1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm

[Grizzcoat]

Even the outside chance of the Golden Ruler---

[GDR]

[Grizzcoat]

Love this tune from Black Sabbath-- al lot like looking at models -

"Heaven or Hell"-- ( damned if your wrong , damned if your right) and top ten Heavy Mental riffs of all time imo--- the closer you get to the meaning - the sooner you know your dreaming"--- so true in weather forecasting and climate.

 

[snowstorm83]

Lincoln smoked by the GFS for the first run. Also upped to 8-12” from OAX. Looks like everything is falling into place, just a few more model runs to go before radar time.

[snowstorm83]

[FV-Mike]

Excited for N IL first bigger storm of the year. Neb and S IA looks golden. Interesting note from LOT on ratios in this morning afd

Forecast soundings indicate a bit better spatiotemporal overlap of
the deeper ascent within the DGZ on Monday afternoon/evening than
previous iterations. The result was a jump in Cobb ratio output
towards 13-15:1. At the same time, though, thermal profiles will
still be rather warm, with a deep saturated layer hugging -1 to -8
C which tends to support a larger degree of riming which would cut
down on ratios. Did nudge our ratios up a smidge for Monday
afternoon/evening closer to 11-12:1

[BMT]

Would be nice to score some nice ratios. 

[Grizzcoat]

06z euro back N. 

[snowstorm83]

LNK bullseyed...oof. Kuchera pushing 2 feet of course but here's 10:1

[bud2380]

Wow DVNs AFD was pathetic. You would barely know there is a major winter storm coming through. 

[dubuque473]

[centralweather44]

19 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

LNK bullseyed...oof. Kuchera pushing 2 feet of course but here's 10:1

What time do most models have the snow starting around Lincoln. Channel 8 last night showed it starting around 1am, while 10/11 showed it starting at 7am. Quite a wide range. 

[bud2380]

12z HRRR really cut down on totals in eastern Iowa. 

[snowstorm83]

3 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

What time do most models have the snow starting around Lincoln. Channel 8 last night showed it starting around 1am, while 10/11 showed it starting at 7am. Quite a wide range. 

Models have maybe light snow or freezing drizzle after midnight but no accumulating snow until around 6/7 am. 

[jcwxguy]

12z nam is south initially

[St Paul Storm]

Finished wave 1 with 5” of fresh powder. Not bad at all. 
 

Good luck to all in play with wave 2! 

[Sciascia]

While we wait on the NAM, here’s 2 gif maps from the 12z HRRR:

[snowstorm83]

7 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

12z nam is south

Yeah if that verfied much of that warning in the central Nebraska region would be a huge bust. Omaha/Lincoln still get 10-11". I guess a good way to tell we're golden is even big cutbacks like that still bury us lol. 

[jcwxguy]

[Stormy]

1.9” of snow here overnight. 
 

7” - 15” in my NWS point forecast from the Monday system.

[jcwxguy]

[snowstorm83]

Geez that's a solid 2 rows of counties south on the 3k compared to 6z....

[snowstorm83]

LNK 9z SREF mean 11.1" through 6 am Tuesday. 13.4" by Wednesday. For Monday it's mostly clusted in the 8-13" range. 3 outliers each less than 5" and greater than 15". OMA mean is 10.2". I wouldn't sweat the NAM too much. 

Holdrege: 7" 

DSM: 10.5"

CID: 7.6"

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

LNK 9z SREF mean 11.1" through 6 am Tuesday. 13.4" by Wednesday. For Monday it's mostly clusted in the 8-13" range. 3 outliers each less than 5" and greater than 15". OMA mean is 10.2". I wouldn't sweat the NAM too much. 

Holdrege: 7" 

DSM: 10.5"

CID: 7.6"

NAM seems off. Throws snow way out to the panhandle. I’ll look for trends later this morning 

[gabel23]

Ouch I hope the nam is smoking something.... that would hurt my area. 

[Tom]

26 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

While we wait on the NAM, here’s 2 gif maps from the 12z HRRR:

The lake may be our friend...finally...been waiting a longgg time for this!

[bud2380]

NAM really dries up in eastern Iowa. Still a solid 8” but totals still dropped significantly 

[GDR]

Nam starts sucking amounts down in eastern Iowa 

[jcwxguy]

Rgem coming in hot

[Stormhunter87]

Jim flowers has been detailing this storm like crazy and the model shift play into what he was been discussing. Going to be a fun one to watch and experience.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[dubuque473]

Maybe 2” overnight...

[dubuque473]

19 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Don't mean to hijack the thread, but Airens are very good. More solid frame in 2 stage. Stay away from tank tracks.

Airens is good stuff. I have a Toro, 10 years old and counting!

[CentralNebWeather]

RGEM still awesome for my area. Full run. 

[bud2380]

RDPS continues the drying trend in eastern Iowa.  Significantly lower totals than 6z and 00z runs. 

[indianajohn]

50 minutes ago, Tom said:

The lake may be our friend...finally...been waiting a longgg time for this!

@Tom Finally is right!! Last few years everything has been either north or south of me. What are the chances this overproduces? 

[jcwxguy]

Gfs looking good

[snowstorm83]

OMA/LNK 14-15" bullseye, and that's on 10:1. Not sure how I feel about having the GFS on my side lmao

[jcwxguy]

Gfs