PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

Something big is going to happen. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Just passed 1" on the day. Probably will end up being my only 1"+ day out of this storm despite getting almost 4" in the past 5 days.

Wow! Still only .09” here. 

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That sounds so scary and considering it’s going to rain a lot more the next 12 hours makes that a very terrifying situation. 

If I was stuck between those slide I would walk out and just leave my car.  I have a feeling this is only the beginning of what will be a horrible couple of days up there.  We can only imagine what's going to happen with the Skagit situation.

[Skagit Weather]

This is about the most ominous tweet I've ever read from the National Weather Service.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

This Skagit River flood will probably come in below the flooding that happened in Oregon in 1861, but it might be the worst thing since.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Something big is going to happen. 

I see it too my friend!

12z GFS in 8 hours 10 minutes

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 20 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

This is about the most ominous tweet I've ever read from the National Weather Service.

 

 

A possible catastrophe unfolding. Oh, and Benjamin is one of my admins! He is awesome at documenting and recording severe or extreme weather events.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Something big is going to happen. 

Yeah.  Flooding.

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If I was stuck between those slide I would walk out and just leave my car.  I have a feeling this is only the beginning of what will be a horrible couple of days up there.  We can only imagine what's going to happen with the Skagit situation.

Yeah I agree. I wouldn’t sit in my car and wait for the hillside to give way. If there is any way I can get away from the cliff faces or anything I’d be doing it. But I’m not there they might not have anywhere to go. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Something big is going to happen. 

The 00Z run is not much different than the 12Z run in the long range.    

[snow_wizard]

They've upped the ante on the Stillaguamish also.  The latest has it getting close to major.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I agree. I wouldn’t sit in my car and wait for the hillside to give way. If there is any way I can get away from the cliff faces or anything I’d be doing it. But I’m not there they might not have anywhere to go. 

Exactly what I was thinking.  In most situations there would be an out, but not all situations.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This Skagit River flood will probably come in below the flooding that happened in Oregon in 1861, but it might be the worst thing since.

The Vanport flood in 1948 was pretty disastrous. Destroyed the entire town. As much an engineering/civic failure as a weather related one, though.

Then of course there's the 1903 Heppner flood if we're looking at the entire region. That was the deadliest weather event in the PNW prior to this year's heatwave.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z run is not much different than the 12Z run in the long range.    

I just like all of the blocking features and the scrambled / shattered PV.  I really think Phil is missing the boat on this.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

The Vanport flood in 1948 was pretty disastrous. Destroyed the entire town. As much of an engineering/civic failure as a weather related one, though.

Then of course there's the 1903 Heppner flood if we're looking at the entire region. That was the deadliest weather event in the PNW prior to this year's heatwave.

Yeah...the 1948 flood was pretty epic.  I've read about that.  It was a real oddball in that it was a spring flood.  I'll have to read up on the 1903 event.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just like all of the blocking features and the scrambled / shattered PV.  I really think Phil is missing the boat on this.

The PV is pretty healthy and appears to stay that way for the foreseeable future.

[snow_wizard]

Just looked at the Heppner flood.  All I can say is holy sheit!  The history of the NW is just full of horrible meteorological disasters.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The PV is pretty healthy and appears to stay that way for the foreseeable future.

I disagree and so does the AO.  What's there is pretty chopped up.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...the 1948 flood was pretty epic.  I've read about that.  It was a real oddball in that it was a spring flood.  I'll have to read up on the 1903 event.

It was a flash flood (1903).

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I disagree and so does the AO.  What's there is pretty chopped up.

At the 10mb level it’s pretty stout. At 500mb, the Baffin vortex hasn’t had much luck getting itself going, although it’s a little early for that.

[GHweatherChris]

Prayers to those up north, this is not a good situation right now.  For anyone focused on the weather models 10 days out right now, shame on you.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

 

Sounds massive like the Oso slide, unfortunately. Going to be difficult to do much until daylight resumes and the rain stops.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM 3km quite a bit stronger with forecast sustained winds than 00z.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

57 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hwy 7. 5 miles east of Agassiz 

And Hwy 1 was buried by a debris flow just west of Hope earlier today, so this would mean both routes east through the Fraser Valley are now cut.

[ShawniganLake]

Up to 4.1” storm total now. The Agassiz to Hope area is in the 6-8” range. 

[BLI snowman]

Over 3" of rain at BLI on the day Sunday. Only the 3rd calendar day to do so there. Record is 3.30".

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Prayers to those up north, this is not a good situation right now.  For anyone focused on the weather models 10 days out right now, shame on you.

Sarcasm? Maybe. I mean, I get it, but what can any of us do about it. It is a helpless situation.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Sarcasm? Maybe. I mean, I get it, but what can any of us do about it. It is a helpless situation.

No sarcasm, reality. 

[Deweydog]

Weather talk has no place on a weather forum as long as bad things continue to happen to humans because of the weather. Truth.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Ended up with 3.12” which takes the 2 day total to 4.07”. Rainfall rates dropped off most of the 11pm hour but picked up the last 10 minutes before midnight.  
 

[GHweatherChris]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Weather talk has no place on a weather forum as long as bad things continue to happen to humans because of the weather. Truth.

I want a winter blast of epic proportions with tons of snow and historic cold every year, but that is not important currently.

[Skagit Weather]

Picked up 1.07" yesterday and I'm at 5.85" on the month now. I was looking back at my records and had forgotten how wet November and December of 2015 were up here. I had more than 9" in November and over 8" in December. Even though we're only halfway through the month I would be surprised to pick up another 3.5" to put this ahead of 2015, but I guess it's possible.

[Gradient Keeper]

16 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

No sarcasm, reality. 

It's hard to tell on this forum.

6z GFS in 1 hour 9 minutes

[North_County]

Looks like Hope ended at 205mm for the day, or just over 8 inches. That's.....just incredible.

Abbotsford recorded 100mm, or just under 4 inches. I'm going to asssume that's pretty much where I came in at, in the absence of my own personal station.

[Gradient Keeper]

12:42 AM Radar Update

I wish I had better news. The moderate to very heavy rainfall continues with no end in sight.

[Gradient Keeper]

UPDATE - South Fork Nooksack River at Saxon Bridge has now reached major flood stage.

[Skagit Weather]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

UPDATE - South Fork Nooksack River at Saxon Bridge has now reached major flood stage.

If the records on this site are correct, then I believe the Nooksack River should set a record high in the next few hours (forecast looks underdone).

The description of the flood impacts does not sound good: 

The Nooksack River will cause major near record flooding downstream through Lynden. Deep and swift flood waters will inundate farm lands...roads...and residential areas. The flood may overtop levees. In addition...flood waters could overflow and flood the Sumas drainage. Flooding will occur all along the river including headwaters...tributaries...and other streams within and near the Nooksack River Basin.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52F and mostly cloudy.