February 2014 in the PNW

[Black Hole]

Where are you moving to now Jesse?

[Jesse]

Where are you moving to now Jesse?

 

Probably back to the Portland area for a little while. Then possibly Bellingham.

[TT-SEA]

Probably back to the Portland area for a little while. Then possibly Bellingham.

 

Ellensburg is out?

[Weather101]

This is encouraging from the GEM, considering it was the first to show the all south event that happened today.

 

canadian.gif

This is for tmrw? Or?

[epiceast]

Snowing at Denny Creek. Maybe some snow at Tims as well?

[epiceast]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

hour 48 potentially showing 2 centimeters in Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

hour 48 potentially showing 2 centimeters in Seattle.

 

 

Old run... 48 hours is Sun 00Z now.

[TT-SEA]

Snowing at Denny Creek. Maybe some snow at Tims as well?

 

Few flurries... moon shining through the clouds.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

hour 48 potentially showing 2 centimeters in Seattle.

Need more.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It has been absolutely dumping snow here for the past hour or so.

[epiceast]

Old run... 48 hours is Sun 00Z now.

How can you tell if the run is new or old if you don't know what the old run looks like.

[TT-SEA]

How can you tell if the run is new or old if you don't know what the old run looks like.

 

Bottom of the frame tells you the time of the image.   This is the new 48 hour version...

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Interesting read tonight on the nsw forecast discussion.

[Skagit Weather]

Where are all the pictures from today??? We northerners need our snow fix.

I can't imagine that no one has taken any pictures or doesn't know how to upload them.

[epiceast]

Bottom of the frame tells you the time of the image.   This is the new 48 hour version...

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

Seems the same as I posted, showing 2cm of snow(2mm*10) or more

[GHweatherChris]

Bottom of the frame tells you the time of the image.   This is the new 48 hour version...

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

So this is 4 pm Saturday, looks good to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This last snow band has dumped 2" in the past hour. Up to 5" on the day. I feel much better about today's event now!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Offshore flow all weekend. Going to be fun to see how this plays out.

[Skagit Weather]

Sounds like Seattle NWS has finally given some credence to the possibility this cold air won't budge as easily as they previously thought:

 

GIVEN THE DEPTH OF

THE COLD AIR AND THE EASTERLY PRES GRADIENTS...AS WELL AS THE SUB-32

DEG DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS

SNOW SUN NIGHT AND MAY GO TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE

GRADIENTS FINALLY TURN ONSHORE MON AFTERNOON

Yeah, it seems like some of this should end up being snow. 24 hours ending Monday at 4 p.m.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020700/images_d2/ww_pcp24.96.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Offshore flow all weekend. Going to be fun to see how this plays out.

 

Sunday is not really true offshore flow... its warming up as well.

 

There is solid precip by Monday morning:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/pcp1.84.0000.gif

 

 

And its rain:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.84.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, it seems like some of this should end up being snow. 24 hours ending Monday at 4 p.m.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020700/images_d2/ww_pcp24.96.0000.gif

 

 

No flippin way...  

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.96.0000.gif

[Deweydog]

I don't know how to act in these situations.  It's been so long since we've run the table down here in such a way.  

[TT-SEA]

Snow through Sunday afternoon... some of this is falling now in the mountains.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif

 

 

Snow from 4 p.m. Sunday through 4 p.m. Monday:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/snow24.96.0000.gif

 

 

Not even close.

[TT-SEA]

Starting Monday it turns quite rainy... and getting warm to the south.     Here is Wednesday:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.144.0000.gif

[brody]

Snow through Sunday afternoon... some of this is falling now in the mountains.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif

 

 

Snow from 4 p.m. Sunday through 4 p.m. Monday:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/snow24.96.0000.gif

 

 

Not even close.

Let people have hope about snow even if you're SO certain it will warm up and be all rain.

 

Your negativity and bipolar attitude is beyond tiresome, just STOP already!

[Snowman5678]

This last snow band has dumped 2" in the past hour. Up to 5" on the day. I feel much better about today's event now!

Glad you recovered after being inbetween the two heavy bands.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No flippin way...  

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.96.0000.gif

No way the cold air in eastern wa dissipates so fast as shown. We have seen this many many times. Not going to happen.

[thekingslayer]

I don't know how to act in these situations.  It's been so long since we've run the table down here in such a way.  

 

 So true. I've been so giddy all D**n day. E wind has weakened considerably here and everything just looks so gorgeous now 

[TT-SEA]

Let people have hope about snow even if you're SO certain it will warm up and be all rain.

 

Your negativity and bipolar attitude is beyond tiresome, just STOP already!

 

 

How is it bipolar to be realistic??    

 

This stuff drives me nuts... we just pretend that its not way too warm to snow on Monday?    Ignore all the models?    

 

Portland had an awesome event and may not be done.    But that does not mean we just sugar-coat Monday up here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Notice how the warm up keeps getting pushed out 12 hrs later every day?

[pscz1140]

I don't know how to act in these situations.  It's been so long since we've run the table down here in such a way.  

 

Perhaps run outside naked and/or sacrifice a chicken?

[TT-SEA]

All right... it will snow all weekend at SEA and next week as well.

 

That is my forecast.

 

GFS MOS has 40 on Saturday and 44 on Sunday at SEA.    And 47 on Monday.

 

But because the last couple days were colder than anticipated... then it will of course be wrong forever.   

 

And so wrong that it will be snowing like crazy on Monday in Seattle!    

[TT-SEA]

Notice how the warm up keeps getting pushed out 12 hrs later every day?

 

No... its actually warmed up for Sunday since yesterday.

[luminen]

Starting Monday it turns quite rainy... and getting warm to the south.     Here is Wednesday:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.144.0000.gif

 

Yeah I think I'm going to need to get an umbrella for next week...

[TT-SEA]

Yeah I think I'm going to need to get an umbrella for next week...

 

Everyone will.   

[Deweydog]

Perhaps run outside naked and/or sacrifice a chicken?

 

I do that everyday.  I feel like I should do something different seeing as though we don't get snow like this very often.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No... its actually warmed up for Sunday since yesterday.

You dont think the below freezing dew points and offshore flow will be a player as the nws noted in there latest discussion?

[KMartin]

For parts of: Southern half of WA … Most of OR … Most of ID …

Office:  TheWeatherSpace.com has issued a Winter Storm Watch effective Friday and Saturday …

Issued:  2/6/2014 at 8:45pm PST

Discussion:  Continued snow storms will be expected across the Pacific Northwest areas.  On top of what fell today, more will be expected on Friday into Saturday across OR/WA.

The storm looks to bring mostly rain to areas south of Eugene, however areas north will be all snow, some of it significant once again.  The heaviest snowfall for Southern WA will be later Friday into Saturday …

This is the snowfall projection map here at TheWeatherSpace.com so you can find your location via the county map.

http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2614d.jpg

[Dadio]

 So true. I've been so giddy all D**n day. E wind has weakened considerably here and everything just looks so gorgeous now 

I'm glad for all of you folks.

[GHweatherChris]

No... its actually warmed up for Sunday since yesterday.

So you go from convinced that we should all follow the Euro to, everyone should follow the WRF GFS.

 

What gives.

 

The next couple days will be fun and interesting in alot of areas, hopefully here, but probably not.

 

But for the sake of sanity please pick a model and stick to it and not pick one and then use another for fact.