Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, Tom said: Can you post the 06z Euro mean? I flipped through all the ensemble members and they took a step towards the GEFS. Indeed it did but a little later than the GFS. EC at hr144 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Clinton said: Indeed it did but a little later than the GFS. EC at hr144 Baby steps! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, Tom said: Baby steps! A bit of a jump in the Mean as well. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 The models continue to throw us a few teaser runs, but then quickly go back to suppressed. The 06z GFS would be awesome for many, but I don't buy it with other models going the other way. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 40 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The models continue to throw us a few teaser runs, but then quickly go back to suppressed. The 06z GFS would be awesome for many, but I don't buy it with other models going the other way. 12Z even more suppressed. It's basically just going to be cold, with a few fluffy light snow events. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Stacsh said: 12Z even more suppressed. It's basically just going to be cold, with a few fluffy light snow events. Still has the weekend system but not as strong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z GFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Tony said: Still has the weekend system but not as strong Looks like it transfers to a coastal low which on prior runs did not have Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tony said: Still has the weekend system but not as strong More realistic imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 More suppressed again, saw that coming. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: More realistic imo. It's not a big dog but still warning type snows 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Tony said: It's not a big dog but still warning type snows No doubt and I should have been more specific. I think it's a reasonable run for my area given how cold and limited QPF will be. I would think the further NE the better chances of higher amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 It's so hard to put any stock in any run of any model at this point. The run to run variability has been off the charts. Today's 12z NAM and RDPS both are showing a robust system now on Friday (NAM pictured below). But the GFS is weak on Friday and the Euro has almost nothing. We've seen both the GFS and Euro flip flop from historic snow amounts to significantly less from run to run. With the incredibly cold air in place even the smallest amounts of qpf are shooting snow totals through the roof, so even small changes on a run are causing snow totals to change several inches in many spots. I really don't think you can put much stock in anything more than 48 hours out at this point. Look at yesterday here in Eastern Iowa and into N. Illinois. No model was showing up to 5" of snow falling, but that is what ended up happening. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Not bad w last nites snowfall....managed to receive 3" in mby. 5 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: No doubt and I should have been more specific. I think it's a reasonable run for my area given how cold and limited QPF will be. I would think the further NE the better chances of higher amounts. Hope the south trend stops on future runs or its over this far north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z GFS stays active into next week. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 GDPS also has a nice system on Friday. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Friday seems to be shaping up to be a nice event so at least it staying active and cold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Another 4-5 where are we going to put the snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Canadian similar to GFS for late weekend/early next week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I will start to get more interested when the 0z model runs come in tonight and the 12z models tomorrow. NWS Hastings says they might start getting some snowfall potential maps out tomorrow afternoon. Some models that were huge yesterday are much lower today. Lets see if that's a trend or if it reverts back. With these bitterly cold temps, any wave could look weak but drop more snow due to high ratios. We'll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 UK for Friday into Saturday AM. Safe to say you can double these amounts since this is just 10:1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 I started a new thread for the weekend system as it does have support now for a decent system. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Attm, temp is at 18F under mostly sunny skies, along w a very nice snowcover around. Snow after snow has really been piling up here. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Some fun 2021 odds and ends. So far in 2021 the warmest it has gotten is 41. And the warmest so far this month is just 37. For January that high of 41 is well below the 100-year average highest for January of 48. And the highest for February so far of 37 is also well below the average highest in February of 50. The coldest it has been this winter season so far here at Grand Rapids is +2 the last time it has gotten below zero here at Grand Rapids is February 1st, 2019. The last time Grand Rapids had gone 2 years without getting below zero was in the 1930’s. With the recent snow fall Grand Rapids is now at 16.1” for February so February will end up above average but the seasonal total of 31.3” is still almost two feet below were we should be by this date and Grand Rapids still needs 10 more inches to not have a top 10 winter season lowest seasonal snow fall. At this time the official snow depth at Grand Rapids is 10" here at my house I have a average of 13" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro coming in stronger on Friday now, especially Friday evening/night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Before Friday's system and after are posted below, so you can subtract off the amounts in your area. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 hours ago, GDR said: Another 4-5 where are we going to put the snow? Plenty of room around here. We've had many snowier stretches since I moved here in August 2008. Allowing for this is still a work in progress. And nth I'm curious if this can have legs to join the more elite winter months of lore, or if it will just be Chicago and west with us on the sidelines Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Anybody guess where we went to see the fluffy flakes last night? IMG_3518.MP4 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, Jaycee said: Anybody guess where we went to see the fluffy flakes last night? IMG_3518.MP4 8.25 MB · 0 downloads Home alone movie 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, Jaycee said: Anybody guess where we went to see the fluffy flakes last night? IMG_3518.MP4 8.25 MB · 0 downloads #1 Thing Scientists Still Can't Explain: What career did peter have to afford that house and support 8 kids and a wife and go on fancy family vacations every year 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 22 hours ago, bud2380 said: Incredible. I'll have to measure when I get home. I've never attempted to melt it down, frankly I'm not sure the proper way to do so, but I'd be interested to know. I usually don’t take core samples if there are small amounts of snow like yesterday, especially if the gauge catch seems accurate from not having much wind. And I just set the gauges in a bucket of nearly hot water and melt it that way, though it takes longer to melt. I don’t really like the idea of melting snow in a kettle on a stove as some could evaporate if not careful enough. Here’s a picture slideshow from the CoCoRaHS website showing an example of how to take and measure the liquid content of snow with the type of 4” diameter gauge Hawkeye and I use. I don’t use a fly swatter or spatula as they show, though that works. I like to use thin cardboard to slide underneath like Hawkeye mentioned. https://media.cocorahs.org/docs/MeasuringSnow2.1.pdf Or you can watch one of their videos if you have time. On this website https://www.cocorahs.org/ just click the link to YouTube videos where there are several videos showing you how to take snow core samples, etc. You probably knew about this site, but I thought maybe someone else would be interested too. And if you’re interested in purchasing such a gauge, here’s a link of one that’s supposedly on sale.https://weatheryourway.com/collections/cocorahs-gauge-parts. Amazon might have them as well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 hours ago, Niko said: Not bad w last nites snowfall....managed to receive 3" in mby. Looks like the fluffy snow we had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 18z GFS thru hr 114. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Sparky said: Looks like the fluffy snow we had. Yes...so fluffy that you did not need a shovel for this snow. A broom was all ya needed. It was a nice mini - snowevent. At times it came down moderate. Too bad it was a quick mover. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS showing no let up for the southern and eastern members over the next 10 days. 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Clinton said: GFS showing no let up for the southern and eastern members over the next 10 days. Looks like our friend OKwx scores nicely down the road. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, Niko said: Looks like our friend OKwx scores nicely down the road. @OKwx2k4you know he's watching! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 18Z CMC- out 84 hours- 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 9, 2021 Report Share Posted February 9, 2021 Waterloo had -21 this morning. Wow 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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