February 4-5th Possible Major Winter Storm

[MKEstorm]

weather.com said that from se neb to ne ks to mich could get any where from a foot to 2 feet of snow

 

Ya, I saw that...but I think they meant from both storms combined!

[jcwxguy]

weather.com said that from se neb to ne ks to mich could get any where from a foot to 2 feet of snow

ill have what they have been drinking 

[OmahaBubble]

weather.com said that from se neb to ne ks to mich could get any where from a foot to 2 feet of snow

Listening to TWC was your first mistake.

[dubuque473]

DVN mentioning around 3-5 for us..

[Money]

Hopefully the 12z runs trend to a more stronger/nw storm. Took a step back on 0z.

[DominicR]

NAM seems to be going SE to but man long way to go still.

[winterfreak]

The SE trend has been pretty evident for the last couple of days. Come on models.

[Sciascia]

I know Chicago's had a great winter so far. But if this 10 day pattern ends up producing 3 moderate/big storms and if the main action ends up just SE of here on all of them, that would feel like a little kick in the nuggets.

[Sciascia]

3-5" over here on this run. No yellow 12"+ lollipops for anyone in the MW on this run.

[Money]

Well, the snow ends up NW of 6z so maybe its a start. 6+ line gets up to Chicago or just about. 3-4 up here.  

[bud2380]

Definitely an improvement over 6z run, but not as good as 00z euro. Hopefully the euro sticks to its guns this run

[Tom]

12z Euro nice hit KS/NE/N MO...

 

 

[Tom]

12z Euro Snowfall...looks like it wants to fill in the "snow hole" with this storm.  I think tomorrow's 12z runs will have some changes as this system will be entering the west coast into California.  Better data will be sampled and as it comes onshore even into the 4 corners region we can have some shifts in the storm track and intensity.  The system definitely starts off very well, but then never manages to intensify even more as it ejects NE.

 

[winterfreak]

Eh looks pretty good but the real good precip misses me a little to the north.. This might be it as far as major storms go this winter so hope this one pans out. Must admit that next Friday looks like it could be interesting.

[indianajohn]

Man the possibility this thing becoming a MONSTER is evident but will it come to fruition?? Million Dollar Question

[Niko]

Latest trends are SE movements. Favors the east coast now.

[indianajohn]

I think the models are just going crazy right now trying to figure it out....I guess we will know for sure on Wednesday LOL 

[bud2380]

I think this will be a light snow event for much of Iowa and Chicago. Southern Iowa northern Missouri into central Illinois seem to be in the favored spot right now for heavier snow. Much like most of this winter.

[Sciascia]

http://imageshack.com/a/img812/2176/w909.gif

[Scott26]

http://imageshack.com/a/img812/2176/w909.gif

Still snowing. This would basically make most of our posters here very happy. Of course it's the 84 hour NAM so it's too good to be true lol. But, you really still can't count out a further NW solution. The January 5th-6th storm looked pretty terrible overall up to a couple of days before the event. It also trended NW big time the day before. This may be similar. With all this moisture in the cold sector this still has a chance to be the biggest storm of the season so far for someone.

[The Snowman]

Would watch that 18z NAM track for the future in case models are still holding onto their too-weak-SE Ridge bias and too-south-storm-track bias that I wrote about in a blog post a couple days back.

 

Amounts wouldn't verify verbatim, but liking what's showing up here.

[Tom]

I have been saying a track through S IL seems reasonable and maybe the 18z NAM is onto something for future runs as models start digesting better data.  BTW, 18z NAM has temps in the 10's for this event!  Pretty darn cold with high snow ratios and a favorable set up for LehS.

 

Edit: Check that, temps are in low 20's, still pretty cold to generate fluffy snow.

[dubuque473]

Still sounds like a solid 3-6" in these parts and I will take it. Sounds like next weekend there is more coming per DVN

[East Dubzz]

Still sounds like a solid 3-6" in these parts and I will take it. Sounds like next weekend there is more coming per DVN

Yup models been picking up on that as well.

 

Both followed by an arctic blast... Goodness it gets old! Lol

[tim the weatherman]

i am thinking that we are looking a foot or foot and a half.

[East Dubzz]

i am thinking that we are looking a foot or foot and a half.

You're gonna get your storm, buddy, just gotta keep that positive attitude!! Lol I wish I could think like this guy!

[Sciascia]

GFS running. Let's see if there's some movement on this run. If the other models show even a hint of the NAM's solution, this may become another pull-your-hair-out model watching obsession nightmare lol.

[Tom]

18z NAM Precip...

 

 

[winterfreak]

Perfect track but it's the 84hr NAM as someone pointed out.

[Sciascia]

GFS comes back & tells everyone that the NAM is on crack. Still SE & not big strength.

[Money]

The HP is quicker and stronger this run.

[East Dubzz]

The HP is quicker and stronger this run.

Not good. After showing some signs of weakening in prior runs, it now has been consistently showing a big impact on this storm on most models.

[Scott26]

GFS and Euro have been pretty consistent. The NAM is likely in outer space, but you can't discount it yet.

[indianajohn]

Just seen this video by Jonathan Stewart on the daily show in regards to the "snowstorm" in Atlanta it hilarious!!! Fast forward to 1:50 

http://youtu.be/awHQpwxh8zs

[DominicR]

Man how sweet that be if NAM verified!

[Geos]

EURO is taking this east and south. I'm thinking this will be a 6" storm around here. 

[DominicR]

Yeah well plenty of time to keep an eye on it. It's still a decent storm. Not the big dog we thought a few days ago right now.

[WBadgersW]

Looking like another miss here. Still have a little hope that this storm will trend NW. Time will tell.

[DominicR]

Looking like another miss here. Still have a little hope that this storm will trend NW. Time will tell.

 

You guys should be able to get some. This is gonna be pretty widespread and far way from SLP.

[indianajohn]

So is everyone in agreement this won't turn into a Monster storm?