February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Skagit Weather]

Of course, maybe I should specify Washington. Oregon looks much better.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022612/images_d3/or_snow72.72.0000.gif

[epiceast]

Of course, maybe I should specify Washington. Oregon looks much better.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022612/images_d3/or_snow72.72.0000.gif

Yea, but there is literally no snow south of Hood

[TT-SEA]

Hmmm...Not sure that any of the ski areas are really going to benefit that much from the coming couple of days.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015022612/images_d3/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif

 

 

They will not benefit... just starved for moisture.   

[HighlandExperience]

Yea, but there is literally no snow south of Hood

Ya the Oregon cascasdes have essentially no snow pack this winter. It is frustrating that this dry pattern has been persistent

[Front Ranger]

Shawnigan lake is a rural station in the PNW and 2014 was the warmest year on record. Or are we strictly talking about monthly records?

 

There's no doubt 2014 was a very warm year for the PNW. 

 

But yeah, the discussion was about monthly records. PDX and especially SEA lately have been seeing them much more often than the non-developed stations.

[Front Ranger]

I guess I should've just said flatiron.

 

Yeah, except I never said anything about the last few days of the month mitigating PDX's run at a record month.

 

You thinking of the post where I went through most of the major stations throughout the West and assessed their odds of a record warm month? Because I didn't mention PDX in that, except to say you're probably familiar with their situation.

[Canadian guy]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

Surprised to see so many cold members still.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even a lot of the ensembles for PDX are down around -10C...Fascinating. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z is a pile of dung

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Its a dung beetle.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This winter is so terrible its comical.

[DareDuck]

In Bend and there's a WWA for 2-4 inches of snow. Hopefully I'll be living here in 2 weeks. Looks like Bachelor may pick up a decent amount.

[HighlandExperience]

This winter is so terrible its comical.

 

Parts of Northern Alabama got a foot of snow today, that is even more comical. 

[pscz1140]

Yea, but there is literally no snow south of Hood

 

Somehow there's an 87 inch base at Bachelor, and it looks like they're about to get a lot more.

 

http://www.mtbachelor.com/site/plan/info/winterconditions

[epiceast]

Somehow there's an 87 inch base at Bachelor, and it looks like they're about to get a lot more.

 

http://www.mtbachelor.com/site/plan/info/winterconditions

It's subalpine, so doesn't really count. Normal elevations of 4k' and 5k' are bare. But Bachelor has been doing very well this season, being just above the snow line for a lot of these storms.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, I mean I am old enough to remember the trainwreck winters of 2004-05, 2002-03, and 1991-92, but this one takes the cake. 

 

Never seen anything like it and hopefully never will again. Probably the worst winter since 1933-34.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's subalpine, so doesn't really count. Normal elevations of 4k' and 5k' are bare. But Bachelor has been doing very well this season, being just above the snow line for a lot of these storms.

 

I think it counts. Because its happened. But I understand your point. 

[HighlandExperience]

Yeah, I mean I am old enough to remember the trainwreck winters of 2004-05, 2002-03, and 1991-92, but this one takes the cake.

 

Never seen anything like it and hopefully never will again. Probably the worst winter since 1933-34.

Never thought I'd see another season as bad as 04/05

[pscz1140]

It's subalpine, so doesn't really count. Normal elevations of 4k' and 5k' are bare. But Bachelor has been doing very well this season, being just above the snow line for a lot of these storms.

 

He was talking about ski resorts, though.

 

I've been to Bachelor - people pay money to slide on snow there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He was talking about ski resorts, though.

 

I've been to Bachelor - people pay money to slide on snow there.

 

Bachelor is a ski resort. Are you confusing it with Mt. Hood SkiBowl?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Never thought I'd see another season as bad as 04/05

 

In a way I'm glad this winter never redeemed itself. Its good to have a total stinker. We were due for some torching. We hadn't had a real torch winter month in about 5 years. We were due. We have this out of our system now....

[pscz1140]

Bachelor is a ski resort. Are you confusing it with Mt. Hood SkiBowl?

 

Lol, nope. I stayed in Bend and skied at Bachelor two years ago. Great skiing off the summit - awesome mountain overall.

 

I guess my attempt at jack***edry backfired.

[HighlandExperience]

In a way I'm glad this winter never redeemed itself. Its good to have a total stinker. We were due for some torching. We hadn't had a real torch winter month in about 5 years. We were due. We have this out of our system now....

I thought last year was bad enough

[epiceast]

There are other places to ski than ski resorts. Anyway Oregon is in much much worse shape than Washington. Some accessible Northeastern Cascade locations have almost average snow-water-equivalents right now(above 5k'). It's a shame forest service and state DOT's haven't opened the bare roads below 5k' that are typically closed in winter, we could have some opportunities to get some very unusual tours & views in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought last year was bad enough

 

Last year was pretty good. Two major arctic outbreaks. Two major lowland snowstorms. I guess not for W. Washington, but from Redding to PDX it was a good winter. Wasn't great for the mountains, but ended up OK because of the wet spring. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There are other places to ski than ski resorts. Anyway Oregon is in much much worse shape than Washington. Some accessible Northeastern Cascade locations have almost average snow-water-equivalents right now(above 5k'). It's a shame forest service and state DOT's haven't opened the bare roads below 5k' that are typically closed in winter, we could have some opportunities to get some very unusual tours & views in.

 

They are lazy, but they probably blame it on funding.

[HighlandExperience]

There are other places to ski than ski resorts. Anyway Oregon is in much much worse shape than Washington. Some accessible Northeastern Cascade locations have almost average snow-water-equivalents right now(above 5k'). It's a shame forest service and state DOT's haven't opened the bare roads below 5k' that are typically closed in winter, we could have some opportunities to get some very unusual tours & views in.

Plenty of stuff if you backcountry set up for skiing

[HighlandExperience]

Last year was pretty good. Two major arctic outbreaks. Two major lowland snowstorms. I guess not for W. Washington, but from Redding to PDX it was a good winter. Wasn't great for the mountains, but ended up OK because of the wet spring.

I was thinking more of the mountains

[pscz1140]

There are other places to ski than ski resorts. Anyway Oregon is in much much worse shape than Washington. Some accessible Northeastern Cascade locations have almost average snow-water-equivalents right now(above 5k'). It's a shame forest service and state DOT's haven't opened the bare roads below 5k' that are typically closed in winter, we could have some opportunities to get some very unusual tours & views in.

 

Yeah, Bachelor has been lucky.

 

I'll probably ski below Camp Muir later this spring. I was pretty high above Paradise hiking in the snow last June with tons of people skiing past me (and some marmots) in some pretty carvable snow. It brought back good memories of skiing Tuckerman's Ravine (below) in late May growing up.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Tonight's little system has ended up being pretty juicy around here.  Moderate steady rain since about 6pm.  Looks like most places on Vancouver island will end up with 0.5 - 1" of rain or so.

 

Its been snowing some up in the mountains too.

 

http://mountwashington.ca/images/webcams/hawk/big4.jpg

[TT-SEA]

1.00 at SEA since last night.

This is now a significantly wet month at that station.  

 

Around 5.25 inches for the month while normal is 3.50 inches.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oddly still some pretty cold ensembles for early next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Boston looks like they'll end the month with about a 13 degree departure. 

[Phil]

Looking at the Dec/Jan PDO numbers, it looks like they're the highest for those months in the ~115 year record, beating out both of the last warm phases. Hopefully, those who once doubted that the PDO is a reflection of lower frequency atmospheric circulation have re-assessed.

 

We moved into this unstable regimen abruptly, back in January 2013, as solar forcing increased and years of -ENSO inertia weakened the BDC and increased the Hadley-Walker ratio in the tropics. It took the PDO signature over a year to fully respond. Expect a similar, slow response back to a -PDO signature when the tropical-stratospheric relationship changes its sign again in 2016, when we'll begin a move towards a La Niña/-QBO under weakening solar forcing.

[stuffradio]

Environment Canada says I'm supposed to reach a low of 21 Tuesday night into Wednesday. #AGW #GlobalWarming

[TT-SEA]

There seems to be an eastward shift in the models with the big cold and snow event on Monday and Tuesday.     Still looking at -10C for SEA?   Jared??

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_096_500_vort_ht.gif

[pscz1140]

6 inches new at Crystal with more to come. The litte micro system that could!

 

Skiing is probably pretty good on top, though the 3 inch base at the bottom is pretty lolable.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There seems to be an eastward shift in the models with the big cold and snow event on Monday and Tuesday. Still looking at -10C for SEA? Jared??

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_096_500_vort_ht.gif

Some of the ensembles still have it.

[TT-SEA]

Some of the ensembles still have it.

 

 

Ensembles are great at 72 hours out... when the operational models are all trending clearly eastward.

[Deweydog]

There seems to be an eastward shift in the models with the big cold and snow event on Monday and Tuesday. Still looking at -10C for SEA? Jared??

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_096_500_vort_ht.gif

Silly gumdrop! The models never showed a big cold and snow event!