Something that keeps me up at night is if I should focus on buying some property closer to Spokane long term goal for my son or work toward my son's college although for non stem it may not be worth it whereas he could survive with a house. Living in the sticks isn't an option for the kids, though it worked for us specifically. My parents who are pushing 70 in CA told me they are considering Wyoming because they don't have an income tax or tax retirement income. These are people who probably consider places like north SnoCo to be conservative. I told them they should just move to the Seattle or Spokane area in that case.

Already below freezing, 31F.

What do you west siders think of the CMC snowstorm at the end of the run? I can only look with some envy but like I've said, this winter has been better to me than the last and I'll probably get somewhere between 1-2.5 inches in the next 48 hours or so based on almost all models so I can't complain.

[Phishy Wx]

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve got a pocket full of real estate regrets. Biggest one is the land I could have purchased back in 2001 when I was up in Okanogan County but chickened out like a lil’ b*tch. Seriously needed to give my balls a tug on that one.

And I have a feeling that 20 years from even right now we’ll regret not finding a way to hold onto our place when we sold over the summer, but man we made a ridiculous amount of scratch.

can I get a loan?  want to buy my place in Spokane.  you and Tim can split the note. I'm good for it, I promise

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah unfortunately closer to the foothills is not looking too good. Going to be very borderline at best here too further west. Gfs is definitely overdoing this but if we get even a little slush that would exceed my expectations for this right now. 

IF the GFS is right about the mid levels being as cold as this run shows most people will get snow from Everett to Olympia.  That's a big if.  The big change on this run was colder mid level temps.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No offense to anyone, but I just think of W. Washington from Seattle-north as a place working families cannot afford to live. 

Unless you have no kids and low rent? Is no kids still a family?

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Madrone grows as far north as southern BC, too. They call it by its genus name (Arbutus) here. You are just on the wrong side of the Cascades to get any Mediterranean climate flora.

Although that picture looks almost more like a large manzanita to me.

I know

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm in a 2% fixed rate through bank of America.  Long story short I had a bad country wide loan that was shady and bank of America bought the loan. I hired a lawyer and they ended up removing 50k of the balance and put me In a 2% fixed rate. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

IF the GFS is right about the mid levels being as cold as this run shows most people will get snow from Everett to Olympia.  That's a big if.  The big change on this run was colder mid level temps.

I think colder mid level temps have been the trend

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Something that keeps me up at night is if I should focus on buying some property closer to Spokane long term goal for my son or work toward my son's college although for non stem it may not be worth it whereas he could survive with a house. Living in the sticks isn't an option for the kids, though it worked for us specifically. My parents who are pushing 70 in CA told me they are considering Wyoming because they don't have an income tax or tax retirement income. These are people who probably consider places like north SnoCo to be conservative. I told them they should just move to the Seattle or Spokane area in that case.

Already below freezing, 31F.

What do you west siders think of the CMC snowstorm at the end of the run? I can only look with some envy but like I've said, this winter has been better to me than the last and I'll probably get somewhere between 1-2.5 inches in the next 48 hours or so based on almost all models so I can't complain.

As a parent I worry about what it will be like for my kids. I got lucky in terms of buying a house at the right time. My kids in Oklahoma will be in a better position if they choose to stay out there. You can still buy a decent house for $200K out there. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Madrone grows as far north as southern BC, too. They call it by its genus name (Arbutus) here. You are just on the wrong side of the Cascades to get any Mediterranean climate flora.

Although that picture looks almost more like a large manzanita to me.

Madrona are extremely picky about where they grow.  They do not grow in the area I live in.  Probably the dry east wind.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Unless you have no kids and low rent? Is no kids still a family?

I'm not going to define what family means to you. 

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What are property taxes like in Washington? In Oregon they are capped at a 3% annual increase. My "assessed value" is about 1/2 of my "real market value." I pay about $2800 in property taxes a year, so it would be a lot worse if not for the annual cap. I have a friend in New Jersey who pays about $25,000 in property tax a year. 

Spokane county is 1.2% of home value. its different by county

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Madrona are extremely picky about where they grow.  They do not grow in the area I live in.  Probably the dry east wind.

I have 2 in my back yard.