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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


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9 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Now you have a frost warning and I have a freeze warning.  I've had two mornings in the upper 20s already. Why is the fgf issuing fall freeze/frost warnings for areas that have seen multiple freezes already this fall?

I was wrong in the post you quoted. Was in a hurry for something else and made the stupid decision to post before checking the AFD.

They were hesitant to throw the Western CWA into a headline as they were worried about cloud cover limiting cooling (which it looks like it will). Though I'm not sure why they're issuing frost/freeze headlines at all considering almost all of the CWA got <32 last month.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

As seasons transition I'm honoring those who serve the public good through service in law enforcement and fire & rescue. Acting as a shield between us and harm. Some giving their lives serving and

Pounding at DSM airport!! .3 to .4 on snowboards ,, probably can muster a wet inch before sunrise.

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NWS Hastings concerned about above normal temps next week and very low humidity. Fire conditions and drought gets worse. 
 

Both
ensembles indicate strong agreement for well above normal temps in
the 80s for second half of next week. While warm and dry
conditions are pleasant and allow for progress on fall harvest,
will need to monitor potential for fire wx concerns. Warm temps
this time of year are often accompanied by at least some breezy
S-W winds and low humidity, and given lack of pcpn chcs, ongoing
drought, and activities associated with harvest, could be looking
at a heightened potential for at least near-critical fire wx for a
multi-day stretch not seen in this area for at least a few yrs.
Obviously plenty of time for details later, but something we`ll be
monitoring.

 

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There is a frost advisory for Cedar Rapids and points north tonight.  The NWS has been unsure just how cold it will get considering the GFS and Euro have been different all week.  The GFS has it clear with temps in the low to mid 30s while the Euro has clouds and low to mid 40s.  There is still a patch of clouds moving through now, but it appears it may clear in a few hours.  I hope some wind will keep the temp from dropping below 36 or so.  I did not protect any plants.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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First frost advisory of the season, KLNK down to 35 already. In other news, I guess the next presidential debate will be on Zoom lmao 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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7 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

There is a frost advisory for Cedar Rapids and points north tonight.  The NWS has been unsure just how cold it will get considering the GFS and Euro have been different all week.  The GFS has it clear with temps in the low to mid 30s while the Euro has clouds and low to mid 40s.  There is still a patch of clouds moving through now, but it appears it may clear in a few hours.  I hope some wind will keep the temp from dropping below 36 or so.  I did not protect any plants.

I see a lot of low/mid 30's showing up early this morning from CR on north where skies are clear, esp out by James where he may have dipped sub freezing today.

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Has anyone flipped on their furnace yet around the Lakes/MW region???  It was a chilly indoor temp of 63F this morning when I went downstairs and I'm still fighting the idea of turning it on.  My space heater is doing the trick for the time being in the family room.  I think I may turn it on later today but for now I'm alright.  It's currently the coolest morning of this autumn season (42F) and still may dip a degree or two.

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Warroad received a dusting of snow this morning.

Beltrami, you know if you got any flakes in Baudette?

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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While many areas in west Michigan reported hail yesterday some even reported hail covering the ground. There was no hail that I know of here yesterday. I did record 0.17" of rain fall and there was a few claps of thunder yesterday afternoon. The overnight low here was 35 but the clouds have now moved in and the current temperature here is 39.

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26 minutes ago, Tom said:

Has anyone flipped on their furnace yet around the Lakes/MW region???  It was a chilly indoor temp of 63F this morning when I went downstairs and I'm still fighting the idea of turning it on.  My space heater is doing the trick for the time being in the family room.  I think I may turn it on later today but for now I'm alright.  It's currently the coolest morning of this autumn season (42F) and still may dip a degree or two.

I just leave the thermostat at 66 and yes the furnace has kicked on several times. At this time I turned the  thermostat to 70 just to take the chill out of the house.

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FGF really blew it by not also issuing a freeze warning for the ND CWA North of Hwy 200. Temps up by the Canada border reached 21*F. Ouch.

Cirrus deck kept temps from getting too low this far South. 33.3*F. 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I see a lot of low/mid 30's showing up early this morning from CR on north where skies are clear, esp out by James where he may have dipped sub freezing today.

Yup! Just hit 32 and there's frost everywhere. Certainly not a hard freeze but definitely frosty conditions. 

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A patch of clouds early in the night kept my temp in the 40s through 2am.  Then, a clear sky allowed the temp to dip to the mid 30s by morning.  It appears it was not this cold long enough for frost formation.

I see several 28º reports in western to north-central Iowa.  This is a surprise.  I don't believe Des Moines even issued a freeze advisory.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It's taking the clouds a bit longer than expected to thicken up, and as such, the temp is shooting up. 35.6*F.

The airport got to 32 at the 8am update.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I am looking forward to the return of 60s and 70s next week.  It's too early to be this cold.  Models are showing a very pleasant week across most of Iowa next week, especially for western and central Iowa.  Just like in spring, they are always several degrees warmer than eastern Iowa it seems.  

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It looks like the official high at Grand Rapids will be 52. That will tie 2003 and 1961 for the 3rd coldest maximum at Grand Rapids for any October 2nd in history with just  1993 (49) and 1974 (44) being colder. At this time it is mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds and 74 here

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I had a low of 34° with some patchy light frost on the grass just a few feet from the back door. I stepped out to make sure. No frost damage I’m aware of. Parts of nw. Iowa probably had a killing frost.

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Mixed stuff on the D1 for WMI

 

20201002 noaad1.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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On 10/1/2020 at 6:06 AM, Tom said:

I like where things are heading around these parts even though models sorta backed off on the intensity of the "clipper" this weekend.  Interestingly, the models have trended colder for my area Mon morning post clipper.  Needless to say, it's going to be the coldest autumn weekend here and perfect wx on Sunday to stay indoors and watch some football and cook some good food!

00z Euro showing low/mid 30's for many on here Monday morning...First Frost for Chicago area???

1.png

NOAA has the SLP from SW Missouri to about CLE. Even tho this forms on the polar front, it's certainly not a clipper track in the traditional sense. It will be on the dryer side for sure since it's not tapping the GOMEX. Not sure how to classify this one, lol, as it's kind of an odd-ball.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 hours ago, westMJim said:

It looks like the official high at Grand Rapids will be 52. That will tie 2003 and 1961 for the 3rd coldest maximum at Grand Rapids for any October 2nd in history with just  1993 (49) and 1974 (44) being colder. At this time it is mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds and 74 here

Looks like KRMY was 51F (for just 2 obs 20 mins apart around 4 pm) as our high. Has to be a top-5 here as well if there were an actual data set I'd confirm that.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Any of this reaching the ground and helping y'all west end of the sub Peeps?? Hoping so

 

20201002 NEB Radar.PNG

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Down to 36F now. Not supposed to get any lower but they chose to maintain our frost advisory whether it's widespread is tbd

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Parts of the N GL's got their first signs that winter is coming as their first flakes of the season fell from the sky...this is from N WI...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1312040767662284801

 

Will there be more where that came from this month???  Last nights 00z EPS showing some hints that parts of the northern half of the Sub could indeed see chances of their 1st flakes of the season.  Based on what I'm starting to see towards the 15th-18th, after a long stretch of AN temps and tranquil weather that's forthcoming, I'm looking for shot of colder air and a storm system to develop across the central CONUS.  The Rockies AND parts of Cali will be seeing their first snows of the season later next weekend.  The weather is about to change for those folks and it couldn't come sooner enough.

2.png

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14 hours ago, westMJim said:

It looks like the official high at Grand Rapids will be 52. That will tie 2003 and 1961 for the 3rd coldest maximum at Grand Rapids for any October 2nd in history with just  1993 (49) and 1974 (44) being colder. At this time it is mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds and 74 here

Whoops that current temperature should have read 47 and not 74 LOL.

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Yesterday was a cool day as stated earlier the official high of 52 was tied for the 3rd coolest maximum for any October 2nd at Grand Rapids. Clouds held the overnight low here to 35 and that also was the official low at GRR. At this time it is cloudy and 40 here at my house. 

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On 10/2/2020 at 7:00 AM, Tom said:

Has anyone flipped on their furnace yet around the Lakes/MW region???  It was a chilly indoor temp of 63F this morning when I went downstairs and I'm still fighting the idea of turning it on.  My space heater is doing the trick for the time being in the family room.  I think I may turn it on later today but for now I'm alright.  It's currently the coolest morning of this autumn season (42F) and still may dip a degree or two.

With temps not really rebounding much more than 50-ish, I may also fire up the furnace to take a chill off. Two space heaters kept it reasonable overnight but we are creatures of comfort zones in this era and both baths here are far removed from the warm rooms thus quite chilly. We'll see. Looks like if I don't need it now, could go well into October without but prolly a good idea to test it versus waiting for a surprise, eh?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Ma Nature trolled GRR. After updating their grids (from 33F here to 37F) with warmer lows, we ended up scoring another 32F low. Neighbor is heading out with his fishing boat=brrr. Currently still in the 30s

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

With temps not really rebounding much more than 50-ish, I may also fire up the furnace to take a chill off. Two space heaters kept it reasonable overnight but we are creatures of comfort zones in this era and both baths here are far removed from the warm rooms thus quite chilly. We'll see. Looks like if I don't need it now, could go well into October without but prolly a good idea to test it versus waiting for a surprise, eh?

I live in a split level home so it’s hard to keep multiple rooms warm.  As I eat a warm bowl of soup, it’s helping me ease the chill for the time being.  However, with temps still in the 40’s along with overcast skies, I think I’ll  give in and flip it on later.  No need to wait any longer!  Lol. 

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Just looked at the forecast for next week. Back to 80’s everyday with low humidity, high fire danger, no rain chances. I’m just shaking my head again. I think our May-October has a chance to be one of the driest 6 month periods in our history, especially if the pattern doesn’t turn stormy in the 2nd half of this month. 

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I'm up in St Paul this weekend. Speaking of St Paul has anyone heard from StPaulStorm?? I haven't seen him post in a long time. Hope he's well.

Currently cloudy and cool at 46. Yesterday's high only reached 48 here.

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On 10/2/2020 at 2:33 AM, snowstorm83 said:

First frost advisory of the season, KLNK down to 35 already. In other news, I guess the next presidential debate will be on Zoom lmao 

Way too early to know. They still have plenty of time to decide. Personally, I hope not. That will suck tremendously.

Temps here are averaging BN for the month. Warm-up next week coming, but that only puts my area at near average. Although, I hear that 70s might be making a comeback by next weekend!!!

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Next Sunday and/or Monday 10/11-12 could be a gross day here. Upper 70s don't seem to be out of the question.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Good news: EPS shows a faint light at the end of this miserable tunnel, maybe echoing what Tom said.

Bad news: It's 2 weeks away.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I found some extra spare time, so I figure I share w this forum a few pics from Greece. Enjoy!

Pic#1 : Andros Island.....I live somewhere across the mountain and the beach that you see is where we swim and hang out. There are more beaches further away.

Pic#2 : Tinos Island....It is an island 1 hour and 45min away from Andros. Check out the map. They are very close together. There we went to visit this special church called "Saint Mary." You can stay all day for shopping, eating swimming and then leave by boat later in the afternoon. That is what we did. The island is quite small.

Pic#3: Tinos Island....having lunch before leaving and going back to Andros.

Pic#4: View from my house in Andros

Pic#5: View from the side of my house in Chios. If you look closely straight ahead, you will see Turkey. At nighttime, you can see the cars driving. Its extremely close and cool.

Pic#6 and #7: Greek style homemade Pizza and Cheeseballs made by my wife.

Pic#8: In a Greek bar in Andros having a few drinks w my best friend.

Finally Pic#9: Boat ride leaving for Athens and eventually back to Detroit..

 

 

 

 

Pic#1.jpg

Pic#2.jpg

Pic#3.jpg

Pic#4.jpg

Pic#5.jpg

Pic#6.jpg

Pic#7.jpg

Pic#8.jpg

Pic#9 .jpg

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@Niko

Nice pics bud. I didn't realize it's so arid on those islands. Almost no trees and even very little vegetation. Polar opposite of Michigan. Food sure looks tasty tho. I really like the old world architecture as well. Does one need to know how to speak Greek, or is English commonly used there?

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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It is only 21:38, the sky is completely clear (wasn't supposed to be), and there is zero wind. The temp is going to plummet. 41.5*F.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Already down to 39.2*F.

FGF has the low here at 32. Lol.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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12 hours ago, Niko said:

I found some extra spare time, so I figure I share w this forum a few pics from Greece. Enjoy!

Pic#1 : Andros Island.....I live somewhere across the mountain and the beach that you see is where we swim and hang out. There are more beaches further away.

Pic#2 : Tinos Island....It is an island 1 hour and 45min away from Andros. Check out the map. They are very close together. There we went to visit this special church called "Saint Mary." You can stay all day for shopping, eating swimming and then leave by boat later in the afternoon. That is what we did. The island is quite small.

Pic#3: Tinos Island....having lunch before leaving and going back to Andros.

Pic#4: View from my house in Andros

Pic#5: View from the side of my house in Chios. If you look closely straight ahead, you will see Turkey. At nighttime, you can see the cars driving. Its extremely close and cool.

Pic#6 and #7: Greek style homemade Pizza and Cheeseballs made by my wife.

Pic#8: In a Greek bar in Andros having a few drinks w my best friend.

Finally Pic#9: Boat ride leaving for Athens and eventually back to Detroit..

 

 

 

 

Pic#1.jpg

Pic#2.jpg

Pic#3.jpg

Pic#4.jpg

Pic#5.jpg

Pic#6.jpg

Pic#7.jpg

Pic#8.jpg

Pic#9 .jpg

One of the places I have on my bucket list to visit.  Love Greek food and great pics!

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First Frost Advisory of the season!

 

Quote

Frost Advisory


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
346 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019-020-103-041700-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FR.Y.0006.201005T0400Z-201005T1300Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Northern Cook-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake,
Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove,
Mundelein, Gurnee, Rochelle, Oregon, Byron, Dixon, DeKalb,
Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove,
Lombard, Carol Stream, Ottawa, Streator, La Salle, Mendota,
Marseilles, Oswego, Yorkville, Plano, Evanston, Des Plaines,
Schaumburg, Palatine, and Northbrook
346 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2020

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures in the low to mid 30s will result in areas
  of to potentially widespread frost.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left
  uncovered.

 

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Boy, after a couple chilly days and nights ahead, I love the looks of the 7 day forecast which shows plenty of 70's and sunshine.  Next weekend looks superb as round 2 of Indian Summer weather targets the region...possible upper 70's???  That's going to feel wonderful with a strong southerly breeze as a powerful storm system targets the west coast and then tracks into the Rockies.  The seasons 1st legit Autumn storm is poised to hit that part of the country and then track into the Upper MW region early the following week.  After a very quiet week of wx, it's going to pick up in activity for our Sub as we head towards the Week of the 12th.

In this fascinating world of wx, we have to think Globally to forecast Locally.  With that being said, in this LR post we take a gander towards East Asia to forecast our local wx pattern.  I typically like to pay attn to what is happening near the Sea of Okhkosh where there is a strong storm system about to track through today/tomorrow and due to this track, it will target the PAC NW/W NAMER coast in about 6 days or so.

 

Here is a map showing the near term forecast...

gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_9.png

 

 

Then the storm appears across the western N.A. coastline in 5-6 days...this type of pattern will keep the storm train coming into the west coast which will undoubetdly help the forest fires and begin building up the snow pack in the Rockies in A-typical La Nina fashion.

 

gfs_z500a_npac_29.png

 

Once again, the models are seeing another powerful storm tracking through the same parts of East Asia Day 10 which suggests to me another storm will hit the west coast about Oct 20th-21st but then this region may be replaced by a ridge which could lead to a western N.A. Ridge by the time we enter the week of the 25th.

gfs_z500a_npac_44.png

 

 

There are some major influencing factors I'm seeing in this developing LRC that will play a big role for our Sub and that starts in the Arctic as well as Greenland.  The big storm showing up early next week will be influenced by this blocking pattern and likely spin up a slow moving, strong autumn storm for the Upper MW.  It's nice to see the models advertising such a big system as we gear up and begin the process of setting up the new LRC pattern.

 

This 00z Euro 500mb map is pretty to look at as it gives hope for precip across the central Plains where they need it...did I mention that Greenland Block???  Fast forward 2 months and December could rock!

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

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For those of us who would like to get model data an hour earlier, only 30 days to go!  Nov 1st daylights savings ends at 2:00am CDT....meantime, sunrises keep coming later in the morning and sunsets earlier in the evening...the slow progression of Autumn continues!

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