TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Kayla said: Back to back runs. Nice to see. Now its more meaningful... it will be interesting to see if the EPS picks up on something tonight. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, Phil said: It was triggered by that crazy pattern in Dec 2008. While 1989 was concurrent. I assume the PV was weaker in December 2008, allowing the -ENSO/+QBO to do its work? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Those Cascades are pretty amazing. You guys can quit bitching about your SCR. I have had a whopping 0.00 of rain today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Those Cascades are pretty amazing. You guys can quit bitching about your SCR. I have had a whopping 0.00 of rain today. You sound like a whiny little ***** today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: I assume the PV was weaker in December 2008, allowing the -ENSO/+QBO to do its work? It was strong aloft but tilted with height, and the lower levels were being blasted. That was a bottom-up wave-2 with a stacked Aleutian High all the way from the troposphere to the stratopause. Might be decades before we see another one like that. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 00z GEFS Day 10.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 It was technically a SSW in 2013 that knocked over the first domino leading to the inception of “the blob”. Figures it might be a SSW that, likewise, puts an end to the blob. SSTA change over the last 7 days has a legit -PMM signature. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, puyallupjon said: You sound like a whiny little ***** today. You are way off, but ok. I don't even want the 45-50 degree rain I would have gotten today. I haven't the need to whine for anything, life is too good to let the weather get me down. I was just making a statement, good evening to you as well, Jon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 I wonder when the cold front passed here? 1 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 25 minutes ago, Phil said: That’s a lot of blocking. Really the only signal that matters in the LR. 4 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Front Ranger said: Really the only signal that matters in the LR. I agree. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Really the only signal that matters in the LR. Anchorage is forecast to have a low temperature of -1 tonight. What will it be in 2 weeks?? That is the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: It was technically a SSW in 2013 that knocked over the first domino leading to the inception of “the blob”. Figures it might be a SSW that, likewise, puts an end to the blob. SSTA changes over the last 7 days have a legit -PMM signature. Suddenly, SSWs control everything... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Suddenly, SSWs control everything... They can and sometimes do trigger intradecadal climate shifts. Or be the harbingers of them. Always a chicken/egg dilemma there. In fact, the majority of the “climate shifts” in the Pacific (PMM/PDO) were instigated by SSW events. Not just 2006 and 2013, but also the “great switch” in 1977. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 31 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: It won’t get that cold, not with that pathetic block. Gfs always overestimates how cold the air is in the long range. Most of the Arctic air is still in Putin’s backyard during this timeframe. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Had a tree fall on one of our homes at work. No one hurt, but definitely frightening for the residents. Been having to arrange temporary lodging. I don’t like wind! Glad nobody got hurt. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 23 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: I wonder when the cold front passed here? Heh, I wish cold fronts did that here. Usually the temp spikes and dewpoint plunges thanks to downsloping unless it’s a big dog airmass. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Solid westward trend in that ridge over the last four GEFS runs. Persistent signal for high latitude blocking as well. Hopefully this is indicative of some kind of imminent pattern shift. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Suddenly, SSWs control everything... I’m pretty sure I lost my virginity as a result of a splitting PV. 1 3 1 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: I’m pretty sure I lost my virginity as a result of a splitting PV. Analogs? 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Solid westward trend in that ridge over the last four GEFS runs. Persistent signal for high latitude blocking as well. Hopefully this is indicative of some kind of imminent pattern shift. Yep. It's coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’m pretty sure I lost my virginity as a result of a splitting PV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 52 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Underwhelmed indeed. It was just blustery here earlier in the day with the one gust at 30 mph. Like I posted earlier today the Puget Sound was laying flat down here with a wind advisory in place. Anyhow, jakerepp got that dog posted right away so feeling better. Pfft. Max gust of 48 mph at KBLI. Anything under 50 is not really a windstorm. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: Most of the snow here that season came with that little mid February shot. It’s actually one of my earliest weather memories. I don’t remember the cold dry blast we had early in the month but I do remember the big mid month snowstorm. Close to 18” here with that. I always figured it was a dry blast, but it looks like the Nanaimo - Parksville area had over a foot of snow with the early month blast. Must have been some significant snowsqualls crossing the strait with that one. Coombs reported an 11.3F/9.5F day with 14" of snow on Feb 1, 1989. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Analogs? Happened during a really crappy winter. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Great GFS run tonight and some ensemble members are following suit. Nice to see the operational and control both going for legit cold well before the 20th! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Happened during a really crappy winter. Alright, time to hang the banner. SSW actually stands for "Sham Snow for Weenies" and the pattern will evolve into endless split flow until next October when we'll get a dry blast into the low 40's for highs. Rampant wildfires by late April. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Down to 40 degrees Up to .88” of rainfall on the day. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 We actually have a legit shot at the first significant cold / snow event in the last half of January for the Western Lowlands since 1996. Pretty big deal if we pull it off. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Be a shame if the puppies of 2021 were already shelved. I haven’t even made it to the hound group yet. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Wow! The GEFS control drops to -15 by Jan 17 or 18. 1 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 SEA is at 1.21 for the day... and 1.63 for the month. Already 30% of the monthly average in just 2 days. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Good Lord... Given just how much of a snoozefest this winter has been outside 1 afternoon, I for one am very encouraged to see the models depicting the below pattern. I was hoping (and expecting) to see this start at some point. Look at all that beautiful high latitude blocking, not to mention the Pacific is getting quieted down a bit. Plus it's only the 17th... Don't have to wait till the 20th+ day of January. Cold air will work itself out. Let's get the 500mb pattern on the right track at least. Edit: The Northern Hemisphere view shows the blocking even better. -PNA, -EPO, -NAO... I mean, come on... I totally agree. All of that high latitude blocking along with the block over the Pacific would be big time cold for us. That high latitude stuff has tendency to lock things in also. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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