PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I could never do the HOA thing, too many times it turns into a few power trippy people going nuts that your car is not parked straight enough or you haven’t deadheaded your Rhododendron quickly enough, etc. 

We have a pretty mellow HOA where I live.  I was actually on the board for several years.  Our board doesn't have a lot of teeth to get crazy, which was good, but we had enough to deal with the most blatant issues. 

 

I would go nuts in one of *those* HOA's.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s not going anywhere in the next 12-16 hours. Parts of the Fraser valley are going to be devastated 

Yeah... running the hourly loop it appears that the heavy rain will continue up there until around noon tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Skagit River near Concrete has now reached major flood stage.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Skagit River near Concrete has now reached major flood stage.

This is going to be a really bad situation. I hope people take the evacuation recommendations seriously. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That map runs from 10 p.m. today through 10 p.m. tomorrow... so it already eliminates the rain that has fallen since 4 p.m.     It shows the remaining rain for this event starting now.

ah...gotcha.....  So if that pans out, I'll be at around 5" for this event.  Just nuts.....

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s not going anywhere in the next 12-16 hours. Parts of the Fraser valley are going to be devastated 

Yeah it’s not looking good. Doesn’t seem like it’s gonna move. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

This is going to be a really bad situation. I hope people take the evacuation recommendations seriously. 

Yeah it is, and I really hope they do take it very seriously.

[ShawniganLake]

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF still shows some lowland snow before the precip cuts off.  Looks like Arlington is the sweet spot.  If it's right they get several inches of snow and then drop into the low 20s Tuesday night.  All in all it's remarkable how much colder the ECMWF is than the GFS for tomorrow night and Tuesday night both.

[TT-SEA]

It appears that the Snoqualmie River has already peaked and is coming down now... the front moves through too fast tomorrow to cause additional issues.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah it’s not looking good. Doesn’t seem like it’s gonna move. 

We could be looking at massive devastation along the Skagit.  Too bad this thing got hung up there for so long.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

That sounds horrible if anyone is trapped under the landslides. Good lord.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

49 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Good analysis. I wonder what the ensembles may reveal.

00z ECMWF in 12 minutes

It won't matter.  Tomorrow hour 384 will show a totally different day.  No consistency at all.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[snow_wizard]

The latest forecast for Mount Vernon is dire.  13 feet above flood stage and way above the previous record.

[North_County]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The latest forecast for Mount Vernon is dire.  13 feet above flood stage and way above the previous record.

That sounds awful. I've always felt that there were areas of that town that looked like MAJOR flood risks when driving through. Especially the old town area.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF at day 10 is like a train wreck.  Massive blocking and no sign of anything resembling a PV.

EDIT:  Oops.  Somehow I was looking at the 12z.

[SouthHillFrosty]

18 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

We have a pretty mellow HOA where I live.  I was actually on the board for several years.  Our board doesn't have a lot of teeth to get crazy, which was good, but we had enough to deal with the most blatant issues. 

 

I would go nuts in one of *those* HOA's.

 

 

If I buy a house in a hoa, my sole mission would be to destroy and disband the hoa

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 C'mon block!

[ShawniganLake]

Euro shows some wet snow up here on Thursday evening  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Deweydog]

33 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

12/25/1980 my man.

Freak event.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

UPDATE

Skagit River near Concrete new forecast crest over 41'

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Ugly, ugly, ugly.

[ShawniganLake]

30 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That sounds horrible if anyone is trapped under the landslides. Good lord.

There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area.  Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. 
 

“There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.”

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area.  Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. 
 

“There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.”

That’s horrible. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area.  Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. 
 

“There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.”

I can't even imagine any of this. It is like a movie. No words. Just shaking my head really.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area.  Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. 
 

“There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.”

Oh my god

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area.  Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. 
 

“There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.”

What a nightmare.   Where is this exactly?

[North_County]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What a nightmare.   Where is this exactly?

From what I've seen on social media, I believe it's near Agassiz, BC.

And yes, it sounds horrific.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What a nightmare.   Where is this exactly?

Hwy 7. 5 miles east of Agassiz 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, North_County said:

From what I've seen on social media, I believe it's near Agassiz, BC.

That sounds so scary and considering it’s going to rain a lot more the next 12 hours makes that a very terrifying situation. 

[Meatyorologist]

Yeah nobody should be driving near mountains or rivers up there, unless it involves evacuating.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

18 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area.  Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. 
 

“There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.”

That is awful.  Sounds like the Wellington disaster that killed 96 people not far from here.  It was snow, a train trapped between 2 avalanches and it eventually got swept away by another one.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/1910-stevens-pass-avalanche-still-deadliest-in-us-history/

[Skagit Weather]

Just passed 1" on the day. Probably will end up being my only 1"+ day out of this storm despite getting almost 4" in the past 5 days.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That is awful.  Sounds like the Wellington disaster that killed 96 people not far from here.  It was snow, a train trapped between 2 avalanches and it eventually got swept away by another one.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/1910-stevens-pass-avalanche-still-deadliest-in-us-history/

Wow... thunder kicked off a massive avalanche.     

[Meatyorologist]

It was bound to happen. As hard as it is to imagine, this AR is overperforming where it is stalling.