December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

I have no idea why I'm sharing this, but I finally broke down and got some meds to help with my mania, depression, and anger issues over the weather. It will be interesting to see how it effects my posts. It literally got to the point where I couldn't enjoy anything because I was either so wired or so depressed I rarely saw things as they truly are.

 

My recommendation for all of you is don't let yourself get to where I was.

[Bryant]

I have no idea why I'm sharing this, but I finally broke down and got some meds to help with my mania, depression, and anger issues over the weather. It will be interesting to see how it effects my posts. It literally got to the point where I couldn't enjoy anything because I was either so wired or so depressed I rarely saw things as they truly are.

 

My recommendation for all of you is don't let yourself get to where I was.

Bold of you to come out and say that. You did what you felt you needed to do though, and that's what matters. Good for you

[snow_wizard]

Bold of you to come out and say that. You did what you felt you needed to do though, and that's what matters. Good for you

I've always believed in being forthcoming on here.

[FroYoBro]

I have no idea why I'm sharing this, but I finally broke down and got some meds to help with my mania, depression, and anger issues over the weather. It will be interesting to see how it effects my posts. It literally got to the point where I couldn't enjoy anything because I was either so wired or so depressed I rarely saw things as they truly are.

 

My recommendation for all of you is don't let yourself get to where I was.

Good for you. You shouldn't let the weather control your life in such a severe way. 

[snow_wizard]

Good for you. You shouldn't let the weather control your life in such a severe way.

I'm going to try to find the middle ground here. I wouldn't be me without the occasional over the top outburst when an Arctic air mass slides east of the Rockies.

[TT-SEA]

I have no idea why I'm sharing this, but I finally broke down and got some meds to help with my mania, depression, and anger issues over the weather. It will be interesting to see how it effects my posts. It literally got to the point where I couldn't enjoy anything because I was either so wired or so depressed I rarely saw things as they truly are.

 

My recommendation for all of you is don't let yourself get to where I was.

 

 

Thank God for modern medicine!

 

And you will probably become the best forecaster on here now if you can divorce emotion from the science.

 

For me... just getting older has made it all seem less important.    I am trying to just take it as it comes and be realistic about where we live.

[Snow]

[Gradient Keeper]

I have no idea why I'm sharing this, but I finally broke down and got some meds to help with my mania, depression, and anger issues over the weather. It will be interesting to see how it effects my posts. It literally got to the point where I couldn't enjoy anything because I was either so wired or so depressed I rarely saw things as they truly are.

 

My recommendation for all of you is don't let yourself get to where I was.

I remember many years ago being so disappointed when a Snow event busted.. It really bothered me for the entire night. This was before the Internet I believe. I just want to say to you that I hope you can get to a point one day soon to where you won't have these issues any longer, nor on any level be dependant on meds to do so. I wish you nothing but the best of luck with this my friend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thank God for modern medicine!

 

And you will probably become the best forecaster on here now if you can divorce emotion from the science.

 

For me... just getting older has made it all seem less important.    I am trying to just take it as it comes and be realistic about where we live.

 

I hear you with the getting older part. Believe it or not I've mellowed out tremendously. I think having kids helped too. 

 

For me it was baseball growing up that I was way over passionate about. I remember it peaked (or bottomed) my sophomore year in high school when I got ejected from two games, one for arguing balls and strikes (I was pitching, bad idea.), and then for disputing a play at first base in another game. Honestly I had to get to the point where I realized I was embarrassing myself, my family, and my teammates. Just like I would never reach my potential as a player when I had such a warped perspective, the same goes for forecasting or any other walk of life. After high school I took a little time off and when I went back to college in Oklahoma when I was 22 I was such a better player than before because I had seen a little bit of life by then and realized that it was just a game. As this is just weather. 

 

PS...I hope it snows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember many years ago being so disappointed when a Snow event busted.. It really bothered me for the entire night. This was before the Internet I believe. I just want to say to you that I hope you can get to a point one day soon to where you won't have these issues any longer, nor on any level be dependant on meds to do so. I wish you nothing but the best of luck with this my friend.

 

You got really upset when Seattle got slammed in November 2010.

 

I think my worst recent freak out was when my precip turned to rain a full 24 hours before the Willamette Valley in February 2014.

 

That one still hurts a little.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I remember many years ago being so disappointed when a Snow event busted.. It really bothered me for the entire night. This was before the Internet I believe. I just want to say to you that I hope you can get to a point one day soon to where you won't have these issues any longer, nor on any level be dependant on meds to do so. I wish you nothing but the best of luck with this my friend.

I used to get so mad I would call any local news weather person and call them names because they were wrong.

[Snow]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a gut feeling we are going to get lucky and get great 00z runs from the GFS/GEM/EURO.

 

I hope we get lucky and they actually verify!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z runs are starting. You can cut the suspense with a knife.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 00z runs are starting. You can cut the suspense with a knife.

Butter, Steak, or those fancy plastic knives?

 

Yep... Good run? Excellent run? or just decent? It all depends on how strong/weak the Kona low is, Kamchatka low is, how far east the energy from the large trough associated with it extends beyond the Aleutians, and southeast ridging. The fact that CMC(GEM) Ensembles greatly improved and 18z also shows good improvement is encouraging. It's still too early to know if we're now seeing a new, positive trend emerging and even if 00z models tonight are great, we want to see solid agreement/continuity and run-to-run consistency for the next few days. Tonight could be the start of that. We'll see....

[snow_wizard]

I remember many years ago being so disappointed when a Snow event busted.. It really bothered me for the entire night. This was before the Internet I believe. I just want to say to you that I hope you can get to a point one day soon to where you won't have these issues any longer, nor on any level be dependant on meds to do so. I wish you nothing but the best of luck with this my friend.

It's all a balancing act. There is no doubt I was doing more harm to myself by not taking any meds, than I will taking them responsibly. It got nightmarish at times. My imagine would run so wild I would have visions of trees falling through our house like in the mid November event this year. Even with the snow events I get so high strung it almost became a type of torture. Then with the missed events...let's say Hitler in that video on this very forum had nothing on me.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 48 Op

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122300/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[snow_wizard]

I used to get so mad I would call any local news weather person and call them names because they were wrong.

I called Jeff Renner once during that piece of turd winter known as 1999-2000 and went ballistic. To get so screwed with such a strong Nina was just more than I could take. He was pretty much speechless by the end.

[snow_wizard]

HR 48 Op

Kona low smack on Hawaii.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 48 Op 850mb - Is it just me, or is BC/AB/NWT much colder already than previous runs?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122300/gfs_T850_namer_9.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I called Jeff Renner once during that piece of turd winter known as 1999-2000 and went ballistic. To get so screwed with such a strong Nina was just more than I could take. He was pretty much speechless by the end.

 

I remember some wet non-sticking snow falling in January 2000.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's all a balancing act. There is no doubt I was doing more harm to myself by not taking any meds, than I will taking them responsibly. It got nightmarish at times. My imagine would run so wild I would have visions of trees falling through our house like in the mid November event this year. Even with the snow events I get so high strung it almost became a type of torture. Then with the missed events...let's say Hitler in that video on this very forum had nothing on me.

just dont forget to take them jim. I had to get on some meds to deal with my wife's illness and I forgot to take my meds for a few days. Not fun let me tell ya.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I called Jeff Renner once during that piece of turd winter known as 1999-2000 and went ballistic. To get so screwed with such a strong Nina was just more than I could take. He was pretty much speechless by the end.

D**n it jim!! Lol.

[Snow]

I hope we get lucky and they actually verify!

Yeah we're going to hit the jackpot tonight!

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 72 Op. Parallel is running slow, but I will post images from it too

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122300/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_13.png

[MikeInEverett]

I love when I tell people it's gonna get cold in a week" and then the next day they say "I watched the weather on the news last night and all they said was 45 and rain" Ugh the way the forecasters are so conservative on the news just really bothers me sometimes.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 48 Parallel

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[GHweatherChris]

Not a fan of where the 00z is headed so far, Kona low stronger and further east, everything is further east it appears.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 72 Parallel

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_13.png

[Front Ranger]

Weekend shortwave is WAY further north/slower on this run.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 96 Op .. Kona low MUCH stronger on this run

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122300/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_17.png

[GHweatherChris]

No Bueno!!

[Front Ranger]

At hour 129, things aren't looking too bad. Big difference with that much stronger low north of HI, as DJ pointed out. Ridge is also stronger, a little more forcing coming down it appears.

 

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

At hour 129, things aren't looking too bad. Big difference with that much stronger low north of HI, as DJ pointed out. Ridge is also stronger, a little more forcing coming down it appears.

 

 

 

0zGFS.png

Good analysis. Stronger low, pumping up ridge even better, amplifying it...

[The Swamp]

tonights model run looks real real bad.

 

i'm not going to get down though.  tomorrow they'll be back to something close to good.

 

just have to be patient.

 

in phil i trust.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 96 Parallel

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_17.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 Op

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122300/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

HR 96 Parallel

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_17.png

Gross

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 132 Op - 500mb..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122300/gfs_z500_vort_namer_23.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 Parallel . There we go

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122300/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_21.png