GHweatherChris Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 How can someone get away with posting actively from 2 different accounts on here... just curious. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Just now, GHweatherChris said: How can someone get away with posting actively from 2 different accounts on here... just curious. Run it through a vpn to block your IP address 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Run it through a vpn to block your IP address It was a facetious question, but it is happening by someone without recourse. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Nine times out of ten that Winter’s large scale pattern would have resulted in a very good Winter here. Tiny details just kept screwing most people below 800 feet. Lack of upstream amplification was the primary killer. Could be a challenge again this winter. Then again I suppose that could be said about the majority of winters in the post-1998 era. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Lack of upstream amplification was the primary killer. Could be a challenge again this winter. Then again I suppose that could be said about the majority of winters in the post-1998 era. I don’t think we have had a winter in my weenie lifetime where there has been enough upstream blocking to our liking. 2007-08 had more than people are willing to give it credit for. Fine details just didn’t shake out. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I don’t think we have had a winter in my weenie lifetime where there has been enough upstream blocking to our liking. 2007-08 had more than people are willing to give it credit for. Fine details just didn’t shake out. Did it, though? That was a +EPO/+NPO winter through and through. Sure there was a persistent -PNA, broad Aleutian ridging, etc, but that seldom delivers the goods by itself. Especially nowadays in the +NAM era, it is a very difficult pattern to make work. The only exceptions post-WWII were +QBO/W-shear. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 The cooling trend on the GFS for next Monday night is quite remarkable. The run to run change vs the 18z is -20 in some cases. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Getting perilously close to a Portland bust. Still looking solid. For now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 00z GEFS thru 240 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 00z GEFS - 850 temp anomaly - hr240 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 GFS is boring. Less than an inch of rain for the next week or so. Pretty big dropoff and we're still in extreme drought. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 One look at 2007/08 versus 2008/09 and it’s clear what went wrong with the former. Very hard to dislodge the TPV with such a flat Aleutian ridge. Compare that to amplification in 2008/09. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 21 minutes ago, Phil said: Lack of upstream amplification was the primary killer. Could be a challenge again this winter. Then again I suppose that could be said about the majority of winters in the post-1998 era. My money is on at least slightly more amplification this winter. If nothing else just because this -QBO isn't as strong as 2007 and is having a much later onset at the 50mb level. This year just has a different feel to it than most recent years. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: One look at 2007/08 versus 2008/09 and it’s clear what went wrong with the former. Very hard to dislodge the TPV with such a flat Aleutian ridge. In 2008/09 there was a notable poleward amplification. It wouldn't have taken much to make 2007-08 much better though. I think that winter is at high end of the envelope for possible EPO outcomes this winter. We'll know soon enough. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: GFS is boring. Less than an inch of rain for the next week or so. Pretty big dropoff and we're still in extreme drought. I'm done looking for rain. Now it's all about cold. There certainly is some of that on this run. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Phil said: One look at 2007/08 versus 2008/09 and it’s clear what went wrong with the former. Very hard to dislodge the TPV with such a flat Aleutian ridge. Compare that to amplification in 2008/09. Very interesting maps. You’ll rarely see enough amplification over the course of three months on a map like that though. There was plenty of time in 07/08 when the ridge amplified enough that we normally would have seen the goodies. If that Winter had been 2 degrees cooler Seattle would have seen like 20 inches of snow and outlying areas would have seen 30-40”. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Call me when it will actually rain 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, Phil said: Did it, though? That was a +EPO/+NPO winter through and through. Sure there was a persistent -PNA, broad Aleutian ridging, etc, but that seldom delivers the goods by itself. Especially nowadays in the +NAM era, it is a very difficult pattern to make work. The only exceptions post-WWII were +QBO/W-shear. KISS… We had two extremely favorable patterns in late November and the second half of January. If the finer details during one or both of those periods get tweaked toward the sexy, that winter gets looked at through an entirely different lens. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: I seriously think if Tim and Chris’s lips touch, the forum will instantly cease to exist and our climate will immediately revert to the mid 19th century. No more worries about climate change if that happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: My money is on at least slightly more amplification this winter. If nothing else just because this -QBO isn't as strong as 2007 and is having a much later onset at the 50mb level. This year just has a different feel to it than most recent years. You could be right. I hope you are..I’d love to avoid repeating 2007/08. I’m not making a call either way. I’m just pointing out that the large scale pattern evolution has matched 2007/08 extraordinarily well, and that we shouldn’t wishcast it away as a possible outcome. How it ultimately unfolds is yet to be determined, obviously. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Very interesting maps. You’ll rarely see enough amplification over the course of three months on a map like that though. There was plenty of time in 07/08 when the ridge amplified enough that we normally would have seen the goodies. If that Winter had been 2 degrees cooler Seattle would have seen like 20 inches of snow and outlying areas would have seen 30-40”. Indeed. I have been talking a lot about 1970 which was a slightly more amplified version of 2007-08. It too was near solar minimum, La Nina, and -QBO. Besides that it has matched the CPC analogs many more times than 2007 recently. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: You could be right. I hope you are..I’d love to avoid repeating 2007/08. I’m not making a call either way. I’m just pointing out that the large scale pattern evolution has matched 2007/08 extraordinarily well, and that we shouldn’t dismiss it as a possible outcome. That seems like wishcasting to me. How it ultimately unfolds is yet to be determined, obviously. I'm just saying that was a pretty extreme case of +EPO that winter. This winter has a good chance of doing better. For one thing recent winters have been quite a bit better on the whole than what we saw in the early part of this century. I did a composite of the last 3 weeks and compared it to the same period for 1970 and it's a great match to this year. Better than 2007. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 1971-1972 repeat incoming! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Seattle is at 9” of rain in the last 5 weeks with lots more to come. I have to say this has been one of the more consistent stretches of rain I can remember. It’s been very consistent with most days having considerably decent rainy totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, Deweydog said: KISS… We had two extremely favorable patterns in late November and the second half of January. If the finer details during one or both of those periods get tweaked toward the sexy, that winter gets looked at through an entirely different lens. The second half of January had the same problem, though. This is textbook rossby wave dispersion, with the in-situ +EPO/+NPO background state contributing to the lack of wholesale meridional displacement of the TPV. Yes the GOA ridge looks “amplified” on the surface, but what is going on under the hood tells a much different story. This isn’t easy to convey visually, unfortunately. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 There are some on here who dream of January 2008. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Rainfall totals ending 4 PM Friday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Very interesting maps. You’ll rarely see enough amplification over the course of three months on a map like that though. There was plenty of time in 07/08 when the ridge amplified enough that we normally would have seen the goodies. If that Winter had been 2 degrees cooler Seattle would have seen like 20 inches of snow and outlying areas would have seen 30-40”. Yes, I believe you are correct about that. I was specifically highlighting the mean state. Because the subseasonal pattern variability in question generally arises from/through the mean/low frequency state, which can dictate many aspects of the evolution. The challenges in mid/late January 2008 were dynamically linked to the challenges posed by the shoddy low frequency/mean state that entire winter. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 I do remember being back from college in December 2007 and it snowing almost an inch on Christmas Day in Silverton. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 FWIW January 2008 is tied (2013) for the coldest January at SLE between 1993 and 2017... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Indeed. I have been talking a lot about 1970 which was a slightly more amplified version of 2007-08. It too was near solar minimum, La Nina, and -QBO. Besides that it has matched the CPC analogs many more times than 2007 recently. And that could absolutely hold true this winter. Again, all I’m saying is a 2007/08 type outcome (or even warmer/more zonal) is also a distinct possibility, and that we shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss it. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: And that could absolutely hold true this winter. Again, all I’m saying is a 2007/08 type outcome (or even warmer/more zonal) is also a distinct possibility, and that we shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss it. 1999-2000 sticks in my mind as more of a worse case scenario. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 The rain monster in the North Cascades seems to be loving this most recent forecast. 2 2 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 41 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Very interesting maps. You’ll rarely see enough amplification over the course of three months on a map like that though. There was plenty of time in 07/08 when the ridge amplified enough that we normally would have seen the goodies. If that Winter had been 2 degrees cooler Seattle would have seen like 20 inches of snow and outlying areas would have seen 30-40”. Was great above 1000 feet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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