March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF spits out a 46/29 for the 22nd in Seattle.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F and partly cloudy.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is dry.   The one week dry spell has begun with plenty of sun over the next 7 days... and then a fairly dry cool down with some 50ish and partly sunny type days next Wed-Fri with some showers at times.

[Groundhog]

6 hours ago, Deweydog said:

2 goal lead is the most DANGEROUS lead in hockey. It’s like Jim when the models are in LOCK STEP on a massive BLAST at 216 hours.

Nah, a 3-2 lead produces HISTORIC comebacks. I just get a VIBE that a 3-2 lead going into the 3rd that the leading team will lose resulting in a win burger for the other team. 
 

If the Euro op is somewhat correct: warm & dry followed by cool & dry. Pleasant March variability. 

[westMJim]

Some weather history in southern lower Michigan

1990: A spell of record warm weather continues across Lower Michigan with temperatures in the 70s. Lansing hits 74 degrees during a string of four straight days in the 70s.

1993: The Superstorm of 1993 dumps three to four feet of snow across the Appalachians and draws down record-cold arctic air across Lower Michigan. High temperatures struggle to reach the lower 20s with gusty winds making it feel even colder.

 2017, a clipper brought widespread 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation to SE Michigan. With the easterly wind off of Lake Erie, lake enhancement led to a small area of 3 to 6 inches in the Detroit Metro area. Thousands of area residents were still without power during this event due to the record March 8th wind storm a few days prior.

 1990, the overnight temperature dropped to only 59 degrees in Flint, which is the record maximum low temperature for the day. This was also the second day in a string of four days (March 12-15) that record maximum low temperatures were set.

Across the USA

1953,  An F4 tornado cut an 18-mile path through Haskell and Knox counties in Texas. 17 people were killed, and an eight-block area of Knox City was leveled.

1990,Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northwest Texas to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska during the day and into the night. Severe thunderstorms spawned 59 tornadoes, including twenty-six strong or violent tornadoes, and there were about two hundred reports of large hail or damaging winds. There were forty-eight tornadoes in Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa, and some of the tornadoes in those three states were the strongest of record for so early in the season, and for so far northwest in the United States. The most powerful tornado of the day was one that tore through the central Kansas community of Hesston. The F5 tornado killed two persons, injured sixty others, and caused 22 million dollars in damage along its 67-mile path. The tornado had a lifespan of two hours. Another tornado tracked 124 miles across southeastern Nebraska, injuring eight persons and causing more than five million dollars in damage during its three-hour lifespan.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 51/41 day with a midnight low. Partly to mostly cloudy with a low of 38 this morning.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like, per usual, the warm spell/ridge is trending beefier again in the home stretch. Temps still don’t look as bad as they were a couple days ago, but there has been a tendency to push the warmest days to Sunday/Monday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like, per usual, the warm spell/ridge is trending beefier again in the home stretch. Temps still don’t look as bad as they were a couple days ago, but there has been a tendency to push the warmest days to Sunday/Monday.

It's disappointing, but perhaps Mark was on to something. At least there is a clear light at the end of the tunnel!

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's disappointing, but perhaps Mark was on to something. At least there is a clear light at the end of the tunnel!

Mark still has Saturday as the warmest day and Friday in the mid 70s as well. Models have cooled Friday quite a bit with a slower warm up. Warmest day now looks like Sunday or Monday. 

I’ll go with a peak of 74 for this event at PDX, which is nowhere near the 80s he was predicting a few days ago.

Edited March 13 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phishy Wx]

had a dusting overnight

NWS Spokane LIED

 

lol

[MossMan]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The disconnect between the Puget Sound region and OR last March was ridiculous.  It was totally boring here other than a decent number of chilly mins.

I had a cold snowy morning on 3/1/23 on top of what had already fallen in late February, a dusting on 3/23/23 and a couple inches on 3/25/23! 

[MossMan]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is dry.   The one week dry spell has begun with plenty of sun over the next 7 days... and then a fairly dry cool down with some 50ish and partly sunny type days next Wed-Fri with some showers at times.

It’s raining and 37 here…It has not yet begun. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

had a dusting overnight

NWS Spokane LIED

 

lol

What a blessing. 

[westcoastexpat]

Ops and control runs definitely appear to be the outliers, so I'd caution any "excitement" about high of 45/lows of 35 being advertised 

[TT-SEA]

The last couple ECMWF AI runs have greatly toned down the cold and extreme blocking... looking more progressive and seasonal now.

[LowerGarfield]

37F here this morning. Not much to write about here.

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Ops and control runs definitely appear to be the outliers, so I'd caution any "excitement" about high of 45/lows of 35 being advertised 

Jim and I want the Pat that was posting during the January event! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Jim and I want the Pat that was posting during the January event! 

I’d rather have Pat Sajak posting here.

[MossMan]

We had a windstorm 8yrs ago today! PUD posted this picture which happened to be just a few doors down from our family lake house. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 with some fog and low clouds. A bit of snow hanging on by North Falls.

[Phil]

This Indo-Pacific cooling is unusual for a developing niña. I’d probably chalk it up to intraseasonal noise, but it’s occurring at the exact point in the seasonal cycle where SSTA warming is most likely to occur there during niña transitions.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

This Indo-Pacific cooling is unusual for a developing niña. I’d probably chalk it up to intraseasonal noise, but it’s occurring at the exact point in the seasonal cycle where SSTA warming is most likely to occur there during niña transitions.

It’s all good, just means a January 1950 redux is coming. 

[Phil]

10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This is the mother of all SSW's.  This anomaly stays right on the pole for the entire run.

It’s the final warming. The PV goes into dormancy during the late spring/summer months every year.

A dynamic FW is analogous to a SSW in many ways, while a static FW is more of a slow decay.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

39 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Ops and control runs definitely appear to be the outliers, so I'd caution any "excitement" about high of 45/lows of 35 being advertised 

That spaghetti seems to indicate anything is still possible the last week of the month. Rooting for mid 50s and some dry partial days. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

Some weather history in southern lower Michigan

1990: A spell of record warm weather continues across Lower Michigan with temperatures in the 70s. Lansing hits 74 degrees during a string of four straight days in the 70s.

1993: The Superstorm of 1993 dumps three to four feet of snow across the Appalachians and draws down record-cold arctic air across Lower Michigan. High temperatures struggle to reach the lower 20s with gusty winds making it feel even colder.

 2017, a clipper brought widespread 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation to SE Michigan. With the easterly wind off of Lake Erie, lake enhancement led to a small area of 3 to 6 inches in the Detroit Metro area. Thousands of area residents were still without power during this event due to the record March 8th wind storm a few days prior.

 1990, the overnight temperature dropped to only 59 degrees in Flint, which is the record maximum low temperature for the day. This was also the second day in a string of four days (March 12-15) that record maximum low temperatures were set.

Across the USA

1953,  An F4 tornado cut an 18-mile path through Haskell and Knox counties in Texas. 17 people were killed, and an eight-block area of Knox City was leveled.

1990,Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northwest Texas to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska during the day and into the night. Severe thunderstorms spawned 59 tornadoes, including twenty-six strong or violent tornadoes, and there were about two hundred reports of large hail or damaging winds. There were forty-eight tornadoes in Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa, and some of the tornadoes in those three states were the strongest of record for so early in the season, and for so far northwest in the United States. The most powerful tornado of the day was one that tore through the central Kansas community of Hesston. The F5 tornado killed two persons, injured sixty others, and caused 22 million dollars in damage along its 67-mile path. The tornado had a lifespan of two hours. Another tornado tracked 124 miles across southeastern Nebraska, injuring eight persons and causing more than five million dollars in damage during its three-hour lifespan.

 

Spring is always turbulent. This month alone I’ve had two thunderstorms, two snow squalls, and 51 consecutive hours with winds gusting between 45-60mph last Sun/Mon.

Pattern doesn’t look like it wants to quiet down anytime soon either.

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

This Indo-Pacific cooling is unusual for a developing niña. I’d probably chalk it up to intraseasonal noise, but it’s occurring at the exact point in the seasonal cycle where SSTA warming is most likely to occur there during niña transitions.

Hopefully this bodes well for a quick transition 

[Deweydog]

Four years ago RIGHT NOW the lockdowns were kicking off like a mofo and this beauty was setting up shop which produced SNOW and the following morning. 

[iFred]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Jim and I want the Pat that was posting during the January event! 

In all fairness, they’re the only one who is legally allowed to post long range weather models, as per both the State of Oregon and a Canadian federal statute, They have both provided certification and proof of qualified education that allows them to violently spray watery and slimy shit all over anything that gives Jim a glimmer of hope as he only yearns for a simple cold day in the twilight of his life.

[iFred]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Four years ago RIGHT NOW the lockdowns were kicking off like a mofo and this beauty was setting up shop which produced SNOW and the following morning. 

We had some clear and crisp days from that. Still have a good memory of walking around downtown Everett with everyone else shut in.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is slower to break down the ridge... ICON went in the same direction.    Tuesday trended quite a bit warmer.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF spits out a 46/29 for the 22nd in Seattle.

That would be awesome.

[TT-SEA]

Ridge is still pretty solid on 12Z GEM on Wednesday... even more so than 12Z GFS.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

06Z Euro still calling for 70-burgers as far north as BC on Saturday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

06Z Euro still calling for 70-burgers as far north as BC on Saturday.

Cooler more south.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cooler more south.

Coolest more north

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

31 currently, low of 22. Should be a decent day at Mount Bachelor, they've picked up 10" of snow in the last 48hrs.

[TT-SEA]

Blocking ridge just floats away on 12Z GFS opening up the door to a more seasonal pattern in 10 days... instead of forcing down very cold air from the north.     This would likely be wetter than those really cold scenarios.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

I had a feeling we might see some gross trends for next week at some point. The setup driving the supposed retrogression looks pretty tenuous. Let’s hope the ensembles and Euro are better.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM looks very similar to the GFS in 10 days with block floating away.   The 12Z GEM keeps it fairly warm all of next week with rain coming in from the southwest by the end of the run.  

[iFred]

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