PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have already had my first cup of coffee... and I fired the shot at myself.  

That you did! 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS loop... as Andrew mentioned last night it appears that second half of November might be drier than normal.    On the precip anomaly map you can see the remnants of the current AR skewing the entire 15-day anomaly in NW WA and SW BC.

 

[LowerGarfield]

53F and overcast here.

[Chewbacca Defense]

up to .99" since midnight and winds have picked up.  Schools are closed up here, Iowa Street is flooded, and looks like a tree fell over the freeway last night.  Power is out up in Sumas, which isn't good for anyone trying to run a sump pump. 

 

A quick perusal of FB and some folks in the Nooksack area are starting to move pets and valuables upstairs.

 

Bad thing with this one is that Whatcom County has had a huge influx of people who have moved to the area, and are not really aware of the potential for damage.   I have seen more than a few "does this happen very often" posts on the various community FB pages.

 

And in the time it took me to type this we have ticked over to 1.00", 5.07" since Saturday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS loop... as Andrew mentioned last night it appears that second half of November might be drier than normal.    On the precip anomaly map you can see the remnants of the current AR skewing the entire 15-day anomaly in NW WA and SW BC.

 

Joshua is going to reappear with a vengeance here in a few days. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I had to look up pedantic... I think I have the same syndrome.   

Pedantic is an insulting word used to describe someone who annoys others by correcting small errors, caring too much about minor details, or emphasizing their own expertise especially in some narrow or boring subject matter.

The awakening is happening!! I also have that syndrome. 

[North_County]

My back deck doesn't normally come with a lakefront view.

[TT-SEA]

Cloud bases are higher this morning... you can see a little of Mt Rainier between the hills on the Issaquah cam.   That is such a fortunate location because you really can't see Mt. Rainier once you get east of Bellevue because there are too many hills in the way.   But from Lake Sammamish Parkway there is a gap in the hills that perfectly frames Mt. Rainier.  

[MossMan]

Very windy here, I’m shocked we still have power. 
.02” so far on the day, 53 degrees. I just got a text from Mt Vernon schools saying they are open and operating as normal. However our small private school our kids go to that usually follows Mt Vernon SD lead has closed since several of the teachers live in the flood effected areas. Stay safe everyone! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

6 minutes ago, North_County said:

My back deck doesn't normally come with a lakefront view.

D**n, stay safe!  Do you have power where you are at?

[LowerGarfield]

High Wind Warning for a good portion of EWA /N. ID issued by NWS Spokane.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks to me that there has been a subtle shift south in the AR in the last hour

[North_County]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

D**n, stay safe!  Do you have power where you are at?

No. Power went out around 6am. I've got the generator going for now to keep the house warm. I'll have to abandon that if the water gets too high. Or when I run out of fuel, because I have no way of getting to a gas station at this point.

[Blizzard777]

12 minutes ago, North_County said:

My back deck doesn't normally come with a lakefront view.

Ouch!   Stay vigilant keep safe 

[Skagit Weather]

Wind gusting to 40 mph here and rain has returned after being in the shadow for most of the night. 0.13" on the day.

[Blizzard777]

Wind is steadily increasing here

59* 

[Cloud]

 

[MossMan]

Just the beginning most likely. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Like @Jginmartini said strongest winds so far from the event were 1-3am in the ~45mph range but it’s picking up again. Looking at the radar the AR looks like it’s getting ready to swing through. 

[Brennan]

Rain still coming down as hard as I’ve seen sustained rain come down here, ever. Water is everywhere. Winds are gusting to 40.

[TT-SEA]

HRRR says the entire front has cleared the western WA lowlands already by 1 p.m.

[Cloud]

Hope with almost 7” of rain yesterday.  

 

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just the beginning most likely. 

Yeah this morning will be the peak almost everywhere but I’d imagine if that doesn’t knock out your power the burst through the strait will do it. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

HRRR says the entire front has cleared the western WA lowlands already by 1 p.m.

In the meantime, the strong winds and rain is still coming in. Then a pretty impressive cooldown.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Rain still coming down as hard as I’ve seen sustained rain come down here, ever. Water is everywhere. Winds are gusting to 40.

Stay save brother. 

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like the Skagit River has crested in Concrete at 38.5 ft which puts it about 12th in the last hundred years or so. They're still predicting record flooding in Mount Vernon, but I don't see how that's possible with the lower crest in Concrete. I'd imagine the crest will get revised down another couple of feet.

[Cloud]

Trajectory of the AR have changed as it’s passing through. This will get areas in the central sound wet and windy before it’s finally out. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looks like the Skagit River has crested in Concrete at 38.5 ft which puts it about 12th in the last hundred years or so. They're still predicting record flooding in Mount Vernon, but I don't see how that's possible with the lower crest in Concrete. I'd imagine the crest will get revised down another couple of feet.

Atleast the forecasted levels seem like they’ll come in a bit lower than expected for now that’s good news. 

[Cloud]

Peak wind is now until 10am and then diminishing by 1pm. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

HRRR says the entire front has cleared the western WA lowlands already by 1 p.m.

Oops. I thought it said 1 am.

[Cloud]

SEA just had a gust of 46mph. Strongest one yet.

[MossMan]

Don’t forget today is “take your chainsaw to work” day! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rain has been coming down in buckets here on the North Shore for hours on end, and now it is starting to get windy. No rain gauge here, so I have no idea how much has fallen, but I would have to guess it is in the 4 to 8 inch range.

Most of the major highways in BC are now closed due to slides, flooding, or both.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Rain has been coming down in buckets here on the North Shore for hours on end, and now it is starting to get windy. No rain gauge here, so I have no idea how much has fallen, but I would have to guess it is in the 4 to 8 inch range.

Most of the major highways in BC are now closed due to slides, flooding, or both.

I go to the Vancouver Sun to see news about the flooding and their big headline this morning is about COVID.  

[ShawniganLake]

2.15” since midnight here. 6.25” total. A historic rainstorm for BC

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I go to the Vancouver Sun to see news about the flooding and their big headline this morning is about COVID.  

Pretty pathetic of them. Try https://drivebc.ca/ and go to the conditions and events tab. Literally dozens of high-impact closure notices in red.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Pretty pathetic of them. Try https://drivebc.ca/ and go to the conditions and events tab. Literally dozens of high-impact closure notices in red.

I am busy reading the top of the news of the day up there... Vancouver is going to have the first electric fire truck!     Way bigger news than some rain falling.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I go to the Vancouver Sun to see news about the flooding and their big headline this morning is about COVID.  

Of course it is. So tired of every news outlet shoving this down our throat.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That front has some horsepower.

[Blizzard777]

38 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Rain still coming down as hard as I’ve seen sustained rain come down here, ever. Water is everywhere. Winds are gusting to 40.

The AR is truly amazing to be underneath and witness its powerful rain rates! When it relentless like this we find out how fragile our surrounding are and how powerless we are against such a force!  Those tropical raindrops are HUGE!