seattleweatherguy Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, Phil said: Woof..that’s a phat azz ridge on the EPS. Legit though? Maybe record highs before it retrogrades? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 An orange sun rising well into the new water season. I don't think I remember that occurring this late in the year. Mid-30's and AQI around 150. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Foggy morning in Salem. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Just now, Timmy_Supercell said: An orange sun rising well into the new water season. I don't think I remember that this late in the year. Mid-30's and AQI around 150. Noticed the upper levels looked smokier again today here too. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Big daddy trade burst coming up. 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Big daddy trade burst coming up. Will this kill the evil ridge Phil? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 12 hours ago, Jesse said: Trying to make the best of this weather, got a nice hike on Mt. Adams in on Sunday. Up Stagman Ridge to Horseshoe meadows then down to Lookingglass Lake. Weather was mild but the fall colors were quite nice. Absolutely gorgeous! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, Jesse said: Will this kill the evil ridge Phil? Nope. But it will strengthen the la niña signature/upwelling wave. Ridge is being driven by extratropical processes and the seasonal transition. Remember we discussed the rapid retraction-extension-retraction cycle of the NPAC jet late last month? AAM and mountain torque? 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, Phil said: Big daddy trade burst coming up. OMG ITS HAPPENING! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Just now, Phil said: Nope. Ridge is being driven by extratropical processes and the seasonal transition. Remember we discussed the rapid retraction-extension-retraction cycle of the NPAC jet late last month? AAM and mountain torque? Yes. Confusing memories. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: Yes. Confusing memories. It’s a bit early for consistent ENSO signals to manifest in the middle latitudes. Seasonal transitions are..complicated. As the cold season wears on, La Niña should become increasingly dominant in terms of a canonical -ENSO wavetrain. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Phil said: It’s a bit early for consistent ENSO signals to manifest in the middle latitudes. Seasonal transitions are..complicated. As the cold season wears on, La Niña should become increasingly dominant in terms of a canonical -ENSO wavetrain. Back loaded warm seasons followed by back loaded cold seasons seem fairly typical for La Ninas, especially strong ones for whatever reason. This one has been pretty textbook with an average-ish summer giving way to a fairly ridgy first half of fall. For now, it would be nice to break out of this endless ridging somehow. Even if its a milder and wetter pattern. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 11 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Yeah it will be interesting to see how she measures up on the weather side of things, she seems to be a legit weather geek but time will tell. Sounds like she starts tomorrow night, so she will get indoctrinated with the systems coming through this weekend. We shall see what chemistry she brings to the show and our weather. I do miss Walter and his enthusiasm over weather events. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 My .08 mile morning commute. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 26 minutes ago, Phil said: It’s a bit early for consistent ENSO signals to manifest in the middle latitudes. Seasonal transitions are..complicated. As the cold season wears on, La Niña should become increasingly dominant in terms of a canonical -ENSO wavetrain. This is an easy post to read. Everyone thanks you. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttt Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 23 minutes ago, MossMan said: My .08 mile morning commute. Man... that is a seriously steep hill heading down from your chalet high in the mountains to your office right next to I-5. Do you often see mountain goats on that trek? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Man... that is a seriously steep hill heading down from your chalet high in the mountains to your office right next to I-5. Do you often see mountain goats on that trek? Says the guy who lives in a proverbial mountainside chalet and drives up/down a fairly steep grade to get to North Bend and other environs. Do you see mountain goats on your daily drive? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 29 minutes ago, MossMan said: My .08 mile morning commute. I’ve never understood why people (unless they have some serious physical disability) do things like drive distances that are an easy walk. I’d walk (or bike) that even in the rain. Sure, there’s no sidewalks, but it doesn’t look as if that’s a dangerous, busy road or anything. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Foggier this morning here. Should keep the temps less disgustingly hot. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jbolin said: Says the guy who lives in a proverbial mountainside chalet and drives up/down a fairly steep grade to get to North Bend and other environs. Do you see mountain goats on your daily drive? I do not see mountain goats here... but I have seen them on the sheer face of Mt Si. My comment was not about my location or picking on Randy. It was in reference to people who insist he lives up in the mountains. When in fact he is in within a flat, easy walk to I-5. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 51 minutes ago, Jesse said: Back loaded warm seasons followed by back loaded cold seasons seem fairly typical for La Ninas, especially strong ones for whatever reason. This one has been pretty textbook with an average-ish summer giving way to a fairly ridgy first half of fall. For now, it would be nice to break out of this endless ridging somehow. Even if its a milder and wetter pattern. Onset/1st year La Niñas (especially following healthy and/or multiyear +ENSO regimes) do indeed fit the description you give. Many of which (unsurprisingly) feature +QBO. At least this has been the case since the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976. Years w/ -QBO (and/or 2nd year niñas) seem to flip to +NPO earlier, but also are warmer and/or more zonal than 1st year niñas. Some examples are 2007/08, 1999/00, 2005/06, 1996/97, etc). This year is more in the 2016/17, 2010/11, 1995/96, 1988/89, 1970/71 camp. (2008/09 was a 2nd year +QBO Niña in a low pass -PNA/-NAO sub-era, so a bit different w/ the seasonal transition). 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 This is really cool. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/06/great-lakes-waterspout-outbreak/#click=https://t.co/TnTECjouwx Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 The GFS seems a lot more progressive than the Euro. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jesse said: The GFS seems a lot more progressive than the Euro. Which fits their respective biases. Kind of an oversimplification, but the Euro has historically been more meridional/cutoff-ULL-happy, and the GFS has historically been more progressive. At least over North America, in sum. I suspect they’ll meet in the middle somewhere. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Which fits their respective biases. Kind of an oversimplification, but the Euro has historically been more meridional/cutoff-ULL-happy, and the GFS has historically been more progressive. At least over North America, in sum. I suspect they’ll meet in the middle somewhere. The middle being another perma ridge I assume. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I’ve never understood why people (unless they have some serious physical disability) do things like drive distances that are an easy walk. I’d walk (or bike) that even in the rain. Sure, there’s no sidewalks, but it doesn’t look as if that’s a dangerous, busy road or anything. I take my Border Collies to work with me and my truck is their home base when they are not in the office with me. Otherwise yeah I would bike or walk more to work. 5 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I do not see mountain goats here... but I have seen them on the sheer face of Mt Si. My comment was not about my location or picking on Randy. It was in reference to people who insist he lives up in the mountains. When in fact he is in within a flat, easy walk to I-5. DUDE, you need to lighten up a bit Tim, C'mon it's October and we're all a little "jittery" and eagerly anticipating our first snowfall bust, get on board. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Had my 6th 50 or higher low for the month. Didn’t have any last October. Very foggy and 54 currently. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Happy free ECMWF maps day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Jbolin said: DUDE, you need to lighten up a bit Tim, C'mon it's October and we're all a little "jittery" and eagerly anticipating our first snowfall bust, get on board. Yes... I am so tense. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Just now, TT-SEA said: Yes... I am so tense. Good to know you'll always be YOU 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Just now, Jbolin said: Good to know you'll always be YOU OK... thanks for the update. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, GobBluth said: Happy free ECMWF maps day. Why is that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yes... I am so tense. I always like to imagine that every emoji that Tim posts is probably done with shaking hands from pure anger. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: I always like to imagine that every emoji that Tim posts is probably done with shaking hands from pure anger. You be you. Whatever gets you through the day. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 I’d like to be me being me...... during a major snowstorm w/flash freeze! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Retrogression. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Euro much improved. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 7, 2020 Report Share Posted October 7, 2020 Sun still has not broken through...cloudy and 58 here. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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