Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 18z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 For my location--Â The GFS is the best-- but right now it seems to be the outlier. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Temps in the mid/upper 10's during this system will make this snow extremely fluffy and with the wind blowing the white stuff around, it'll feel like a Holiday! Â 850's look to be -15C or lower maximizing snowfall ratios if not close to 25:1 or so. Â This is the kind of snowfall that can wreck havoc on travelers and roadways as it is usually a "slippery" snow on the roadways when the salt doesn't really work that well with temps that low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wow check out sref ratios. 35:1 on the northern flank of band Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wow check out sref ratios. 35:1 on the northern flank of bandThat's what I'm talking about. Â There was a system like this back in Chicago a few years back near Christmas Day that produced 6-10" of snow in a small band with only .20qpf or so. Â Can't really remember what year that was but the snowflakes were almost "see through". Â Very dry dendrites like LES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/ifps/TotalSnow/TotalSnow2_Fcst.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 NAM and GFS showing 5+ inches for a broad area. Hope models stay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 MKX predicts snow ratios to be around 30:1 and talked about possible warning snows. Hopefully this storm ends up going a tad North, but trends are not in my favor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 Not saying this will be the case, but I've seen a lot of clippers trend south some during this period, only to come back north a little as the storm gets close. I'm sitting pretty good tho, just excited that I may actually have a shot at some real snowfall. Although I've already said that a couple times this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 3, 2015 Report Share Posted January 3, 2015 MKX predicts snow ratios to be around 30:1 and talked about possible warning snows. Hopefully this storm ends up going a tad North, but trends are not in my favor.30:1 ratio is really pushing it. I'm thinking 25:1 will be the max with this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Srefs look like they bumped north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think this system will have a wide area of 4-8" in the heaviest band, maybe even more in some spots. Ratios:Â Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Â 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 00z NAM coming in even more juicier and a smig north... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 An the southern cutoff on these clippers is nasty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 00z NAM coming in even more juicier and a smig north...Of course, you Chicago folks get destroyed, while we may not be so lucky here.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Nam looks like it went more North. MKE seems to get into the action. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 An the southern cutoff on these clippers is nastyAlways the case and when that Clipper wants to pivot is important as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Ya whoever gets in on the pivot with this one is gonna have a nice lollipop with this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Of course, you Chicago folks get destroyed, while we may not be so lucky here.... We'll see..I'd like to say I'm comfortable where I sit, but knowing that arctic air likes to push things south it keeps me sane.  I know this Clipper is in weakening stages as it comes east so I doubt it cuts any farther north than this.  If it would strengthen, that would be a different story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z hi-res NAM going all-out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z hi-res NAM going all-out.Can you post a map with the calculated snow ratios??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015  Can you post a map with the calculated snow ratios??? I can't post from my phone but it is insane..22" in spots Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015  Can you post a map with the calculated snow ratios??? I can't post from my phone but it is insane..22" in spotsWhat?!  LOL..maybe Tim or Money can post them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z hi-res NAM.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015010400/namconus_asnow_us_21.pngFWIW, 0z GFS is a touch south of the 18z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z hi-res NAM.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015010400/namconus_asnow_us_21.pngFWIW, 0z GFS is a touch south of the 18z GFS. At 48 hours though it interestingly looks exactly the same as at 60 hours of 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 00Z gfs 48 hours snowfall through 60--- further S. this is coming down to the wire- It will be thrown out because it destroys my stomping grounds Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015   Can you post a map with the calculated snow ratios??? I can't post from my phone but it is insane..22" in spots  Dear lord, I'd love to see that! I'm right in that 20"+ area. If only there wasn't such a discrepancy between that and the GFS... could literally be a dusting or a possible 10"+ storm for us in SE Minnesota Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 PAR GFS-- just a tad even further south--- me likes the trends-- but again until this energy comes ashore tomorrow,, I would rather be further N.- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 The nam historically has a northerly and too wet bias. Not to say it couldn't be right. The gfs and pgfs are much further south, but still pretty high on qpf. Ukmet just came out and looks just like the gfs. Ggem just came out and looks like the gfs as well. Right now the only other model remotely supporting the nam is the euro. Which is further south than the nam but further north than both gfs models and the uk and Canadian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 For now, I'll trust the global models more. The system has been barely sampled (if it even has been sampled.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 SREF plumes are on the rise quickly. Everything from 3.5-17.5" here. With a mean of 9.5".  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150103&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.6175418901816&mLON=-88.65673697814941&mTYP=roadmap A sounding at Madison showing a 400mb deep Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ). That isn't seen very often. This system could easily produce white out conditions. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think what we should take from the High Rez NAM is not the snow fall totals, but instead I think the model may be trying to hint at some very intense banding with this system. Â In the summer, it does well with severe wx outbreaks and can pin point where the heavier lines of storms set up. Â It might be the case here but track is ultimately not set in stone yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Little slide south, but looks solid!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 I like the Euro trend south. Even before the energy is onshore -- a trend one way or the other is huge with the Euro. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Nice to see our 2 minor snow events yesterday.  DVN updated to 6 inches for me with a WSW. Says isolated 8+ inches with 30:1! I am on vacation till Feb so bring it! 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter  78.1"  Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage  : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow  : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Man this thing looks locked and loaded for the Iowa/Illinois posters. Could see some subtle shifts yet I am sure. If anything I would guess maybe another bump south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 6z gfs and pgfs shifted a tad further south yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 So what model was the most accurate with the New Year's Eve storm's track/amounts? Just curious to see what we should maybe be paying more attention to for this one (If that even matters). With the 6z runs, the NAM seems a little bit more widespread with totals, and the GFS seems a touch more south. Do any snow maps even take into account a possible 25:1 ratio? Thanks everyone for all the info! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 So what model was the most accurate with the New Year's Eve storm's track/amounts? Just curious to see what we should maybe be paying more attention to for this one (If that even matters). With the 6z runs, the NAM seems a little bit more widespread with totals, and the GFS seems a touch more south. Do any snow maps even take into account a possible 25:1 ratio? Thanks everyone for all the info!Yes, these maps take into account snowfall ratios.  Looks like DSM/DVN in line with the most accumulations from this Clipper right now.  Full sampling of this piece of energy will happen by 00z tonight so could see some minor shifts but I think track is set for now.  Past experience told me shifts south would happen and look what it did. First WSW of the year, probably downgraded to a WWA tomorrow if track stays put for NE IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.