Gradient Keeper Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Historic Winter ahead. You heard it here first for the 94th time. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Something brewing. Night shift, synthwave tunes activated! 2 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Off brand. Unfortunate. Christmas is nearing though. https://www.amazon.com/Master-Artist-Bundle-Tabletop-Travel/dp/B07NS7N4TT/ref=asc_df_B07NS7N4TT/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=309806485576&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=17910798034351263051&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9061079&hvtargid=pla-650947949995&psc=1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 For kind of a rough guess at what is possible if tonight's runs verify I would think somewhere between the late October 1935 blast and the Nov 12, 1955 blast would be a pretty good rough guess at the coldest it could possibly be. Late October 1935 had freezing high temps in some places, and Nov 1955 has highs in the low 20s in a lot of places. Again...this is just speculation of what is the most intense cold that's possible around the time in question. The ECMWF solution looks like it could unquestionably bring record cold for most locations due to the fact the November records before the 12th or so are much less intense other than early Nov 1935. Fun to speculate at any rate. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Currently a very surprising 39 here. I see a lot of places are in the 50s right now. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Down to 37F. Another nice, chilly night. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 One thing that is getting really underlooked here is the building AK cold pool. That's going to come in handy especially early this winter w/ the arctic being so deprived of ice. Later in winter ice coverage should max out sufficiently enough so this shouldn't be too much of an issue, but early on we may need to rely on AK for our main cold air source. In fact, per demonstration Euro feeds cold air through the Yukon around D9-10. 1 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 1:52 AM 37.0, dewpoint 31.6 near West Gresham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 38 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 1:52 AM 37.0, dewpoint 31.6 near West Gresham Down to 37 here near East Damascus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: One thing that is getting really underlooked here is the building AK cold pool. That's going to come in handy especially early this winter w/ the arctic being so deprived of ice. Later in winter ice coverage should max out sufficiently enough so this shouldn't be too much of an issue, but early on we may need to rely on AK for our main cold air source. In fact, per demonstration Euro feeds cold air through the Yukon around D9-10. Good point. Yep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 00Z EPS was 'game on' after day 10... we might doing the cold November thing instead of the very wet November thing. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Looking nice. I like that we even have a small shot of cooler air brush us by to the east on the 30th/31st. Should end the month on a cool note. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 36 degrees this morning some dense fog out there. Was as low as 34 earlier before fog developed. Eighth consecutive sub-40 low. Nice change of pace after all the 50+ lows to start the month. The colors have really started to catch up around town the last few days, could be a rare Halloween peak this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 49 at SEA... and a crazy 55 at BLI this morning. And a chilly 37 out here... have not checked but I assume its relatively clear here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Down to 30F. 6th freeze already. This feels different than other late Octobers with cold temps & appears as though some sort of Washington & PDX-based event is on the possibly distant horizon. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 06z GFS looked fairly chilly in the long range as well. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: One thing that is getting really underlooked here is the building AK cold pool. That's going to come in handy especially early this winter w/ the arctic being so deprived of ice. Later in winter ice coverage should max out sufficiently enough so this shouldn't be too much of an issue, but early on we may need to rely on AK for our main cold air source. In fact, per demonstration Euro feeds cold air through the Yukon around D9-10. AK is never the cold air source for PNW region except in SSW situations like Feb 1989. And especially not in November. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Fog has become very dense here right before sunrise. PDX is reporting 1/8 mile visibility, probably the same or less here. 37 degrees. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 No fog here this morning which ended up allowing the temperature to drop to 31. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 49 at SEA... and a crazy 55 at BLI this morning. And a chilly 37 out here... have not checked but I assume its relatively clear here. I think that warmth here is from downsloping off the Chuckanut Mountains to the south. I've seen it happen before in some southerly flow situations. KBLI recorded a high of 61°F on Jan 3rd of this year. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I think that warmth here is from downsloping off the Chuckanut Mountains to the south. I've seen it happen before in some southerly flow situations. KBLI recorded a high of 61°F on Jan 3rd of this year. Yeah... the south wind was gusting to almost 30 mph there overnight. It dropped to S13 at 7 a.m. and the temp went down to 53. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 35 for a low with some fog. Nice to get some cold temperatures again. A pretty nice three night streak of cold nights down here. 31,29 and now 35 at my spot. Not bad for October. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Heavy drizzle here 45* thought it was going to be dry today? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, snow maniac said: Heavy drizzle here 45* thought it was going to be dry today? Another one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, snow maniac said: Heavy drizzle here 45* thought it was going to be dry today? Must be some upslope near the Olympics there. There is a weak warm front draped over WA. Normally that results in drizzle in my area... but its crystal clear here this morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, El_Nina said: Another one. Someone who doesn’t look at the models? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Someone who doesn’t look at the models? Pretty sure we all do. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 50 currently. Feels like spring! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Mild morning at 45 degrees. No drizzle here but cloudy. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Going downnnnn. 2 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Looks like the GFS GEM and EURO all are in agreement of a more interesting pattern developing early next month. They all look somewhat chilly by day 10. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC. There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO). 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 29 minutes ago, Phil said: Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC. There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO). Why don't you post stuff like this on a forum where people understand it? There is an American weather forum that is actually based around the eastern US. Or were you banned from that website at some point? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 12z looks chilly. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 12z looks chilly. Not too bad for this time of year. Considering we just had a decent cold shot of air getting another one not too long afterwards is nice. We will see though still over a week out. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 48 minutes ago, Phil said: Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC. There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO). Needs a little salt. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 52 minutes ago, Phil said: Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC. There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 28, 2020 Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 Morning shift is not quite as exciting as the night shift...Reminds me of the NWS Seattle Mets and their discussions. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 28, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2020 57 minutes ago, Phil said: Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC. There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO). 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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