February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion

[Chewbacca Defense]

now its coming down at a pretty good clip, but the sun is also shining....in the south when it was sunny and raining the old saying was that the devil was beating his wife....I wonder what the saying is for snowing and sunny at the same time....

[Jesse]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s rather deceptive. It’s the old Highway 99, and when it was built it was a rural area, so it was designed for speed, with gradual curves and good sightlines, all of which of course encourages speed. I’ve caught myself driving way over 35 mph on that stretch myself.

Hopefully if you told the cop you were on team 50 degree rain he would let you off with a warning.

[Slushy Inch]

ICON still good for western Washington!

[Gradient Keeper]

It looks like if we were to extrapolate the 500mb pattern where the NAM ends at Day 3.5 the arctic trough Day 4-5 would drop south over us turning colder with moisture pulling in off the Pacific for a regional snow storm. Looks amazing.

[jakerepp]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

ICON still good for western Washington!

Oh yes. I like that. 

[snow_wizard]

Hmmmm.  Looks like the ICON pulled a Euro on us.  Three days out and models are still all over the place.

[Kolk1604]

So 12z CFS. I believe that's single digits on Saturday 

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

So 12z CFS. I believe that's single digits on Saturday 

The CFS doesn’t seem to recognize that the Cascades exist

[Slushy Inch]

So now its GEM, ICON and EURO for Seattle snowstorm, and NAM AND gfs for Portland snowstorm. I like the odds for Seattle, maybe 18z gfs will fold. GEM gives it to both cities, which would be ideal.

[Andrew M]

Regardless of where the low placements ultimately ends up i think its important to remember that in these setups the northern edge of the precip shield can often extend much further north than modeled too.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

The CFS doesn’t seem to recognize that the Cascades exist

Or it's backwards and thinks cold air rises lol. Imagine how different our climate would be if the mountains weren't there. 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

So 12z CFS. I believe that's single digits on Saturday 

[Jesse]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

So now its GEM, ICON and EURO for Seattle snowstorm, and NAM AND gfs for Portland snowstorm. I like the odds for Seattle, maybe 18z gfs will fold. GEM gives it to both cities, which would be ideal.

The Euro and Icon give the Portland area snow too.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Andrew M said:

Regardless of where the low placements ultimately ends up i think its important to remember that in these setups the northern edge of the precip shield can often extend much further north than modeled too.

That's true, it often happens that way.

[mtep]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s rather deceptive. It’s the old Highway 99, and when it was built it was a rural area, so it was designed for speed, with gradual curves and good sightlines, all of which of course encourages speed. I’ve caught myself driving way over 35 mph on that stretch myself.

For sure. The drivers at the shop I deliver pizza for treat it as a 50mph all the way to the light at Lincoln. I tend to take it easy, especially around Galbraith Ln, but my shitt attention span got the best of me this morning. 

[Esquimalt]

Icon goes really weird later in the run

[snow_wizard]

The big question is how that PV lobe plays out.  The ICON shows it getting hung up and the NAM shows it rotating down.  Right now something like the Euro seems like a middle ground.

[mtep]

These unexpected flakes have me very excited for the week ahead. February has been good to us. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

17 minutes ago, mtep said:

Yep! That's exactly where he got me. I was zoned out looking at the pretty flakes and didn't realize I was in the 35 until I saw him waiting. Oopsie. Should've stayed home we got a quick shower of small flakes right after I got back Luckily he wrote down 50 instead of the 54 he caught me doing. 

DOH!  Was it a motor cop?  Got a ticket from them several years ago and was impressed with the ruthless efficiency with which he gave me my ticket.  I'll bet the stop didn't last more than 3-4 minutes.  Its a lot quicker now with the bar codes on your license and the little handheld printers they have...

[jakerepp]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Doesn’t time move backwards wherever it hits -0 degrees? Or do the floors and ceilings invert? I always forget which. 

[Requiem]

I’m not incredibly concerned about the notoriously crappy ICON’s actual details beyond this first storm— but it seems to have shifted south albeit with less precipitation.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Andrew M said:

Regardless of where the low placements ultimately ends up i think its important to remember that in these setups the northern edge of the precip shield can often extend much further north than modeled too.

Yes, I remember that happening in 2017 I believe. Seattle was forecast to get maybe a few flurries at best and ended up scoring a widespread 2–3". In fact, I believe today is the anniversary of that event.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The big question is how that PV lobe plays out.  The ICON shows it getting hung up and the NAM shows it rotating down.  Right now something like the Euro seems like a middle ground.

12z GFS, EURO, GEM all slide the pv lobe/arctic trough south over us.

[Fircrest]

36 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Don't like the  NAM? Wait until the JMA, ICON, EURO, GFS, Korean model or any other model and it will change.

Does the CCP have a weather model? I never hear about the Chinese one for some reason, haha.

[Gradient Keeper]

Time for the inebriated in-law!

[Omegaraptor]

18z GFS!!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Does the CCP have a weather model? I never hear about the Chinese one for some reason, haha.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did but I couldn't find it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Meteorological_Administration

[awright-31]

And here we go.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS initialization (10 AM Monday) Past 12 runs

[RentonHill]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Time for the inebriated in-law!

[mtep]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

DOH!  Was it a motor cop?  Got a ticket from them several years ago and was impressed with the ruthless efficiency with which he gave me my ticket.  I'll bet the stop didn't last more than 3-4 minutes.  Its a lot quicker now with the bar codes on your license and the little handheld printers they have...

It was an unmarked car But he was definitely VERY quick with it. Didn't even have time to get mad at myself!

[mtep]

eighteenzee time lets gooooo

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GFS initialization (10 AM Monday) Past 12 runs

Alaskan ridge merger trended stronger.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Randy already starting off strong

[MWG]

39 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Posting this for my bud @MWGAll hope is not lost 

Wooo Late February  Here hoping! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[snow_wizard]

Lynden is at 33 currently.  Pretty legit cold for this time of day.

[BLI snowman]

Finally caught up on the last 13 pages, just in time for the most accurate GFS run of the day!

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

Deeper through over Hawaii.  Might be good.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)