February 2014 in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No... it did not show the same thing.   This is different.   Low off the coast with SW flow which quickly scours out the Seattle area.   The WRF last week showed the outflow and NE winds continuing for a long time in Bellingham because there was no low pressure off the coast but rather a stationary frontal boundary.

 

Seattle will wet and mild by late Sunday... this is not a situation where the cold air sticks around for a long time.    It happens this way as well... all the time.   

 

Maybe Hood Canal and Bellingham hang on a little longer but not for Seattle.  ECMWF shows the same thing.    

I know you agree a lot of it depends on where and how strong low pressure takes up shop. Yes?

[TT-SEA]

This is such a touchy situation. Cold high pressure to the north and low pressure not sure where it will be strongest somewhere off our coast. We flat out wont know what will happen until it starts to happen.

 

 

This is much more straightforward than last weekend.

 

You will see... rainy and mild in Seattle by late Sunday.   Maybe a quick shot of wet snow at the onset.    Starting Monday its a mild, wet, active pattern.

 

Still hoping for a period of ridging the following weekend which could be quite mild and spring-like.

[TT-SEA]

I know you agree a lot of it depends on where and how strong low pressure takes up shop. Yes?

 

We debate this all the time and it always end up farther north in the end.   Its not coming in south of Seattle... its just a given.   

[Guest Monty67]

We debate this all the time and it always end up farther north in the end.   Its not coming in south of Seattle... its just a given.

Looks like all rain in Seattle on the GFS. 925mb temps never even drop below freezing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is much more straightforward than last weekend.

 

You will see... rainy and mild in Seattle by late Sunday.   Maybe a quick shot of wet snow at the onset.    Starting Monday its a mild, wet, active pattern.

 

Still hoping for a period of ridging the following weekend which could be quite mild and spring-like.

It would be nice to end the winter with some snow. I am looking forward to summer though So I can drive my little hot rod here. I have never posted a non weather related pic here so I am sure it wont hurt. This is one of the cars I built. 88 mustang, almost 1000hp, loaded will all options, still has working ac, overdrive transmission, cruise control, gets 25mpg on highway and runs the 1/4 mile in the low 9 second area at 150mph. So yeah I love summer and sunshine also.

[Brennan]

So I went over to the East Coast section of this forum so I could follow the potential snowstorm here on Sunday night/Monday.... And the most recent post was from February 13th... I think it’s safe to say that people on the East Coast are done with winter...

[Parksvillewx]

12z euro snowfall maps are lame. I'm not even going to bother posting them.

[MossMan]

Feels very spring like this morning, full sun with temps already in the upper 40's. I noticed yesterday that my truck was coated in a layer of pollen and the sound of the frogs from the small lake next door to us is music to my ears, bring on spring!! Hard to believe I could be seeing snow in just a matter of hours!

[TT-SEA]

12z euro snowfall maps are lame. I'm not even going to bother posting them.

 

No surprise.  

[TT-SEA]

Feels very spring like this morning, full sun with temps already in the upper 40's. I noticed yesterday that my truck was coated in a layer of pollen and the sound of the frogs from the small lake next door to us is music to my ears, bring on spring!! Hard to believe I could be seeing snow in just a matter of hours!

 

That is spring in the PNW.    Snow and hail showers!   

 

Birds were really active this morning... awesome to hear them back and singing on a sunny morning.

 

Already up to 52 at SEA at 10 a.m. but the outflow winds are already kicking in around Bellingham.

[BLI snowman]

12z euro snowfall maps are lame. I'm not even going to bother posting them.

 

Feels like we'll be lucky to get more than 1-2" here. A bit disapppointing, but climo usually does win out in these situations.

[HighlandExperience]

No surprise.  

 

I guess it is time to start thinking of summer. Two years in a row now with pathetic snowfall.

 

Maybe next winter we will have a winter.

[Guest Monty67]

It would be nice to end the winter with some snow. I am looking forward to summer though So I can drive my little hot rod here. I have never posted a non weather related pic here so I am sure it wont hurt. This is one of the cars I built. 88 mustang, almost 1000hp, loaded will all options, still has working ac, overdrive transmission, cruise control, gets 25mpg on highway and runs the 1/4 mile in the low 9 second area at 150mph. So yeah I love summer and sunshine also.

WTF, 1000hp? That's significantly more powerful than a NASCAR engine.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

WTF, 1000hp? That's significantly more powerful than a NASCAR engine.

Supercharged.

[Parksvillewx]

It would be nice to end the winter with some snow. I am looking forward to summer though So I can drive my little hot rod here. I have never posted a non weather related pic here so I am sure it wont hurt. This is one of the cars I built. 88 mustang, almost 1000hp, loaded will all options, still has working ac, overdrive transmission, cruise control, gets 25mpg on highway and runs the 1/4 mile in the low 9 second area at 150mph. So yeah I love summer and sunshine also.

 

Dyno sheet?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dyno sheet?

Yeah I have to did them up. Last time it made around 800 at the tires. That's around 1000 at the crankshaft when you have a auto trans.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1000 hp out of that little V8?  or did you swap motors and add NO2?  Let's see a video when the weather gets warmer.

It is a 347 with a supercharger. 25lbs boost. You can pm me if you want to know more. Don't want to get in trouble.lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Boy this thing sure didn't pan out. The euro looks boring.

[GHweatherChris]

Boy this thing sure didn't pan out. The euro looks boring.

I am rooting for NAM.

 

Everyone loves the underdog.

[TT-SEA]

Boy this thing sure didn't pan out. The euro looks boring.

 

 

Not if you love a week straight of pounding rain!!   

[HighlandExperience]

Boy this thing sure didn't pan out. The euro looks boring.

 

This climate is fickle.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not if you love a week straight of pounding rain!!   

Still have to just see what happens with the outflow. I have seen some crazy outcomes with the outflow strength over the years that the models didn't handle well.

[HighlandExperience]

Still have to just see what happens with the outflow. I have seen some crazy outcomes with the outflow strength over the years that the models didn't handle well.

 

It would be nice to get a surpise for once.

[TT-SEA]

Still have to just see what happens with the outflow. I have seen some crazy outcomes with the outflow strength over the years that the models didn't handle well.

 

 

Way too much energy plowing through... its not even close this time around.    A rainy, windy, mild week ahead.

[Jesse]

The weather pattern the next 7-10 days sure looks like a snoozer. Mild and damp. Not good for the cascades but great for fans of 55 degree light rain!

 

Next weekend is looking like it could be decent but I wouldn't count on it yet.

[seattleweatherguy]

Wow its already 53 in seattle

[Guest Monty67]

Wow its already 53 in seattle

Its up to 48F in Abbotsford, even with a 40mph NE wind.

[Weather101]

Its up to 48F in Abbotsford, even with a 40mph NE wind.

There dewpoint are really low tho 17F

[Jesse]

The west is really due for a major period of troughing.

 

Even this month only featured below normal temps for the northern tier of the west. Most of California and the southwest and intermountain west were well above average.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There dewpoint are really low tho 17F

We are going to have some very dry air to work with. That will help this weekend.

[Bryant]

There dewpoint are really low tho 17F

Their dewpoint is really low though*

[Weather101]

Their dewpoint is really low though*

Ok Jesse

[Phil]

The west is really due for a major period of troughing.

 

Even this month only featured below normal temps for the northern tier of the west. Most of California and the southwest and intermountain west were well above average.

I don't agree with the concept of being "due". Even if the system state were 100% random, your chances will remain 50/50 regardless of previous behavior.

 

However the climate system is anything but random, and the persistent regime this winter was a result of specific, large scale forcings. When the broad forcing-disequilibrium divergence & and/or external forcings change up, so will the global circulations When that occurs depends on when we see a shift in the dominant forcings operating on/within the tropical domain.

[HighlandExperience]

I don't agree with the concept of being "due". Even if the system state were 100% random, your chances will remain 50/50 regardless of previous behavior.

 

However the climate system is anything but random, and the persistent regime this winter was a result of specific, large scale forcings. When the broad forcing-disequilibrium divergence & and/or external forcings change up, so will the global circulations When that occurs depends on when we see a shift in the dominant forcings operating on/within the tropical domain.

 

Sure seemed like we were getting our "due" when 15 feet of snow dropped in the Cascades in ten days.

[epiceast]

Sure seemed like we were getting our "due" when 15 feet of snow dropped in the Cascades in ten days.

15feet in very favored locations... 10feet in the passes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As my brother told me yesterday, in a borderline situation in March always go with climo!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why does our weather always suck?

[luminen]

It's been in the low to mid 40s all day and socked in here in Eugene. Boo.

 

I'm so ready for sunshine and 70F.

[TT-SEA]

Why does our weather always suck?

 

60 degrees and sunny here.   The opposite of sucking today!    Next week will make up for that.

 

Here are my boys walking home from the bus stop just now... they are complaining that its too cold here.    They are not going to like the next 7 days!

 

[Weather101]

60 degrees and sunny here. The opposite of sucking today! Next week will make up for that.

 

Here are my boys walking home from the bus stop just now... they are complaining that its too cold here. They are not going to like the next 7 days!

 

Still too cool out for me to wear shorts and just a t-shirt