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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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This is certainly looking better.  No question.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was just thinking that the 12Z ECMWF might be colder based on what I am seeing up around Alaska at day 3.

I think I finally understand why these model gyrations are happening at such a close range. All comes down to how effectively the TPV over Yukon evacuates southward during the first 36-48hrs, as the NAO/Pacific blocks put it under pressure.

And that’s an extremely fragile situation..if one of the two blocks is a tad bit weaker, it leaves a little extra TPV energy up in the arctic and it gets trapped in the middle of the retrograde leading to a warmer solution. Or vice versa. In this case the Pacific block is weaker/more fickle, so its the one more correlated to the instabilities.

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1 minute ago, Acer said:

That D**n cutoff in the middle of the ridge isnt good

 

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This is certainly looking better.  No question.

Conflicting reports!

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

This run should be colder than 00z. More of the TPV gets squeezed out of AK/Yukon early on by -NAO.

This. Definitely negative NAO driven.

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Total snowfall through Monday afternoon per 12Z ECMWF.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_10to1-2828800 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It’s the epitome of chaos..squeezing a fluid eddy between two rough, malformed plates and predicting how said eddy will evolve.

Will probably be years before we see a similarly fickle, volatile setup.

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The ULL split is much more heavily favored with the main trough and less in Alaska on the 12Z ECMWF... this is going to be a cold run.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2915200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The run to run change on this ECMWF run is pretty striking.  We're going the right way in the home stretch!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 5

500h_anom.na.png

ECMWF, GEM, GFS

models-2021020512-f120.500h_anom.na.gif

Yes!!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Hints of an arctic front on Wednesday morning...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-2980000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, wxmet said:

Things improving as we get closer is a nice change from what we’re use to this winter.

With such intense cold air in play this has serious potential.  Amazingly it looks like the GFS owned the ECMWF again.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

Things improving as we get closer is a nice change from what we’re use to this winter.

Rug pull-back?

I'm wondering if that mega ridge west of Greenland is putting extra "pressure" on the PV lobe to the S/SW?

I've noticed the notch/es continue to eek SW'ward over the last 48 hours

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

With such intense cold air in play this has serious potential.  Amazingly it looks like the GFS owned the ECMWF again.

Just remember this hasn’t happened just yet. Encouraging signs but it could change by the next run or two. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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Pretty sure that little ULL offshore is about to merge with the main trough on this run...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3012400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This run looks like potential holy sheit cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Arctic front snow through Thursday morning...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr-3044800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Arctic front snow through Thursday morning...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr-3044800.png

That’d be real nice. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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Wow!  This is COLD.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 54

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Rug pull-back?

I'm wondering if that mega ridge west of Greenland is putting extra "pressure" on the PV lobe to the S/SW?

I've noticed the notch/es continue to eek SW'ward over the last 48 hours

Rob, do you concur or am I seeing s***?

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Wow, ya'll get your cold, I get my strong easterlies, all is right with this run 🥰

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Chilly in northern parts of the region.

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Looks like the euro spits out a sub 30 high temp here Friday next week. Would be our first in 7 years. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-66

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