bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 UKIE is north from last night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 UKIE strong for much of Iowa. Comes a little too far north for my house though. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 It seems a lot of times at this range, the UK and Euro end up similar to each other. I'm hoping the Euro is in the ballpark of what the UKIE shows. Just a little further south would be ideal for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Lock in the ukie 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 The UKIE has about 36 hours of snowfall in Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 About what time does the Ukie have precip entering central Iowa? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Around 6pm Friday is when the UK shows things amping up in Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 What the hell, UK? All models are going southeast and weaker, then the UK does this? 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 I'm still pleased with what the UK shows even though it teases me with 0.7" of snow while showing almost 10" just 30-40 miles away. Plenty of time for that to wobble. Here is a closeup. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: I'm still pleased with what the UK shows even though it teases me with 0.7" of snow while showing almost 10" just 30-40 miles away. Plenty of time for that to wobble. Here is a closeup. And thats at 10:1 lol. Whats it smoking? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 King Euro is running. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Hail to the king! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 25 minutes ago, bud2380 said: King Euro is running. KC to Chicago special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Chicago with 8+ this run again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Euro with a slight dip south this run. Just doesn’t have a huge area of precipitation in the cold sector. The line that gets all the snow is fairly narrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, gabel23 said: KC to Chicago special. Southern tier of NE and IA do well, Lincoln is on the wrong side of the gradient. GEFS mean is much more NW of the OP, but kind of weak totals until Madison, WI. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 12z Euro a little further north than I would like but continuing a good trend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Tom bullseye Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Still think it comes more north....2m temps in the 34-36 range up to Wi Il border for most of this. No cold air pushing south from up this way. 30's Fri and Sat with temps falling ton25 on Sunday. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 very interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 This is where we stand today and expect more changes. By Thursday or Friday at the latest is when things should begin to look more clearer and all sampled up by models. Accuweather quotes: Unless there is a drastic northwestward shift in the storm, Minneapolis should avoid a big snowfall and may avoid snow altogether this time. People in cities such as Omaha, Nebraska; Des Moines, Iowa; Peoria, Illinois; Lansing, Michigan; Madison, Wisconsin; and even Kansas City, Missouri; should closely monitor the forecast as subtle shifts in the storm track could mean the difference between snow showers and enough snow to shovel and plow. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Attm, its mostly cloudy w temps holding steady into the 30s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 I’m a little disappointed in the Euro. I hope the EPS is a little further NW and more importantly just more expansive with the snow shield on the NW side of the system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 PERFECT track for the low here. What could go wrong? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, bud2380 said: I'm still pleased with what the UK shows even though it teases me with 0.7" of snow while showing almost 10" just 30-40 miles away. Plenty of time for that to wobble. Here is a closeup. I could handle that.... 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 31 minutes ago, james1976 said: Tom bullseye Not always a good thing being in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Fun to look at and see these weenie runs come in off the Euro. I just got back inside from finishing my final clean up and mowed the grass nice and short. Its friggin' cold with the breeze that's been picking up throughout the morning. Just checked and it's only 33F right now. I've been used to feeling 70's/80's and warm sun instead of the cloudy and cold temps we've been having the past few days. I'm just starting to acclimate to this colder climate. Here's another look at the Euro...snow/mix line literally cuts right over Chicago and points south... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 EPS Mean is significantly further NW than the Euro. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: EPS Mean is significantly further NW than the Euro. A solid swath of 6" on the ensemble mean is pretty good. That suggests there are a lot of members just nw of the op. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 12z EPS...slight nudge SE the farther east... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Not the coldest airmass in place so maybe a couple inches down towards the the city of Chicago and the farther north and west you go will see the higher amounts...of course this can change but just my thinking at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 I made a new thread for the storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 Bring it North by about 400 moar miles!! 1 3 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 I can't say I recall seeing a 500mb map look like this before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 8, 2020 Report Share Posted December 8, 2020 59.5 for the high today. First 8 days of the month has averaged 49.1 degrees for the high here. 10 degrees above normal 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 8 hours ago, whatitdo said: - Potential Storm over this weekend with rain/snow mix The warmer temperatures through the latter half of the week will give way to a system that the latest model runs continually to trend cooler. Latest EC/GEFS continues to trend each successive run colder. However the main precipitation type for Saturday into Sunday remains rain but wet snow is possible at times. There are still some confidence issues with timing but currently it should be moving through midday Saturday through daytime Sunday. Looking at the anomalies, the best moisture will be over the region 18Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday, though there is some variance. So will have to keep an eye for adjustments as this system gets closer. Seems pretty reasonable especially this far out tbh It's reasonable, but other Mets who are known names with tenure and not actually known to favor winter actually sounded more convinced this would/could be an impactful storm even if a RN->SN scenario. This person stepped it backward, even tho mentioning each run looking colder. Just the usual inconsistencies. When a December acts like a winter month, maps like these from 2016 is what we're used to seeing: 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, jaster220 said: It's reasonable, but other Mets who are known names with tenure and not actually known to favor winter actually sounded more convinced this would/could be an impactful storm even if a RN->SN scenario. This person stepped it backward, even tho mentioning each run looking colder. Just the usual inconsistencies. When a December acts like a winter month, maps like these from 2016 is what we're used to seeing: For a sec there, I thought that was your extended forecast ...wow, that is one snowy look! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Attm, skies are clear w temps in the 30s. Not bad for this time of the year. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 @jaster220 @Niko This is the Low that I thought would target my area. Most models like the EC below are digging down through central Texas and along the Gulf. This run of the Euro Control has it moving up out of south central Texas toward Mich. Just something to keep an eye on. Maybe it will develop further west we shall see. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Back to zero flakes for me on extended GFS. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 59 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Back to zero flakes for me on extended GFS. Euro tho?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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