Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Do at least have to wonder with some of these miraculously mild scenarios about the earlier pontifications about the post-SSW alter ego of February 2019... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Do at least have to wonder with some of these miraculously mild scenarios about the earlier pontifications about the post-SSW alter ego of February 2019... Or maybe it will be like 2019... it seemed pretty hopeless at times in the second half of January that year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Or maybe it will be like 2019... it seemed pretty hopeless at times in the second half of January that year. Total mystery at this point. I don’t think any scenario is off the table over the next few weeks. Anything from a major AR to an actual 2021 version of February 1989. 4 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just keep waiting guys. Our half inch of wet slop in early March that melts in 2 hours will eventually come. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1929 redux https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-weather-pattern-forecast-january-2021-usa-europe-fa/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Total mystery at this point. I don’t think any scenario is off the table over the next few weeks. Anything from a major AR to an actual 2021 version of February 1989. Most of the forum has already made its mind up for the 9th time this week that it’s over. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Most of the forum has already made its mind up for the 9th time this week that it’s over. *10th time this week alone actually but who’s counting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: 1929 redux https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-weather-pattern-forecast-january-2021-usa-europe-fa/ We wish. That was a great winter in the PNW. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Ensembles still look kind of ok. You can see what a warm outlier the operational is at least. That said, they have also gotten steadily milder the last few days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Most of the forum has already made its mind up for the 9th time this week that it’s over. Certain windows of opportunity will start to close pretty soon, but it’s all relative. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Jesse said: Ensembles still look kind of ok. You can see what a warm outlier the operational is at least. That said, they have also gotten steadily milder the last few days. Cooling as we approach winter. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 One more comment on those ensembles. The operational is a bit on the warm side. It is possible we enter a stretch of average to slightly below average temperatures. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Trio of cutoff lows streaming down western North America looks alien to me and downright fake like in a movie 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 The Euro looks like it's trying to keep things going at day 9. Much wider base to the ridge. Looks like the 0Z which was somewhat promising, 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted January 16, 2021 Author Popular Post Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 The 82hr power outage is officially over! And I might need to take the plow off the mower and mow...Grass is getting long. I do think I will see snow falling in the next 10 days and beyond. 10 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Even though the recent runs aren’t arctic, they still show our chilliest run of weather for the winter so far starting next week. Of course that isn’t saying a lot. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Acer said: The Euro looks like it's trying to keep things going at day 9. Much wider base to the ridge. Looks like the 0Z which was somewhat promising, Much more plausible and potentially favorable. Models seem to be overzealous in developing all sorts of mini upper lows in chaotic fashion. I am no professor of fluid dynamics physics but when you have two blocking highs approaching another it is like putting like polarity magnets together and shi’t happens. A more consolidated flow pattern makes more sense or is much more understandable to say the least 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Not suggesting anything but I bet Storm King was a result of a setup like we may be dealing with next week with cutoff low pinching off the coast and Arctic airmass returning to interior in time. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Total snow over the next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF. Pathetic for the Cascades but the Sierras look to get a decent amount. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Not suggesting anything but I bet Storm King was a result of a setup like we may be dealing with next week with cutoff low pinching off the coast and Arctic airmass returning to interior in time. Yeah this thing is definitely a puppies breakfast. I have a feeling we are going to come out of this in good shape. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Mostly sunny here now... nice day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Well atleast hope its sunny and not 40s and rain 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Windshield wiper effect. Model solutions vacillate all the time. If you know what’s causing the vacillation then you might be able to determine where the solution ends up. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 I got new windshield wipers in my Christmas stocking. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 It appears the 12z EPS isn't going to dig the trough out over the ocean as much. This thing is still very much alive. BTW the 6z parallel GFS was very cold for those who didn't see it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 This EPS is indeed tucked closer to the coast and colder. A notch closer and we would be golden. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This EPS is indeed tucked closer to the coast and colder. A notch closer and we would be golden. 12Z EPS does not look that great though... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Total snow over the next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF. Pathetic for the Cascades but the Sierras look to get a decent amount. That is a very good thing they desperately need it/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Interestingly the potential is beginning to show itself for other opportunities even if the initial shot biffs it. The ECMWF like the idea of an MJO emergence in 7 at the end of the month which is also favorable. In the shorter range it's coming down to relatively small details that have big implications. In a cases like that things can and probably will change rapidly on the models. The pieces are there....we'll just have to see how it pans out. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 FWIW... the control run looks like the operational run at day 10. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS does not look that great though... It was better a couple of days before that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: FWIW... the control run looks like the operational run at day 10. Yeah...getting that cutoff low out of the way would really help. Either that or swing it inland to the south. At any rate this is far from decided. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Yeah...getting that cutoff out of the way would really help. Either that or swing it inland to the south. At any rate this is far from decided. Might still work out. Looks like the EPS will be right with deep troughing along the West Coast and a GOA ridge like it has been showing for the last 10 days. But the details within that trough determine everything and there are many ways it can still end up a dud even with all the big puzzle pieces in place. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Don’t write off the first week of February. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 12Z EPS... 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 50F and partly cloudy. Nice day! 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Weather model riders....We... We just can't throw this together at the last minute. So, here's what you're gonna do. You're, your gonna post the models to us whatever you have. And we're gonna go over them step by step so there's no foul-ups. I don't have to tell you we're all little tired out here. Springs getting awfully big in the window. Apollo 13 Jim Lovell 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 14 years ago it was pretty snowy out. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 Sun break! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 16, 2021 Report Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Macy just checked out the 12z and it’s breaking her heart. I used to have a dog named Macy. Weird. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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