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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

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Just to shed a bit more light on the timeline of when the SSW events normally pay off for us.  The last two major SSWs happened in the winters of 2017-18 and 2018-19.  In both cases there was a huge spike followed by a huge crash.  In both cases significant cold waves happened while the crash on the other side was in progress.  In the case of 2018 the cold came about a week after the peak of the SSW and in 2019 it was about 3 weeks.  This one looks like it will peak in a week or so.  I'm still very hopeful for some good stuff later on.

I know people poo poo the EPS control model, but the last two runs have shown a favorable configuration by mid month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF actually shows generally dry weather from Friday through Sunday of next week.   That would be nice.

How are you holding up these days? This pattern must be pretty hard for u to handle.

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just to shed a bit more light on the timeline of when the SSW events normally pay off for us.  The last two major SSWs happened in the winters of 2017-18 and 2018-19.  In both cases there was a huge spike followed by a huge crash.  In both cases significant cold waves happened while the crash on the other side was in progress.  In the case of 2018 the cold came about a week after the peak of the SSW and in 2019 it was about 3 weeks.  This one looks like it will peak in a week or so.  I'm still very hopeful for some good stuff later on.

I know people poo poo the EPS control model, but the last two runs have shown a favorable configuration by mid month.

Didn't this model show a favorable pattern by Christmas, then New Year's? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Moving the sheep to their spring pasture for a few weeks. Given the grass has not gone dormant this winter, I am hoping to get some more growth on the winter pasture, move them back up there by the end of January, and save a few $$$ on supplemental feed. The silver lining of an exceptionally mild winter. 

Ours hasn’t closed up shop entirely either.  I was out yesterday taking down Xmas and Covid decorations and thought things had awakened but then realized it had never fallen asleep.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The new 12Z EPS looks just as ugly at day 15 and does not seem to be even trying to go in a better direction.    This seems like it might be similar to the Nina period from 1998-2001.

Maybe a flip in February can save it.  

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0798400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-0798400.png

Wave pool getting shaken up big time though. The warmth in west-central Canada begins to fade on most EPS members after Jan 10th.

And FWIW, that’s a decent snow pattern here even if it’s doomed to melt 5 minutes later. Blizzard of 1983 had 6”/hr rates and had an almost identical pattern.

image.png.302cbbf95782d207954d2c3b7d24e99a.png

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

How are you holding up these days? This pattern must be pretty hard for u to handle.

 

It has not been bad at all this winter.  Lots of dry breaks and some sunny days mixed in.   Wet periods are to be expected.    And it actually looks like it will get better after Monday.   Friday-Sunday might be mostly dry.    I just wish we had more cold and snow.   This is the time of year that I love that.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Didn't this model show a favorable pattern by Christmas, then New Year's? 

This was never the case considering the models showed the SSW event start at this time frame. Then 2-3 weeks to show something more favorable. My guess is 3rd week of Jan. The real obvious concern here is the further this drags on without any changes, our window closes quickly. No one wants a sloppy mess in March or April.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Wave pool getting shaken up big time though. The warmth in west-central Canada begins to fade on most EPS members after Jan 10th.

And FWIW, that’s a decent snow pattern here even if it’s doomed to melt 5 minutes later.

Blizzard of 1983 had 6”/hr rates and had an almost identical pattern.

image.png.302cbbf95782d207954d2c3b7d24e99a.png

#2warm2notsnow

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

No doubt this is releated to the recent extremely wet decade being added to the averages.

Entirely related in fact.

I think the 80's were fairly dry as well.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Monday night still looks snowy in K-FALLS. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This was never the case considering the models showed the SSW event start at this time frame. Then 2-3 weeks to show something more favorable. My guess is 3rd week of Jan. The real obvious concern here is the further this drags on without any changes, our window closes quickly. No one wants a sloppy mess in March or April.

Seems like some revisionist history going on here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Positive development in latest EPS run: anticyclone developing over the Beaufort/W-Arctic. That’s essentially the inverse of the pattern that ruined last winter.

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29 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I am baffled by how many people are cancelling winter based on the current models, when in fact there is still a SSW in progress. Its been mentioned numerous times that what we are seeing in the models is totally consistent with a Siberian SSW event, and that these events typically favour arctic air in PNW 2-3 weeks after completion of the warming.

There is simply no way to know the final outcome of the SSW this early. We need to wait for it to complete for more details.

Perhaps the lack of long range fantasy runs as of recent is getting people concerned. I'm not concerned until February 1st with nothing good showing up in the models.

I’d give the SSW about a 50/50 chance of salvaging winter.  A good event or even a good month could still be on the table, which is pretty much needed at this point to even salvage a near normal season. 

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Moving the sheep to their spring pasture for a few weeks. Given the grass has not gone dormant this winter, I am hoping to get some more growth on the winter pasture, move them back up there by the end of January, and save a few $$$ on supplemental feed. The silver lining of an exceptionally mild winter. 

Omg dude. This is worse than Tim’s tulips

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3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Omg dude. This is worse than Tim’s tulips

Andrew hasn’t been himself for almost a week now.

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If we set the expectation of getting zero snow every year, then getting snow would be a surprise!!

That’s what I do. Works wonders.

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8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d give the SSW about a 50/50 chance of salvaging winter.  A good event or even a good month could still be on the table, which is pretty much needed at this point to even salvage a near normal season. 

Looks increasingly likely that February will have to go 2019 animal style to keep this winter from going into the solidly-warm category.  Hard to see the first half of January not being prolifically warm, although I suppose some of the shortwave ridging hinted at in the long range could take some of the edge off.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It has not been bad at all this winter.  Lots of dry breaks and some sunny days mixed in.   Wet periods are to be expected.    And it actually looks like it will get better after Monday.   Friday-Sunday might be mostly dry.    I just wish we had more cold and snow.   This is the time of year that I love that.

Can I get a pic of current conditions there? 

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Did you see this? SSWE has trended stronger, and now forecast the PV to split in one or two episodes. Granted the pattern 'right now' and likely over the next 7-8 days looks crummy, wet, bit mild, but it won't near/after mid January. Some people need to calm down just a bit with the 'Winter Cancel' stuff.

No photo description available.

image.png

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Andrew hasn’t been himself for almost a week now.

I contemplated doing an early shearing this weekend, but my wife talked me out of it. She thinks February and March are going to be "brutal."

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I contemplated doing an early shearing this weekend, but my wife talked me out of it. She thinks February and March are going to be "brutal."

Sounds like a smart woman. Keep her.

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6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Did you see this? SSWE has trended stronger, and now forecast the PV to split in one or two episodes. Granted the pattern 'right now' and likely over the next 7-8 days looks crummy, wet, bit mild, but it won't near/after mid January. Some people need to calm down just a bit with the 'Winter Cancel' stuff.

No photo description available.

image.png

 

Perhaps we'll see a hybrid of Feb 18 and Feb 19 out of this. It will be interesting to see what happens for sure...

January will probably not turn out so great but hey, it's January. February is the true winter month in the PNW now.

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I contemplated doing an early shearing this weekend, but my wife talked me out of it. She thinks February and March are going to be "brutal."

 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sounds like a smart woman. Keep her.

I am really trying!!!

I would say her weather preferences lean more towards Tim's. She grew up in K-Falls, so she has had enough snow in her life. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Euro and GFS might look similar but are in fact light years away with the pattern progression after D7.

And yeah, that’s one angry Pacific. Shut that down and everything falls into place. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Euro and GFS might look similar but are in fact light years away with the pattern progression after D7.

And yeah, that’s one angry Pacific. Shut that down and everything falls into place. 

Yeah it is, and it will near mid-January.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Euro and GFS might look similar but are in fact light years away with the pattern progression after D7.

And yeah, that’s one angry Pacific. Shut that down and everything falls into place. 

Yeah, what's pissing the Pac off so much? It's crazy. 

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30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The NWS is getting so bored they seem to be skipping hourly obs lately.

Perhaps too Busy with the extrapolation easels you sent them for Christmas 

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yeah, what's pissing the Pac off so much? It's crazy. 

Urals High/+EAMT (which also reinforces Indian Ocean convection). All of that nukes the NPAC, with IO trying to build a flat +NPO.

What models aren’t seeing right now is the MJO response to SSW-induced tropical stratospheric cooling coming out of the IO. Always a problem for models at this stage of the game, but the GFS in particular is having a hard time with it (and always does). One of those fickle situations where the Euro usually steamrolls the GFS.

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26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looks increasingly likely that February will have to go 2019 animal style to keep this winter from going into the solidly-warm category.  Hard to see the first half of January not being prolifically warm, although I suppose some of the shortwave ridging hinted at in the long range could take some of the edge off.

Only +2F for December here. Not too ridiculous. 

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13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Only +2F for December here. Not too ridiculous. 

We were forecast to get around 100" of snow on the Sierra crest starting on Monday. Both models have now back tracked to almost 0. Pretty bad fail for both models. Good news is that when the storm track misses us we get brilliant blue skies, no wind, and warm temps. Here is picture from the top of Heavnely today. 

Edit. Meant to post this and not reply to the one above

20210101_090752.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The 18z doesn’t seem all that interested in throwing us a bone.😟

image.jpeg.abd43c503a5b856732cb3284464b7f3a.jpeg

Come on man. You know its not picking up the MOJO!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Oh

My 

God

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_55.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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39 minutes ago, luminen said:

 

Perhaps we'll see a hybrid of Feb 18 and Feb 19 out of this. It will be interesting to see what happens for sure...

January will probably not turn out so great but hey, it's January. February is the true winter month in the PNW now.

From what I understand, the West is most often affected first by SSW pattern shakeups.

If this one delivers, I don't think you'll have to wait until February.

 

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Low. Solar.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The 18z doesn’t seem all that interested in throwing us a bone.😟

image.jpeg.abd43c503a5b856732cb3284464b7f3a.jpeg

It actually does get some of that cold out of Eurasia and tries for a NPAC/W-Arctic anticyclone, but yeah this model is probably out of its league at the moment.

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3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Greenland is much colder around day 10, that’s new.  

Yeah, the GFS has eliminated a lot of the blood red that has had Justin all worked up the last few days. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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This run appears to have a little more rain and mountain snow for Oregon. At least the trend of warmer and drier is reversed for one run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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