December 29th - 30th Snowstorm

[bud2380]

It's been awhile since I have looked at Cobb output on a storm.  Here is CID on the 00z GFS run.  It shows 1.14" of qpf falling entirely as snow, before a transition to some sleet then freezing rain, about .27" of a wintry mix, and then about .3" of plain old rain, yuck. So it's going to be interesting.  Better enjoy the snow while it's falling because it will turn very wet and slushy after. 

 

 

 

[bud2380]

Cobb output also shows the 12.8" falling in about 6-7 hours.  So this would be extremely heavy rates for a sustained period of time.  That's why you gotta believe these totals are over done by 4-6".  That puts the range more 6-8" than 12"+.  Unless colder air wins out and it stays snow for longer. 

[Hawkeye]

UK

[bud2380]

Ukie keeps putting the bullseye right through Iowa City.  Me rikey.  Best part of all of this, is I am off work the next two days, so I'll get to sit home and enjoy this all while the snow falls. 

[Hawkeye]

Some models see a big surge of sleet into Iowa while others don't.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local forecast now says maybe 3” by tomorrow morning then freezing rain the rest of the time.  That wouldn’t be ideal. 

[bud2380]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

Some models see a big surge of sleet into Iowa while others don't.

Yeah, that will be the key to snow totals.  Moisture is there for sure.  The depth of the cold air and it's ability to hold off the warm air for as long as possible will let us know.  Pretty impossible to forecast that exact transition, but at least it will start as snow and not have to wait and wait and wait for it to change over.  I'm hoping the UK and Canadian are handling the thermals better. 

[earthandturf]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

UK

UK looks a lot like the Canadian now.

[GDR]

[CentralNebWeather]

Here comes King Euro. Any last minute curve balls? 

[Stormhunter87]

35 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Good ol' Jim Flowers mentioned the lightning showing up in the HRRR and the SREF higher numbers likely to verify if there was convection

 

Was wondering if he was going to post up his thoughts. I'll have to find it. He is old school on his forecast so a little more depth to his forecast.

[Minny_Weather]

Welp, nothing to do now but hope it overachieves here.

[bud2380]

Euro appears a couple hours faster this run, so we might get more of this snow falling during daylight hours over here, which would be very welcome. 

[bud2380]

Euro still has the heaviest axis from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque.  Transitions to ice down in Iowa City sooner, cutting down on totals.

 

[bud2380]

Per Kuchera maps, Euro has 6" in CR and 5" in Iowa City between noon and 6pm.  So plenty of daylight viewing to watch it rip.  The kids will be so excited. 

[Hawkeye]

Euro is gradually lowering totals over sw into central Iowa.

[bud2380]

Kuchera totals matchup about 10:1, so not much different than the other map.

 

[Hawkeye]

Again, very little snow in southern Iowa from Euro because of sleet.

[CentralNebWeather]

Not exactly what many were hoping for. Looks like less totals on the 12z Euro. From a week ago to this, got to say I’m disappointed but not shocked for my area. 

[bud2380]

Actually on the northern end, they are quite a bit higher than 10:1, but from DSM to DBQ, 10:1 seems about right.  PDC, WI shows 8" on Kuchera but 4.9" on 10:1

[james1976]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Actually on the northern end, they are quite a bit higher than 10:1, but from DSM to DBQ, 10:1 seems about right.  PDC, WI shows 8" on Kuchera but 4.9" on 10:1

Higher for my area too. Hope kuchera verifies

[East Dubzz]

Cut that Kuchera total in half and I’d still be pleased!

[GDR]

[Hawkeye]

It would be nice to get out of the 4-5" friend zone we often get stuck in.

[CentralNebWeather]

My prediction here is 2.5”. I hope that I’m not overestimating. Though I’d love the Canadian and RGEM amounts, I just don’t see consensus for them. Gosh I’d love to be wrong. 

[Minny_Weather]

33 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

My prediction here is 2.5”. I hope that I’m not overestimating. Though I’d love the Canadian and RGEM amounts, I just don’t see consensus for them. Gosh I’d love to be wrong. 

Same boat here. I wouldn't be surprised if I didn't even get 2 with how this Winter has gone here.

[OmahaSnowFan]

59 minutes ago, Stormhunter87 said:

Was wondering if he was going to post up his thoughts. I'll have to find it. He is old school on his forecast so a little more depth to his forecast.

I saw his post on one of the Omaha National Weather Service Facebook page posts from this morning...

[Niko]

Looks like I get a couple of inches of snow per Euro on this storm, b4 it switches over. Ugh...big ol' mess coming.

[Tom]

The 12z EPS is inching closer and closer for a decent plowable event over here...3" mean for ORD (3-4" thump?) which I will gladly take (stat padder for the abysmal December)...of course, it'll all be gone by the New Year anyway from the RN that is coming.

 

 

[Niko]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

The 12z EPS is inching closer and closer for a decent plowable event over here...3" mean for ORD (3-4" thump?) which I will gladly take (stat padder for the abysmal December)...of course, it'll all be gone by the New Year anyway from the RN that is coming.

 

 

Sometimes in this situation, it can overachieve and get a lot more snow than expected. It has happened multiple times in the past b4 the swtich.

[jcwxguy]

Hrrr is good for fremont, omaha, lincoln, although has sleet make it to Lincoln

 

 

 

[hlcater]

GFS and NAM really love lifting that sleet line. No other model does that and either remains primarily, or all, snow in Cedar Rapids. Due to the nature of overachieving WAA, I am gonna expect at least a period of sleet. First call for Cedar Rapids is 6". If we can avoid a changeover (or the event isn't over quicker than expected, which also seems to happen a lot in WAA event) then we could see those 9 or 10 inch outputs by some models, but for now, I'm gonna bet against those happening.

[bud2380]

I'm going to call 6" here in Tiffin as well.  I think heavy snowfall rates will make up for what may be an eventual changeover to sleet.  That warm nose always seems to make it up to I80.  Hopefully it's just slower to changeover and stays mostly snow.  

[bud2380]

18z HRRR keeps the heaviest band of snow right through CR.  This would be crazy impressive if it were to materialize.

[GDR]

[james1976]

KWWL has 6-10 with isolated 12"

[East Dubzz]

If I had to make a guess at this time, I’d go with 5-8” here.

Yeah, I’m being real gusty here going with the NWS forecast.. I know. But it just makes sense.

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

KWWL has 6-10 with isolated 12"

Wow! And they are normally very conservative.  

[Grizzcoat]

From very conservative KCCI in Des Moines.

[snowstorm83]

I’ve kind of lost interest but good luck everybody. I’m not coming back to town until 30th now anyways. I won’t complain if I return to a few inches on the ground though!