February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mark seemed to think the 12z EURO seemed pretty reasonable, but said it was just one run, and we shouldn't read to much into it. 

JAYA was saying the same...too early to freak out about anything.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

JAYA was saying the same...too early to freak out about anything.

It’s never too early to freak out!!! Especially on this forum!!!!!!!!

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now, MossMan said:

It’s never too early to freak out!!! Especially on this forum!!!!!!!!

We all know uncle will want to look for a few beers before this unfolds. One or two runs will be bumpy.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wouldn't be surprised to see some overperformance tonight. MBG

[bainbridgekid]

Down to 40 at KPAE.

Looks like convergence is setting up between Seattle and Everett so far.

[wxmet]

[wxmet]

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF overnight tonight...

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Can you post KPLU pls?

[kokaneekidz]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF overnight tonight...

Why does it fail to see the CZ which is already apparent on radar and sat imagery ?

[Christensen87]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF overnight tonight...

Not really WWA levels...

[Kolk1604]

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, wxmet said:

What are 10 and 11 smoking? 

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, wxmet said:

12/31 show at least 15". . .

7/31 show 2" or less.

Really goes to show the insane uncertainty and potential.

[Christensen87]

I’d say if tonight’s models are still showing high snow totals, it’s time to start preparing. 

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Can you post KPLU pls?

 

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

I’d say if tonight’s models are still showing high snow totals, it’s time to start preparing. 

I think they will. I think the question is will this weekend be warm or stay cold?

[Jesse]

Always bittersweet to look at a phonecast like this knowing that it will in all likelihood be warming up dramatically in the next 12-24 hours. I kept it for posterity.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

PSCZ looks good right now, but not any low level support for it probably after 10 PM or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jesse is not on board

[paulb/eugene]

I’m out to 75h on the Euro 18z.  Just maybe there is already a sign that America will defeat Europe and that The 2021 Oregon Winterfest will be saved

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

Why does it fail to see the CZ which is already apparent on radar and sat imagery ?

Thinks it'll be too warm maybe? 

[wxmet]

ECMWF 18z not even running on weathermodels. Such a slow site.

[umadbro]

18z euro looks similar to it's 12z

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF is actually way different at the 500mb level on Thursday morning.   Look at the offshore low.  

18Z on top and 12Z on the bottom.

 

[wxmet]

Glad my subscription is coming to an end. Maue will not see another dollar from me.

[paulb/eugene]

1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

I’m out to 75h on the Euro 18z.  Just maybe there is already a sign that America will defeat Europe and that The 2021 Oregon Winterfest will be saved

The upper low that previously phased in with the trough extending west from BC is shown to head N and dissipate while a second low is much farther S

[Gradient Keeper]

2/7/21 4:19 PM [Model Countdown]

HUGE and I cannot understate exactly how HUGE tonight's runs are as well as 12z, 00z Monday. Immensely HUGE!

 

Next up....

00z GFS in 3 hours 11 minutes

A bit later....

00z GEM in 3 hours 41 minutes

Later this evening....

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 26 minutes

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

️🌬️🌬

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF loop...

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Thinks it'll be too warm maybe? 

Temperature has nothing to do with modeled radar.

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jesse is not on board

SEen this movie to many times

andeew

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF is actually way different at the 500mb level on Thursday morning.

18Z on top and 12Z on the bottom.

 

More room for a system to come north with a weaker western extent of the TPV.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF is actually way different at the 500mb level on Thursday morning.   Look at the offshore low.  

18Z on top and 12Z on the bottom.

 

Unfortunately that looks real bad especially for Oregon.

[TT-SEA]

18Z temps at 4 a.m. on Thursday... quite a bit warmer than the 12Z run.

[Cloud]

Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Temperature has nothing to do with modeled radar.

You mean to tell me what the 18z ECMWF for snow ratio tonight for the PSCZ is not temperature dependent? 

[TT-SEA]

This appears to be mostly rain on Thursday morning...

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

42 minutes ago, ..... said:

while that might be good for your backyard it would be bad for the region

they tend to either cause cold air to be delayed or shunt the cold air to the east

Old, old story, and it’s the case for pretty much everybody’s backyard. It’s hard to get a truly regionwide snow event.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z temps at 4 a.m. on Thursday... quite a bit warmer than the 12Z run.

Not good.

[wxmet]

Just now, MossMan said:

Not good.

Lol. Your location would probably be fine.

[TT-SEA]

850mb temps on Thursday morning... 18Z on top and 12Z on the bottom.