March 2024 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Out here timing of the rain is more important than quantity for the vegetation.   2019 was a much drier than normal year here and yet it was by far the most lush and green summer in the last decade.   2022 was a wetter than normal year with a 5 month dry spell through the warm season and trees were dying.   We could have received 60 inches of rain in March 2022 and it would have been just as bad by October. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Out here timing of the rain is more important than quantity for the vegetation.   2019 was a much drier than normal year here and yet it was by far the most lush and green summer in the last decade.   2022 was a wetter than normal year with a 5 month dry spell through the warm season and trees were dying.   We could have received 60 inches of rain in March 2022 and it would have been just as bad by October. 

Hope to never experience a dry spell like that again.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS shows warm up followed by a cool down followed by a warm up.   We just can't get out of those woods with this progressive pattern.   Its almost like climo means some dry spells in April.   Need to research more.  

[Phishy Wx]

its been dry, yesterday was good,  but yea dry

Irrigation district already sent a letter about potential restrictions starting in May

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

its been dry, yesterday was good,  but yea dry

Irrigation district already sent a letter about potential restrictions starting in May

No cushion over there.  

[Phishy Wx]

 

https://ecology.wa.gov/blog/march-2024/water-supply-update

Water Supply Update

There’s snow doubt, we’re still in drought

Despite the snow covering Hurricane Ridge, the Olympic Mountains are still at only half of their normal snowpack with spring right around the corner. National Park Service webcam photo

With all the clouds in the air over the last month, you’d think at least one would have a silver lining. But to those who thought recent weather events might alleviate the state’s ongoing drought, there’s “snow such luck.”

Weather events during the first weekend in March bumped statewide snowpack by 10 percent, raising our snow water equivalent (the amount of our water supply stored as snow) from 61 percent to 71 percent of normal.

“The snow was helpful for the magnitude of drought impacts, but there is still significant concern for multiple regions of the state,” said Ecology’s statewide drought lead Caroline Mellor. “The Olympics did go from 34 percent last week to 51 percent today (March 2), which is a huge jump for a week. That doesn't make 51 percent any less concerning.”

Mellor said the state would still need significantly above normal precipitation and cold temperatures to address the existing snowpack deficit and snowpack drought concerns. However, statewide, predictions for the next three months are for higher-than-average temperatures and lower -than-average precipitation. In addition to the existing drought declaration, areas of specific concern include the Olympic region, the central Cascade foothills and the upper Columbia Basin.

A snowpack drought is one in which we receive normal amounts of precipitation, but it falls as rain when it’s historically been snow. Washington relies heavily on snowpack melting into streams and aquifers through spring and summer months for water supply. According to climate models, by 2050, we can expect a snowpack drought more than 40 percent of years.

The state’s current drought, declared in July last year for 12 watersheds in 12 counties, is still in effect and scheduled to expire at the end of June. The statewide drought advisory is still in effect.

Water supply at a glance:

 

Source: National Integrated Drought Information System

• Snowpack – 71 percent
• Precipitation for the water year so far – 92 percent of normal
• Current Streamflows – Ranging from below normal to normal statewide with impacts from the snow drought anticipated in spring and summer.
• Streamflow Forecast – Areas in the northwest, central and eastern regions of the state are expected to rank among the lowest years on record.

What’s next?

Ecology continues to monitor the situation and depending on evolving conditions, has the option to extend the duration of the drought declaration or expand the number of affected areas. Each month Ecology chairs a meeting of the Water Supply Availability Committee. This meeting includes updates from various state and federal agencies regarding the many factors that contribute to our water supply. A recording ot the February meeting is available below. 

The state of Washington defines drought as the combination of less than 75 percent of normal water supply and the potential for undue hardship. While the WSAC meets monthly to discuss the water supply component of drought, we rely on other input to help determine hardship.

You can help us understand your concerns about drought by filling out this survey. This information will help Ecology and other state agencies to better understand the current and future impacts of drought in different regions of the state. No identifying information will be collected in this survey.

Online resources

Keep up with current water supply information by visiting our statewide conditions page and our water supply monitoring page.

The National Integrated Drought Information System recently launched new state-specific drought pages. The folks at NDIS worked with our staff to include some language describing how Washington defines drought.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows warm up followed by a cool down followed by a warm up.   We just can't get out of those woods with this progressive pattern.   Its almost like climo means some dry spells in April.   Need to research more.  

It shows basically all of North America with slightly above normal heights by the end. Doesn't look like much of a signal to me. Pretty far out, obviously.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Yep, most of the excess just runs off. Snowpack is the problem, it's around the 5th worst year in the past ~30 years in most of Washington. 

 

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

https://ecology.wa.gov/blog/march-2024/water-supply-update

Water Supply Update

There’s snow doubt, we’re still in drought

 

Much different story in OR.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

51F, blustery and the occasional shower. Nice and cool day.  Cherishing these before we start counting up the 90F burgers between May and September.

[the_convergence_zone]

34 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Let’s just assume that below average rainfall is the same for water supply as average or above. I mean even when we hit average it just feels like too much rain to me, personally.

#science

It amuses me that you treat me like I'm an idiot and openly mock about half of the things I post on this forum. I make an offhand comment about something that seems straightforward to me and I get a barrage of insults from you in response. There's no point in engaging in a one-sided debate. 

[Phil]

For those of you traveling to TX, there’s a chance you’ll end up smack dab in the middle of a tornado outbreak instead. That 12z ECMWF run is cringe.

Giant wedge tornado during the middle of an eclipse would be one hell of an acid trip (except it would be real, hehe).

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It shows basically all of North America with slightly above normal heights by the end. Doesn't look like much of a signal to me. Pretty far out, obviously.

I like the weak troughing signal over AK and the GOA. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

For those of you traveling to TX, there’s a chance you’ll end up smack dab in the middle of a tornado outbreak instead. That 12z ECMWF run is cringe.

Giant wedge tornado during the middle of an eclipse would be one hell of an acid trip (except it would be real, hehe).

Well I've never seen a tornado before, but I have seen 3 solar eclipses. ITS TIME TO ROOT FOR THE TORNADOES, ITS COMING!!! WOOOOO!! GET YOUR CONCRETE BASEMENTS, BUY YOUR PRODUCE, BUY YOUR GASOLINE AND CANNED FOOD BECAUSE TORNADOMAGETON IS COMING!!! WOOOO!!

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

For those of you traveling to TX, there’s a chance you’ll end up smack dab in the middle of a tornado outbreak instead. That 12z ECMWF run is cringe.

Giant wedge tornado during the middle of an eclipse would be one hell of an acid trip (except it would be real, hehe).

On a serious note though, in the path of totality how does it look for Arkansas, SE Missouri, and South Illinois? Also cloudy for them? I'm rooting for it to be clear in Texas but I have a backup plan to view it in those regions. 

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

For those of you traveling to TX, there’s a chance you’ll end up smack dab in the middle of a tornado outbreak instead. That 12z ECMWF run is cringe.

Giant wedge tornado during the middle of an eclipse would be one hell of an acid trip (except it would be real, hehe).

Looks like a big storm here.

For our PNW friends, the trough dropping down next week is both deeper and a bit faster. Significantly improved blocking in the GOA.

[RentonHill]

 

 

 

 

[the_convergence_zone]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

 

 

 

 

Where did that chart come from? It looks low but not 6 sigma low...https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

[FroYoBro]

Currently only 47 degrees and raining at 1pm here. Very chilly for the last few days of March. 

[Tyler Mode]

6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

 

 

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

36 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It amuses me that you treat me like I'm an idiot and openly mock about half of the things I post on this forum. I make an offhand comment about something that seems straightforward to me and I get a barrage of insults from you in response. There's no point in engaging in a one-sided debate. 

Par for the course... its always been that way.   Got a little better post-banning but right back to normal again now.   Very abrasive with an ever-present know-it-all mocking tone.   

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It amuses me that you treat me like I'm an idiot and openly mock about half of the things I post on this forum. I make an offhand comment about something that seems straightforward to me and I get a barrage of insults from you in response. There's no point in engaging in a one-sided debate. 

You haven’t lived until you have gotten a PM from him! (Or many) 
I’m part of that PM elite crowd!! I feel so special!

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It amuses me that you treat me like I'm an idiot and openly mock about half of the things I post on this forum. I make an offhand comment about something that seems straightforward to me and I get a barrage of insults from you in response. There's no point in engaging in a one-sided debate. 

My apologies. I can try to tone it down. Some of these issues I’m pretty passionate about. Hydrology was my primary area of study as an undergrad.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You haven’t lived until you have gotten a PM from him! (Or many) 
I’m part of that PM elite crowd!! I feel so special!

Been about five years since that was a thing.

[RentonHill]

41 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Where did that chart come from? It looks low but not 6 sigma low...https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

gadzooks!! i've been had 

[FroYoBro]

I don't want to alarm anyone, but it's down to 45 degrees here.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Been about five years since that was a thing.

You literally sent me another one just last week

[Rubus Leucodermis]

30 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You haven’t lived until you have gotten a PM from him! (Or many) 
I’m part of that PM elite crowd!! I feel so special!

I feel left out.

[fubario]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

For those of you traveling to TX, there’s a chance you’ll end up smack dab in the middle of a tornado outbreak instead. That 12z ECMWF run is cringe.

Giant wedge tornado during the middle of an eclipse would be one hell of an acid trip (except it would be real, hehe).

i'll be in Hamilton Ontario for it. Trudeau promised it'll be clear.

[Cold Snap]

Some lightning in the Bothell area.

[Front Ranger]

35 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

gadzooks!! i've been had 

Really want those to come to CO: https://www.gadzooksaz.com/. It's kinda like Chipotle, but higher quality and enchiladas. So good.

[MossMan]

34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You literally sent me another one just last week

Not sure why you are confused, Jesse…

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

26 minutes ago, fubario said:

i'll be in Hamilton Ontario for it. Trudeau promised it'll be clear.

https://www.ndp.ca/news/10-years-justin-trudeau-10-broken-promises

 

Looks like your getting a cloudy solar eclipse!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I learned today that annual rainfall has nothing to do with groundwater. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not sure why you are confused, Jesse…

Now you have to show us what he messaged you

[HuskyMaestro]

Had a recruiter hit me up about a software dev position in Helena, MT. Probably nothing will come out of it, but it's fun to daydream about Montana snow if I were to relocate there If only! 

53F right now, sun's trying to peek through clouds 

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I learned today that annual rainfall has nothing to do with groundwater. 

I learned today that some rainfall runs off into rivers and out to the ocean.    The more you get... the more that runs off.  

If it takes 60 inches of rain a year to recharge an underground aquifer and the area averages 80 inches a year then you have lots of cushion.   Because is full is full.   

[TT-SEA]

Here is a visual for Andew... Snoqualmie Falls dumping massive amounts of water running off from a heavy rainfall.   Its being wasted!   Heading right out to the ocean.   Ground could not hold any more.  

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a visual for Andew... Snoqualmie Falls dumping massive amounts of water running off from a heavy rainfall.   Its being wasted!   Heading right out to the ocean.   Ground could not hold any more.  

Doesn't look too droughty.

[Tyler Mode]

Snow to cover the flowers...at least in the hills?!

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Doesn't look too droughty.

Well not a live pic!   Just an example of how our winter rain does run off to some degree.