December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Jesse]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Do you act the same in person or is this just an internet personality? Jw cause some ppl act the same while some act different. 

I think most of the regulars have a pretty impressive alter-ego built up at this point.

That was meant to be a self depricating comment btw. I wasn't calling him that.

[jakerepp]

14 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Been a good while since I’ve received any ranty DMs, must be a sign that I’m at least considered tolerable around here

What the hell? I've never received a ranty DM. I gotta up my game.

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don’t think people are freaking out at all, just discussing the models which show nothing of interest in the near term. 

A little freak out, and then of course Jesse freaking out because it doesn’t happen to be the point he decides to freak out.

[TacomaWaWx]

Starting to doubt it’ll ever snow again. 

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

A little freak out, and then of course Jesse freaking out because it doesn’t happen to be the point he decides to freak out.

Yes, my yearly winter meltdowns are so epic.

I'm a cheap date these days. As long as we are getting decent precip, snow in the mountains and modestly cool temps I am pretty happy. True cold and lowland snow is just a bonus if it happens.

[Jesse]

Looks like a rain band is approaching the metro area this early afternoon.

PDX is already up to 45 though, so no sub-45 high today. Tomorrow could be a decent bet.

[paulb/eugene]

Looking at CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day analog composites, about half of the analogs have some arctic air reaching PDX within 2-5 weeks afterward and the other half no Arctic air for the remainder of winter, and none had Arctic air sooner than two weeks out from analog dates.

of course the assumption is made the analog composite pattern will pan out, which is not likely to happen precisely at all.

If I were a Las Vegas NWS forecaster taking over the job of PDX office, I would put my chips on second half of January for Arctic event , otherwise just enjoy the valley rain and Cascade snow until then

 

 

 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

Looking at CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day analog composites, about half of the analogs have some arctic air reaching PDX within 2-5 weeks afterward and the other half no Arctic air for the remainder of winter, and none had Arctic air sooner than two weeks out from analog dates.

of course the assumption is made the analog composite pattern will pan out, which is not likely to happen precisely at all.

If I were a Las Vegas NWS forecaster taking over the job of PDX office, I would put my chips on second half of January for Arctic event , otherwise just enjoy the valley rain and Cascade snow until then

 

 

 

I didn't downvote this post!

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I didn't downvote this post!

I was downvoted by you within seconds of making a similar winter forecast in October.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I didn't downvote this post!

Are you feeling OK?

[Omegaraptor]

49 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Jesse is always really rude to you for no reason. You are a very nice kid and handle it well. 

 

42 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I like him just fine too. Smart and has a lot of knowledge/interest in climate for being so young. Seems like it’s rare to see him ever be happy about any weather event though. It’s a bad, weenie-esque mindset I know all too well, so I give him a hard time about it.

It’s often with a smile on my face, but I could tone it down if everyone finds it to be unbearably offensive.

I have no problem admitting that I am a weenie, one with salt left over from Feb 2019 and Jan 2020, so I often act as such. And admittedly, Jesse, just like Tim, is not exactly a difficult user to troll. Sometimes it’s just me trolling, but often Jesse does make a good point. Our weather preferences are different and that’s just the way it will be, we’re not going to change each other’s preferences.

I don’t dislike Jesse. We may have had some issues earlier this year but we smoothed them out. I’m sure if we met in person we would get along just fine.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Are you feeling OK?

I like a lot of posts. Just not the shitty ones  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I like a lot of posts. Just not the shitty ones  

I’d be too embarrassed to continue posting here if I hated most of my posts.

[Gradient Keeper]

The ensembles weren't terrible. I suppose. They all show a similar signal for heights to build quickly around ~160 W. The CMCE is the most bullish. It looks like the Pacific may shut down.

18z GFS in 21 minutes

[Deweydog]

Today’s fun fact:

PDX bottomed out today on their average low at 35 degrees.

Very good possibility this may be their last run of 35 degree average lows during our lifetime.

Happy Thursday!!!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The ensembles weren't terrible. I suppose. They all show a similar signal for heights to build quickly around ~160 W. The CMCE is the most bullish. It looks like the Pacific may shut down.

18z GFS in 21 minutes

 

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The ensembles weren't terrible. I suppose. They all show a similar signal for heights to build quickly around ~160 W. The CMCE is the most bullish. It looks like the Pacific may shut down.

18z GFS in 21 minutes

Perhaps we should all pool some money together and purchase a large ice making machine.  Dump all of it into the Pacific and see if we could get it to drop about 20 degrees.  Would be very interesting to see how that would affect our climate.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

 

Perhaps we should all pool some money together and purchase a large ice making machine.  Dump all of it into the Pacific and see if we could get it to drop about 20 degrees.  Would be very interesting to see how that would affect our climate.

Yeah I wonder what role if any the blob is playing.

[TacomaWaWx]

Wonder if we will ever have a sub 40 high temp again either. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah I wonder what role if any the blob is playing.

Do you have a SST anomaly map handy?

[FroYoBro]

23 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I like a lot of posts. Just not the shitty ones  

By the way my comment wasn’t an attempt to make today into “hate Jesse day”. It just seems like you are a little harsh with omega sometimes. It may just be your humor, but it’s hard to read online. 

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

By the way my comment wasn’t an attempt to make today into “hate Jesse day”. It just seems like you are a little harsh with omega sometimes. It may just be your humor, but it’s hard to read online. 

It was hard for me to understand jesses humor when I started on here. Every now and then I’m still not sure if he’s joking. Majority of the time he’s just trying to be funny. 

[Jesse]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Today’s fun fact:

PDX bottomed out today on their average low at 35 degrees.

Very good possibility this may be their last run of 35 degree average lows during our lifetime.

Happy Thursday!!!

I’m gonna start calling you lil’ Greta.

Honestly, things have been warming for so long I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see some sort of modest dip or snapback in our lifetimes. Or not. The global climate is an immensely complex thing and to quote Chris, we just don’t know.

[Timmy Supercell]

Looks like Mt. Scott is back. 

[TacomaWaWx]

42 here kinda chilly, should end up the coldest day this month so far after most of the last week has been in the low 50s. 

[Jesse]

21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It was hard for me to understand jesses humor when I started on here. Every now and then I’m still not sure if he’s joking. Majority of the time he’s just trying to be funny. 

Definitely trying, not always succeeding.

Not to make excuses. There are also times I’m just being a straight up a**. And for those I apologize.

[FroYoBro]

It is still under 45 degrees here with rain approaching!

 

WOWOWOWOWOW

[TT-SEA]

49 here with a light east wind and high clouds.

[Deweydog]

Air mass gets fairly chilly over the next  couple days.

[SouthHillFrosty]

18z is running!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

By the way my comment wasn’t an attempt to make today into “hate Jesse day”. It just seems like you are a little harsh with omega sometimes. It may just be your humor, but it’s hard to read online. 

By the way, I don’t hate Jesse; I was just having a little fun trolling him. Mostly, I find his antics here amusing.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Air mass gets fairly chilly over the next  couple days.

Could be some slushy windshield splats up this way.  Maybe a slushy skiff over on the mainland with a little elevation. Might only accumulate on the bark dust. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looks like Vancouver could see some flakes fly, possibly some in the upper foothills in Washington also

[Rubus Leucodermis]

42°F and overcast, with no nearby rain according to the radar.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Could be some slushy windshield splats up this way.  Maybe a slushy skiff over on the mainland with a little elevation. Might only accumulate on the bark dust. 

All the while it’ll be in the mid 60’s at Tim’s house.

[jakerepp]

47 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Wonder if we will ever have a sub 40 high temp again either. 

It's only gotten up to 41 here today!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It should be cold enough to snow here Saturday morning, but well before that happens it is now forecast to be dry, so snowflakes have vanished from my forecast.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

All the while it’ll be in the mid 60’s at Tim’s house.

Don't know what to tell you... it still in the upper 40s out here.

 

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Don't know what to tell you... it still in the upper 40s out here.

 

Sounds delightful!

[jakerepp]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks like Vancouver could see some flakes fly, possibly some in the upper foothills in Washington also

Looks like a few flakes in the Oklahoma panhandle region as well. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

If there is a continuing conversation that pops up revolving around how much each poster does/does not hate a certain other poster, I would say that the problem lies with the certain other poster. Maybe a quick self-reflection on why people feel the need to disclaim their love/hate for him and what could be the cause behind that.

Or not. He could also just continue on and wait until this conversation comes up again in a couple weeks at which point he'll play the "I'm only joking when I'm not joking" card again. That works too.

He’s the worst guy ever!