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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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16 minutes ago, Ray said:

Thanks Tim.  From just poking around it looks like daytime temps will be above freezing.  Do you know of specific cities (worst areas on that route) we should monitor for weather conditions?  I'm debating on advising her to go I-5 or 101.  There are pluses and minuses for both.  Thanks again!

There aren't really any cities in that area where the snow is likely to be the most significant.   I am guessing maybe the town of Mt. Shasta CA (elev 3,586) is one area to watch.

 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

There aren't really any cities in that area where the snow is likely to be the most significant.   I am guessing maybe the town of Mt. Shasta CA is one area to watch.

 

 

Thank you.  That gives me a great starting point.

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Does not look good for my area however. 

Well crap.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wind!! Have had several gusts rock the house over the last hour. 
Light drizzle and 46.

.01” so far on the day. 

Trees here beginning to do a warm up dance.

47* 

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Ended 2020 with a very mild and mostly dry 53/45 day. Started 2021 with a somewhat wet and mild 50/44 day; close to a quarter inch of rainfall.

A wet and mild 46 degrees with light rain currently.

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Nice to see a wind advisory for the valleys and a snow advisory for the Cascades tonight, at very least.

As has been said by others, the current pattern beats endless death ridging by a long shot. Although it would be great to see things turn colder and snowier at some point this month.

I will say I am a little disappointed the jet won't be as suppressed the first 7-10 days of January as previously advertised on some of last week's runs. What looked to be a 2008 type pattern has morphed into more of a 2006 type pattern.

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Another horrible GFS run. Still no sign of a pattern change. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another horrible GFS run. Still no sign of a pattern change. 

I'm sorry its been such a rough start to the year for you Andrew.

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm sorry its been such a rough start to the year for you Andrew.

Really bothers you when folks point out the obvious doesn't it? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, dolt said:

2021 has started with sweaty ball sacs.

Could not agree more!

On a weather related note, the 12z run is pretty wet!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could not agree more!

On a weather related note, the 12z run is pretty wet!

At least we have a Duck major bowl win to look forward to in a few hours. Not looking forward to a windy day though. 

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39 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

12z GFS is insanely wet. Precip totals through hour 324

12z10221qpf_acc.us_nw.thumb.png.556c2c630a70147e2bbd19fbcfa0e879.png

Pretty epic mountain snow pattern too. Especially for Washington. This is through hour 240 on the same run.

CAE08AB6-4B6F-411F-962B-CD2E4E71848E.thumb.png.e9af0f0d7883d8fa5140f686e83b854e.png
 

Would be nice to see the jet aimed just a little farther south with this same general pattern. More toward Eureka, CA than Forks, WA. Although judging by recent trends it may end up aimed farther north than currently shown.

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21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX hit 55 yesterday???

Noticed that last night. I think it was a mistake since I didn’t see anything on the five minute obs. Jokes about strongly worded letters etc...

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10 hours ago, Cloud said:

2020 ended up being quite warm. And quite wet. 

yuck 

 

Some here say 3x that much warming is a good deal because they get the toys they want and someone else will get stuck dealing with most of it, anyhow.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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46 here, .35" so far today.  Looking forward to 6 or 7" of rain in the next several days.  The good news is that with all the standing water on the property I will have a nice skating rink when the arctic air (Godot) settles in after the deluge.  

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I would have preferred more snow on the ground for walking. All the steps going up the hill are icy. lol

But good thing ice is pretty rare at my place.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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0.67” overnight.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Acer said:

46 here, .35" so far today.  Looking forward to 6 or 7" of rain in the next several days.  The good news is that with all the standing water on the property I will have a nice skating rink when the arctic air (Godot) settles in after the deluge.  

 

Most of that would have to come today then... because the 12Z ECMWF shows that from tomorrow afternoon through the work week your area only gets 1-2 inches of rain.   

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_120hr_inch-0150400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow between 10 p.m. and 4 a.m... 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_10to1-9675200.png

I just don't see how this comes to fruition. 

Surface temps are 36/37, 925s are 1/0c, and 850s are -2/-3c. Even more borderline than the solstice storm. Precip rates are pretty light by 1 or 2AM so wouldn't count on much help there.

You might get lucky and see something but fully expecting zilch down here even though that shows 2 inches.

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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The whole SSW process has trended into a more slow, prolonged displacement and shredding of the vortex vs a quick cut of the jugular. Now the major warming is just the opening act that throws the vortex off balance/tilts w/ height as it slowly bleeds out from follow up wave activity.

So perhaps the pattern response will be of the slow variety as well instead of a quick flip.

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I just don't see how this comes to fruition. 

Surface temps are 36/37, 925s are 1/0c, and 850s are -2/-3c. Even more borderline than the solstice storm. Precip rates are pretty light by 1 or 2AM so wouldn't count on much help there.

You might get lucky and see something but fully expecting zilch down here even though that shows 2 inches.

In reality... it could be a period of heavy, wet, non-sticking snow there.   Still might be fun to watch and the flakes will probably be huge.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The whole SSW process has trended into a more slow, prolonged displacement and shredding of the vortex vs a quick cut of the jugular. Now the major warming is just the opening act that throws the vortex off balance/tilts w/ height as it slowly bleeds out from follow up wave activity.

So perhaps the pattern response will be of the slow variety as well instead of a quick flip.

So I guess climate change does more than just raise Portland's low temperatures in the summer. 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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13 minutes ago, Acer said:

46 here, .35" so far today.  Looking forward to 6 or 7" of rain in the next several days.  The good news is that with all the standing water on the property I will have a nice skating rink when the arctic air (Godot) settles in after the deluge.  

I like the way you think!!!

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

The whole SSW process has trended into a more slow, prolonged displacement and shredding of the vortex vs a quick cut of the jugular. Now the major warming is just the opening act that throws the vortex off balance/tilts w/ height as it slowly bleeds out from follow up wave activity.

So perhaps the pattern response will be of the slow variety as well instead of a quick flip.

I’m sure by March things will be rolling. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Most of that would have to come today then... because the 12Z ECMWF shows that from tomorrow afternoon through the work week your area only gets 1-2 inches of rain.   

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_120hr_inch-0150400.png

Just going off the GFS map posted earlier showing copious amounts over the next two weeks.  Sometimes I exaggerate.  Thanks, I much prefer the Euro version.

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16 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

NWS Portland pulling back a little on “gusts to 50”?

 

For a minute there I thought you were actually making a non-whiny post showing enthusiasm for the current weather, then I saw the little part on the bottom. 🥰

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47 minutes ago, Acer said:

46 here, .35" so far today.  Looking forward to 6 or 7" of rain in the next several days.  The good news is that with all the standing water on the property I will have a nice skating rink when the arctic air (Godot) settles in after the deluge.  

Like December 1990! 

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