Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Arctic air trying to spill south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 I asked for a pullback, I got a pullback. Hopefully that feature just...goes away... Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 When does the 6z EURO run, and I think it only has guidance to 6 days? I am wondering how it handles the ridge merger and kona/cut-off low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: When does the 6z EURO run, and I think it only has guidance to 6 days? I am wondering how it handles the ridge merger and kona/cut-off low. or is it 3 days? I can't remember. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: When does the 6z EURO run, and I think it only has guidance to 6 days? I am wondering how it handles the ridge merger and kona/cut-off low. It would have it in view I think. FWIW the 00z didn't have it, and the GFS has a tendancy to do these kinds of things. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 That cutoff low did some serious damage to the cold pool. Rebuilding as the next few frames come into play... 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, Meatyorologist said: That cutoff low did some serious damage to the cold pool. Rebuilding as the next few frames come into play... Yeah cut-offs SUCK. 12z GFS in 4 hours 59 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Super LR could go nuts, though. -NAO pressing on a building cold pool in SW Canada and heights exploding over the Pacific. Would like that Pacific block to organize a bit more east. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 On to the 12z. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 At least I score a nice east wind storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 I'd imagine the ensembles will still take a step back. This is the pullback phase. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Well that sucked! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Good morning! Still no power, just got back from the gas station...So far I have gone though about 18 gallons for the generator. About 54hrs powerless now. This last windstorm definitely ranks in my top 5 coming in at 5. Currently light drizzle and 44 degrees. .03” so far on the day. 1 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, MossMan said: Good morning! Still no power, just got back from the gas station...So far I have gone though about 18 gallons for the generator. About 54hrs powerless now. This last windstorm definitely ranks in my top 5 coming in at 5. Currently light drizzle and 44 degrees. .03” so far on the day. D**n. How many gallons of fuel have you burned through? Generators are great, but they get annoying after a few hours because they aren't exactly quiet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Man, looks like the night shift took the wind out of the sails. No comments for over an hour! Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 hour ago, dolt said: D**n. How many gallons of fuel have you burned through? Generators are great, but they get annoying after a few hours because they aren't exactly quiet. I read 18. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Little by little... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Jesse said: I read 18. Lol. I need some coffee. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, dolt said: Lol. I need some coffee. Think we all could use some iced coffee! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 That cutoff low isn't helping things but models very rarely know what to do with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Let’s see if the 12z can stage a comeback. I would sure feel better if the GEM was on board. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Let’s see if the 12z can stage a comeback. I would sure feel better if the GEM was on board. who needs the gem when you have the CFS? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, Jesse said: Think we all could use some iced coffee! At least the models show that winter will be returning, regardless of any snow that may fall. I'm completely over this torchfest that we've had for a few weeks. I can't wait to head up to the mountains, they are in pathetic shape at the moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Unfortunately, as exciting as the GFS was last night. It was an extreme cold outlier. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 12z gfs looks like a 00z lite. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 GFS looks like reality crashing back to earth. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 That ridge configuration is changing drastically each run, i know it hasnt been mentioned yet, but i would expect a lot of VOLATILITY in future runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 The GFS is all over the place with the ridging this run. Especially the ridge at day 8. The last five runs show 5 different looks for it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Come on goofus, pick a lane and stay in it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 We now turn our attention towards the first week of February. 1 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Come on goofus, pick a lane and stay in it. As Dewey says volitilty is the name of this game. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Consistent theme with the really good runs is they bridge the NAO block with the PNA/EPO block. The more mediocre runs keep them separated to a degree. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 Gorgeous blocking ridge by day 9, albeit a bit too far offshore. Too bad the stuff earlier has trended worse. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 GEM looks a bit better. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 7 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: We had a heavy thump of snow on this night last year. 15” fell that night with about 12” falling in ~4.5hrs That band was impressive, like an intense CZ coming down the Strait. I doubt we match last January's event in terms of cold or snow, but places further south should do better than last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Consistent theme with the really good runs is they bridge the NAO block with the PNA/EPO block. The more mediocre runs keep them separated to a degree. NAO is GOD. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: PDO is GOD. Fixed. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 15, 2021 Report Share Posted January 15, 2021 12z GEM is much improved. 5 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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