TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Pressure down to 998.6mb. Have had several gusts +50mph. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, Phil said: Given some anomalous rossby wave packet w/ WPAC typhoon remnants involved, in tandem with steep orographic lifting, could it not actually happen? Maybe not quite to that extent, but I think it could theoretically get much worse than this under the right conditions. No, the NE Pacific is incapable of producing that much thermal/kinetic energy to drive up PWAT values that much. The record water temps off of our coast are maybe in the low to mid 60s. The GOM easily gets into the mid 80s in a warm year. The West Coast could probably support 24 hour precip totals of 15-20" in our most orographically favored areas in an extreme event. We're not going to see 60" of rain from a storm. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 40 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Sky is looking ominous here…pressure rise still hasn’t begun yet pressure is still falling here. Noticed that as well…worst winds to come 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GFS shows over 8 inches at SEA in the next 2 weeks... would give 2006 a run for its money. If that were to verify this might end up the wettest month ever recorded in Seattle. No more drought for awhile. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Any updates on the landslides up in BC (near Agasizz)? 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 77k without power at the latest update 45k in king county mostly burien. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post North_County Posted November 15, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Guys, it's really not great here right now. A couple more steps and I'll be evacuating to the second floor. Hating this. 13 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, North_County said: Guys, it's really not great here right now. A couple more steps and I'll be evacuating to the second floor. Hating this. That’s really scary stuff. Is that your car? 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, North_County said: Guys, it's really not great here right now. A couple more steps and I'll be evacuating to the second floor. Hating this. Stay safe, man. Keep us updated if you can and don't hesitate to let us know if there's anything we can do to help. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: That’s really scary stuff. Is that your car? Was my car. Lol. Actually, it was toast already, and ive just been putting off getting it scrapped, so yeah. Not particularly worried about that one. I tried to move it last night, and it wouldnt start, so..... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Noticed that as well…worst winds to come Pressure is 997.8 now…going to be a significant rise in pressure behind the cold front wouldn’t be surprised if the winds are stronger than expected. Have some portable batteries ready. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, North_County said: Was my car. Lol. Actually, it was toast already, and ive just been putting off getting it scrapped, so yeah. Not particularly worried about that one. I tried to move it last night, and it wouldnt start, so..... That’s still really sad to see. Hopefully the flooding starts to recede soon. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 12Z ECMWF much better later next week than the GFS. At least for those who don't want another 8 inches of rain. 5 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: No, the NE Pacific is incapable of producing that much thermal/kinetic energy to drive up PWAT values that much. The record water temps off of our coast are maybe in the low to mid 60s. The GOM easily gets into the mid 80s in a warm year. The West Coast could probably support 24 hour precip totals of 15-20" in our most orographically favored areas in an extreme event. We're not going to see 60" of rain from a storm. FWIW those GOA/NPAC waters were likely warm enough to make for an exothermic situation during the Holocene thermal maximum, averaged annually. I’ll bet there were some crazy ARs up there while the Pyramids of Giza were being built. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF much better later next week than the GFS. At least for those who don't want another 8 inches of rain. 2-3 weeks of 2007-08 or 1998-99 style cold NW flow would be the ideal pattern right now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, North_County said: Guys, it's really not great here right now. A couple more steps and I'll be evacuating to the second floor. Hating this. Bro that sucks. Maybe start moving valuables and non-perishable food items upstairs? Hoping for the best. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, North_County said: Guys, it's really not great here right now. A couple more steps and I'll be evacuating to the second floor. Hating this. That is awful. Hope that recedes fast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Pressure is 997.8 now…going to be a significant rise in pressure behind the cold front wouldn’t be surprised if the winds are stronger than expected. Have some portable batteries ready. Yeah the pressure surge can aid vertical momentum transfer. Stay safe! 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Bro that sucks. Maybe start moving valuables and non-perishable food items upstairs? Hoping for the best. Never can have too much water right Phil? 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 city of Merritt has been evacuated. https://www.google.ca/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/8374617/merritt-bc-evacuation-flooding/amp/ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: 2-3 weeks of 2007-08 or 1998-99 style cold NW flow would be the ideal pattern right now. More ideal than a cross polar flow pattern like November 2010 or December 2008? 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Yeah the pressure surge can aid vertical momentum transfer. Stay safe! Not much wind in this area yet, but judging by northerly reports we may not be out of the woods quite yet. If I'm to be correct it's the pressure rises guiding the strong gusts, no? 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Nightmare scenario unfolding on the EURO. We need snowpack. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 It's here, just had a huge blast of wind hit. 1 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Pressure down to 994.6 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, North_County said: Guys, it's really not great here right now. A couple more steps and I'll be evacuating to the second floor. Hating this. Oh my god. Wow.... Do whatever you have to do to make sure you and others are safe above all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Nightmare scenario unfolding on the EURO. We need snowpack. Troll. Snowpack needs to be solid by spring. November is not an issue. We have other actual nightmare situations to deal with right now that are more urgent. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: More ideal than a cross polar flow pattern like November 2010 or December 2008? I mean reasonably achievable patterns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Troll. Snowpack needs to be solid by spring. November is not an issue. We have other nightmare situations to deal with right now that are more urgent. little baileys in your coffee this morning?? Pulling no punches i kinda like it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: No, the NE Pacific is incapable of producing that much thermal/kinetic energy to drive up PWAT values that much. The record water temps off of our coast are maybe in the low to mid 60s. The GOM easily gets into the mid 80s in a warm year. The West Coast could probably support 24 hour precip totals of 15-20" in our most orographically favored areas in an extreme event. We're not going to see 60" of rain from a storm. The daily rainfall record for BC is 19.25” on the west side of Vancouver island. Ucluelet Brynnor Mine 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Never can have too much water right Phil? Well, the trees are probably happy. Humans maybe less so. Depends where you live, right? My location never floods, minus those brief rapids that carry trash cans down the street. Even 7.5” in < 2 hrs on already-saturated soil didn’t do it. A few miles away it was ugly, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Requiem said: Not much wind in this area yet, but judging by northerly reports we may not be out of the woods quite yet. If I'm to be correct it's the pressure rises guiding the strong gusts, no? Loud roaring gusts here now at times. Strongest winds likely to be east of I-5 I think. I wonder how windy it may get. 130kt jet support, strong cold front, sharp pressure rises, and a warm air mass. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Looks like you can also see it on the regular radar loop 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: little baileys in your coffee this morning?? Pulling no punches i kinda like it Just not the time to be talking about "nightmare scenarios" involving something long term like snowpack... given what is happening right now. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Yeah... its out here now. Sort of strange since we don't really have any flooding and the wind is not that strong. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Just not the time to be talking about "nightmare scenarios" involving something long term like snowpack... given what is happening right now. A big west coast ridge will not help our long term drought situation. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: A big west coast ridge will not help our long term drought situation. Oh well. It will help flood recovery. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.