Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 18z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 I will assume that inch or so at the top of the coast range is overnight Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 One bit of encouraging news(and we need that!) is the 12z GEFS shows a stout SSW beginning just before Day 8. That's really encouraging rather than the signal initializing at Day 14. In fact, I do believe the GEFS has sped up timing too. 00z ECMWF in 6 hours 37 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Phil said: At the moment models are sticking with Putin’s house and Sara Palin’s backyard. Migraine inducing pattern regardless. The big league cold for now, yeah. But still looks like a lot more cold than we have been seeing for much of the mid latitudes, starting this week. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: At this point I would go with better than even odds of SLE pulling an average high above 50 this month. BRUTAL. What have we done to deserve this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, rsktkr said: BRUTAL. What have we done to deserve this? People stopped believing in Santa Claus. Back during our major outbreaks or snow storms of the past a significant % of Americans believed in a fat, white man in red suit who flew around on a sleigh pulled by mystical, magical reindeer. He targeted chimneys most often, but not wood stoves ironically. Yeah. Now? Not so much. 00z GEFS(Pivotal) in 5 hours 13 minutes 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2020 Report Share Posted December 9, 2020 Still plenty of snow shovels at Costco!!! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 IDK if it is just me, but I thought the 18z was OK. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: IDK if it is just me, but I thought the 18z was OK. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Had to come into the office. Nice evening. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Mountain snow looks better 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 I’ve lived somewhere between Eugene and Seattle all my life and it typically seems to be the case that the mother lode Arctic blasts come after a period of rather boring but normal weather, often mild and wet to the point that you just forget about the white stuff. The biggest death knell for anything severely cold afterward is one of these foggy death ridges we get trapped under for 7-10 days. When those happen, without fail , there is no Arctic air for at least 6-7 weeks. the 2016-17, 1992-93 and 1978-79 winters are the only “long cold winters” that I have lived through. Dec 1985 was cold but that was just a result of persistent high over extensive snow over from preceding November epic cold and snow. good happens bad happens yin and yang 2020...2021 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said: I’ve lived somewhere between Eugene and Seattle all my life and it typically seems to be the case that the mother lode Arctic blasts come after a period of rather boring but normal weather, often mild and wet to the point that you just forget about the white stuff. The biggest death knell for anything severely cold afterward is one of these foggy death ridges we get trapped under for 7-10 days. When those happen, without fail , there is no Arctic air for at least 6-7 weeks. the 2016-17, 1992-93 and 1978-79 winters are the only “long cold winters” that I have lived through. Dec 1985 was cold but that was just a result of persistent high over extensive snow over from preceding November epic cold and snow. good happens bad happens yin and yang 2020...2021 Hey, Paul! Real good to see you here. You may know me from Fox 12 Blog, "Rob S.E. Portland" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 If your biological clock is waking you up at 2am to check out the 6z and all you get is the same mild bull , it is time to put the phone down and wait two weeks. A 508dm upper low inside of 120h will then show up over PDX 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Mostly sunny with some scattered showers this afternoon, and one of the milder days of the month so far. 52/43 here, 54/43 at PDX. The good news is skies are clearing and the temperature is dropping quickly, so those lows should improve. Decent chance it will be foggy and in the 30s before too long this evening. Down to 45 currently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: I’ve lived somewhere between Eugene and Seattle all my life and it typically seems to be the case that the mother lode Arctic blasts come after a period of rather boring but normal weather, often mild and wet to the point that you just forget about the white stuff. The biggest death knell for anything severely cold afterward is one of these foggy death ridges we get trapped under for 7-10 days. When those happen, without fail , there is no Arctic air for at least 6-7 weeks. the 2016-17, 1992-93 and 1978-79 winters are the only “long cold winters” that I have lived through. Dec 1985 was cold but that was just a result of persistent high over extensive snow over from preceding November epic cold and snow. good happens bad happens yin and yang 2020...2021 Great point. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Great point. Andrew what did you think of my obs post for today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 years ago today was a pretty fun snowstorm. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 44 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: I’ve lived somewhere between Eugene and Seattle all my life and it typically seems to be the case that the mother lode Arctic blasts come after a period of rather boring but normal weather, often mild and wet to the point that you just forget about the white stuff. The biggest death knell for anything severely cold afterward is one of these foggy death ridges we get trapped under for 7-10 days. When those happen, without fail , there is no Arctic air for at least 6-7 weeks. the 2016-17, 1992-93 and 1978-79 winters are the only “long cold winters” that I have lived through. Dec 1985 was cold but that was just a result of persistent high over extensive snow over from preceding November epic cold and snow. good happens bad happens yin and yang 2020...2021 Sadistic as it seems, the first nine days of the month have been pretty encouraging. The brief blip of potentially-exceptional inversion cold followed by a quick-hitting retrogression/back door cold was a little disheartening. As it stands, I’d guess we’re much better off at this point when it comes to the long game... Or not!!! 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Normal, for a lack of a better word, is good. Normal works. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 If Alaska and the Yukon get as cold as forecast, the barrel is loaded and ready to fire. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: If Alaska and the Yukon get as cold as forecast, the barrel is loaded and ready to fire. And all bottled up there. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: And all bottled up there. For now.................. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Where is that graph that shows model accuracy from 1 day out to 2 weeks?? I think Mark posted it on the blog years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: People stopped believing in Santa Claus. Back during our major outbreaks or snow storms of the past a significant % of Americans believed in a fat, white man in red suit who flew around on a sleigh pulled by mystical, magical reindeer. He targeted chimneys most often, but not wood stoves ironically. Yeah. Now? Not so much. 00z GEFS(Pivotal) in 5 hours 13 minutes I still believe in Santa. He is out there, somewhere, lurking with his herd of reindeer, looking for that ever-elusive cookie and fresh unpasteurised cow milk. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, luminen said: I still believe in Santa. He is out there, somewhere, lurking with his herd of reindeer, looking for that ever-elusive cookie and fresh unpasteurised cow milk. Correct. Expect an extra gift this Christmas. 00z GFS in 24 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, luminen said: I still believe in Santa. He is out there, somewhere, lurking with his herd of reindeer, looking for that ever-elusive cookie and fresh unpasteurised cow milk. Or that ever-elusive snowstorm that buries the valley out to the coast with 24-36" widespread. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: One bit of encouraging news(and we need that!) is the 12z GEFS shows a stout SSW beginning just before Day 8. That's really encouraging rather than the signal initializing at Day 14. In fact, I do believe the GEFS has sped up timing too. 00z ECMWF in 6 hours 37 minutes 18z was a huge improvement in the strat. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: 18z was a huge improvement in the strat. and the Drunk Uncle leads the way! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: Or uphill. January averages 0.5F warmer than December here. For now... 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Nice timing for the increase in solar activity! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Already have fog quickly forming here. Going to be a spooky night! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Tyler Mode Posted December 10, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Three from Alaska...one from Battle Ground. There's a reason I go back to Alaska every year. 12 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 So about those bodies... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Phil said: 18z was a huge improvement in the strat. Let's keep it going! 00z GFS running right about now. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: For now... Yes. Maybe it’ll flip again. My dad used to tell me stories that were passed down from my grandfather about how amazing January used to be. Snow so deep that they ran out of places to pile it. And cold so cold that the ocean would freeze over. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: So about those bodies... I say let them hit the floor. Like the PNA!!! 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Pivotal stuck at HR 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I say let them hit the floor. Like the PNA!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 10, 2020 Report Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Pivotal stuck at HR 6 Pretty typical. Expect the next 40 hours all at once in a few minutes lol 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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