snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 The ECMWF is all in for the double bottom cold shot. It's going to be noticeably chilly next week. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 5 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: Been there. I actually don’t know my password now. I just never sign out. Ditto. My password remembers me. Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Yikes Indeed. As I've mentioned before major flooding on the Skagit is like a crystal ball foretelling major cold waves coming. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Just now, LowerGarfield said: Ditto. My password remembers me. Until you get a new phone or computer! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Normal rain storm. For some people. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 Just a bit of amplitude on that block. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 I think I know the reason for the Skagit River floods being so likely to lead to major cold. For that river to flood big time the trajectory has to be almost westerly. SW flow AR events don't do it for that river. It didn't even flood that bad in 1933. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 Let’s see if that trough bails like it does on the CMC and GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Let’s see if that trough bails like it does on the CMC and GFS It might, but it's all unfolding beautifully for the big picture. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Wiz you are in rare form tonight. 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Indeed. As I've mentioned before major flooding on the Skagit is like a crystal ball foretelling major cold waves coming. Recently... there was significant flooding on the Skagit in November of 2014, 2015, and 2017. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Not bad! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Day 7 That's an improvement 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not for the interior. I don't live there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, North_County said: For some people. I don't live there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 For some reason the radar is massively understating the rain going on here. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Next week is still looking pretty chilly. Decent warning shot next weekend 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Just now, GHweatherChris said: I don't live there. You are kind of having tunnel vision for the region as a whole though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Day 7.5 Chilly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: For some reason the radar is massively understating the rain going on here. Warm front coming through now... its a wind swept heavy mist here. Temp has shot up to 59 in North Bend in the last hour. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Finally! Was waiting for decent 850s... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Day 8 Bummer the pattern is so progressive or else we would have seen a heck of a mid-November cold shot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I wouldn't rule out a wind event/storm. That is a very strong, sharp cold front with deepening wave/developing surface low. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 850s drop to -8 on this ECMWF run. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Chilly, and VERY cold for @Kayla 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I think there's too much baroclinicity for that to happen. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 Bummer the pattern is so progressive or else we would have seen a heck of a mid-November cold shot. For now just a quicky will suffice for me. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Some really cold (sub -10) ensemble members showing up on the GEFS now. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 That's an improvement C C Coooooold B B B Brrrritish Columbia 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You are kind of having tunnel vision for the region as a whole though. Nope, I live where I live, no tunnels near me at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er 1 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 The troughier 00Z ECMWF solution prevents another AR event that the 12Z showed for late next weekend. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Wow! The ECMWF shows Arlington already down to 21 at 6z on day 8. 2 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 4am a week from Monday 3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Good run. Never doubt the power of the MBG! Good things ahead. MBG 6z GFS in 2 hours 41 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: For now just a quicky will suffice for me. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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