Snowdrift 413 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Jacque better spit out a cold run. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 HR 78 arctic air moving into North central, northeast Washington and the upper Columbia Basin 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Acer 994 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 That D**n cutoff in the middle of the ridge isnt good 1 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12208 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 This is certainly looking better. No question. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 52 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 12074 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I was just thinking that the 12Z ECMWF might be colder based on what I am seeing up around Alaska at day 3. I think I finally understand why these model gyrations are happening at such a close range. All comes down to how effectively the TPV over Yukon evacuates southward during the first 36-48hrs, as the NAO/Pacific blocks put it under pressure. And that’s an extremely fragile situation..if one of the two blocks is a tad bit weaker, it leaves a little extra TPV energy up in the arctic and it gets trapped in the middle of the retrograde leading to a warmer solution. Or vice versa. In this case the Pacific block is weaker/more fickle, so its the one more correlated to the instabilities. 6 Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1087 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Acer said: That D**n cutoff in the middle of the ridge isnt good Just now, snow_wizard said: This is certainly looking better. No question. Conflicting reports! 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2015 Posted February 5 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, Phil said: This run should be colder than 00z. More of the TPV gets squeezed out of AK/Yukon early on by -NAO. This. Definitely negative NAO driven. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 4 ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4199 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Total snowfall through Monday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
RentonHillTC 582 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 12074 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Much better looking than 00z by Tuesday. 4 Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
RentonHillTC 582 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Yes much better 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 12074 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 It’s the epitome of chaos..squeezing a fluid eddy between two rough, malformed plates and predicting how said eddy will evolve. Will probably be years before we see a similarly fickle, volatile setup. 1 Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
seattleweatherguy 483 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Total snowfall through Monday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF. Not much for me, but its a good progress 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 413 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 It looks colder 1 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4199 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 The ULL split is much more heavily favored with the main trough and less in Alaska on the 12Z ECMWF... this is going to be a cold run. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
RentonHillTC 582 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 The much colder air over the water....will that help with precip chances at all? 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 5 ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 EURO moving towards the colder GFS? GFS/GEM blend? 4 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12208 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 The run to run change on this ECMWF run is pretty striking. We're going the right way in the home stretch! 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 52 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2015 Posted February 5 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 5 Things improving as we get closer is a nice change from what we’re use to this winter. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12208 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 5 ECMWF, GEM, GFS Yes!! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 52 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
Phil 12074 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Arctic air incoming D6. 1 Personal Weather Station: NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F3819&num=168&banner=NONE Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62/graph/2019-08-23/2019-08-23/daily Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4199 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Hints of an arctic front on Wednesday morning... 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
12345WeatherNerd 229 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, snow_wizard said: Yes!! Holding my breath for the next day! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12208 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, wxmet said: Things improving as we get closer is a nice change from what we’re use to this winter. With such intense cold air in play this has serious potential. Amazingly it looks like the GFS owned the ECMWF again. 7 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 52 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
12345WeatherNerd 229 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, TT-SEA said: Hints of an arctic front on Wednesday morning... Gfs also has snow showers around Wednesday, big model changes are happening. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2015 Posted February 5 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 5 Now we just gotta wait for some shortwave within the TPV lobe to drop down for some easy snow. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
JBolin 1110 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Things improving as we get closer is a nice change from what we’re use to this winter. Rug pull-back? I'm wondering if that mega ridge west of Greenland is putting extra "pressure" on the PV lobe to the S/SW? I've noticed the notch/es continue to eek SW'ward over the last 48 hours 4 Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4618 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: With such intense cold air in play this has serious potential. Amazingly it looks like the GFS owned the ECMWF again. Just remember this hasn’t happened just yet. Encouraging signs but it could change by the next run or two. 4 1 Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-63 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4199 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Pretty sure that little ULL offshore is about to merge with the main trough on this run... 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12208 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 This run looks like potential holy sheit cold. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 52 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 6 Brrrr! ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Day 6 850s big blast 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Meteorologist wxmet 2015 Posted February 5 Meteorologist Report Share Posted February 5 Jeez this Euro run keeps getting better and better Arctic by 144hr. 4 1 Link to post Share on other sites
12345WeatherNerd 229 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 Brrrr! ECMWF, GEM, GFS Primo artic air in this run. 3 1 Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4199 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Arctic front snow through Thursday morning... 7 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4618 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, TT-SEA said: Arctic front snow through Thursday morning... That’d be real nice. 2 Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-63 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12208 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Wow! This is COLD. 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 52 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
12345WeatherNerd 229 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1051mb high pressure over BC, wow. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 WOW. The cold air advection is very strong reminiscent of the real deal big blasts of the past. 7 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Christensen87 294 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 2 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Snowdrift 413 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: 1051mb high pressure over BC, wow. Yikes, you don't see that every day. 3 Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1087 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 What in the world is going on? At this rate, we're going to get the rug pulled out and put back under us 4 more times before Monday even gets here. 4 1 Link to post Share on other sites
JBolin 1110 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, JBolin said: Rug pull-back? I'm wondering if that mega ridge west of Greenland is putting extra "pressure" on the PV lobe to the S/SW? I've noticed the notch/es continue to eek SW'ward over the last 48 hours Rob, do you concur or am I seeing s***? 1 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Just now, JBolin said: Rob, do you concur or am I seeing s***? Agreed. It is forcing the PV lobe indeed. 5 Link to post Share on other sites
Requiem 2649 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Wow, ya'll get your cold, I get my strong easterlies, all is right with this run 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5752 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Chilly in northern parts of the region. 2 Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4618 Posted February 5 Report Share Posted February 5 Looks like the euro spits out a sub 30 high temp here Friday next week. Would be our first in 7 years. 2 1 Warm Season Stats +80s-0 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.39” Warm Season Rainfall-0.39” Warmest high temp-63 Link to post Share on other sites
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