Madtown Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Anyone concerned on that first week of feb and a torch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Madtown said: Anyone concerned on that first week of feb and a torch? GFS keeps showing that and therefore a rainer for most of us. However it has been showing a second system on the heels of the first one and the second one has more cold to work with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Madtown said: Anyone concerned on that first week of feb and a torch? Transient for the 1st few days across the eastern Sub while the North and West members see the cold bleed south post 2nd of Feb. IMO, how I see it for the first few days of Feb is sorta what we saw in early DEC which sent a lead wave across the Upper MW/N GL's and pushed warmth up into the lower lakes/MW followed by a secondary piece that will ride up the frontal boundary around the 4th/5th. It'll be quite active following these first few days for our region. I'm actually pretty confident about an AN snow month for a lot of us around the GL's/MW next month. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Oh my, what an astounding flip in the North American 500mb pattern in the Week 2 period off tonight's 0z EPS. I mean, come on...you go from a stout -PNA/SER signal to now showing a lot more trough??? Crazy volatility. I suspect it's having major issues with the MJO. While the data rolls in, I'm curious to see what the new MJO run will look like. The JMA has been rock steady sending it into Phase 2/3 and going in all alone on this idea while every other model sending the MJO into the warm Phases of 4/5. Check out the difference from just 24 hours ago... vs....I'm also paying attn to the models bias in the NE PAC where it is now seeing a -EPO signal (aka West Coast Ridge). The next big ticket system of significance has been showing up on all the models as open up FEB. Looks like Ground Hog Day will be effected. This should produce a Big Dog and I expect some shifts in the coming days. The latest 0z EPS is sniffing it out...GL's cutter in the works... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 This is just wild to see such differences and will add more questions as to what the EPS is smoking? 24 hours ago... Current run... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 hours ago, Tom said: This is just wild to see such differences and will add more questions as to what the EPS is smoking? 24 hours ago... Current run... Call me concerned. just booked a 500mi snowmobile touring trip Feb 14th to 17th. Please no meltdowns! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 39 minutes ago, Madtown said: Call me concerned. just booked a 500mi snowmobile touring trip Feb 14th to 17th. Please no meltdowns! I wouldn’t worry about any meltdowns up north next month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 hours ago, Tom said: This is just wild to see such differences and will add more questions as to what the EPS is smoking? 24 hours ago... Current run... Nebraska peeps are going to cook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 There was 2.2" of new snow fall yesterday. Overnight just a trace of new snow fell. There is now 6.2" of snow on the ground here. The overnight low and current temperature is 15. That looks to be the official overnight low at GRR as well. Back in both 1967 and again in 1978 late tonight (January 25) was the start of the two biggest Blizzards in my lifetime. Not only were the dates the same but both years the day of the week was the same (Wednesday) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Had a little wave come through here overnight and dropped between 1/2-1" of snow. Not forecasted. Nice surprise. Next week, NWS Hastings is hinting at a more active pattern in this area. Late in the extended periods...there are some hints for a chance for more widespread precip starting next Tuesday afternoon...with several ensemble forecast members hinting at the possibility of some accumulating snowfall around the 2nd or 3rd of the month as a large trough of low pressure digs across the west coast. Still a ways out, but something to keep an eye on beyond today system. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 All models have significant storm/s? on Feb2/3rd. Lots of energy. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. As of now it looks like anywhere from rain to snow, heavy Rainer, or significant snow here. Still a week out. Wouldn't mind a brief warmup so I can clear my driveway of ice! No January thaw this year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Yup looking pretty active after this week. Currently -11. Might make a run at -20 air temp tonight. Pretty good snowpack over here with several inches. Only gonna make it to 0 today so we'll have a really good start once the sun goes down. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Next week's system will be a nail biter, that's for sure. It is still a week away, so we will see what happens, but overall, considering this is a very potent system, models like to paint this into a soaker for some. Tons of GOM moisture w/ this one. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 JACKPOT TODAY is in eastern CO and western KS. Somebody could see 10-12 inches out that way. A nearly stationary band of 2"+ snowfall rates are currently over Goodland, KS and southward. If only that could happen in KC. Come on big February!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Here is where Grand Rapids is at so far this January and winter season. For January as of yesterday AM January total snow fall 23.8". Average for January 1 to the 24th is 17.6" that is +6.2" for this time in January. For meteorological winter the total snow fall as of yesterday AM is 38.4" that is a departure of -4.5" and for the season so far Grand Rapids has recorded 43.6" that is a departure of -2.2". There has been at least 1" of snow on the ground now for 29 days (today will be 30) and at this time it looks very good that that snow will be on the ground for all of January. The last time there was snow on the ground every day in January was in 2014. The mean for this month is now at 25.1 that is a departure of -3.6. The high so far has been 42 and the lowest so far has been +1. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Despite the call for at least 1 or 2 storms to hit the KC area before the end of the month, the snow hole of most of Nebraska and eastern KS into MO will continue on into February. In fact, it's going to be a pretty boring, dry pattern for most the last week of January. KC 7 day forecast Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 24. North wind around 9 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 10. North wind 5 to 8 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 33. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. South southwest wind around 7 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. Friday Sunny, with a high near 37. Friday Night Clear, with a low around 20. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 46. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 31. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 47. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Gotta love those Canucks -- tomorrow morning 6am temps---- 1 1 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Yuck 12z GFS has ice storm for KC. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Long ways out, but this may be the next time frame to keep an eye on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Long ways out, but this may be the next time frame to keep an eye on. It's been consistently showing up on the models. Seems like something is brewing for then. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post snowstorm83 Posted January 25, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 year ago today: 2nd biggest snowstorm on record in Lincoln with 14.8 inches. Growing up in the south, I never experienced anything anything even close to this. I was in winter lover hog heaven. What a difference a year makes! 9 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 33 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Gotta love those Canucks -- tomorrow morning 6am temps---- Idk what official record lows are but local met on radio said we could get close tomorrow morning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 19 hours ago, Tom said: How much have you received over the past few days? S WI did pretty good from what I saw. We did pretty good, probably 3-5 Sunday morning then 2-4 Monday morning. I missed Sunday though, usually they groom everything for the weekend crowd and I was out of town for my sister's birthday. It is really good, light, powdery stuff, excellent for snowboarding and skiing, but after it's groomed it ends up being absolutely nothing, that 5-8 inches probably groomed out to less than an inch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Latest GFS is a thing of beauty. Cold air gets into the pattern and the storms start flying. Big February here we come!! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: Latest GFS is a thing of beauty. Cold air gets into the pattern and the storms start flying. Big February here we come!! A little late but won't be denied...I sure as heck hope we can score some "share the wealth" systems next month... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: Latest GFS is a thing of beauty. Cold air gets into the pattern and the storms start flying. Big February here we come!! Pattern is certainly there. There is going to be some big winners, and big losers to start out February. Consistency among the models is there a week out as well. Very similar. Big storm/s incoming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Pattern is certainly there. There is going to be some big winners, and big losers to start out February. Consistency among the models is there a week out as well. Very similar. Big storm/s incoming. 12z GEFS have a much different look than just 12 hours ago...on top of that the cold is pressing...it's interesting bc I noticed today's MJO run has some ensembles hinting towards colder phases instead of going straight beeline into the warm phases from previous runs. The CFSv2 goes straight to Phase 3... The JMA has been rock steady into Phase 2/3... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 12z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 February MJO Composites... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GEFS... Some of those look good for mby and some big hitters! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Clinton said: Some of those look good for mby and some big hitters! I gotta feeling we will have a long week of model watching...been a while, right? 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Cold and active GFS! Wow. Nice to see. That's an awesome 1, 2 punch system(s) next week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Tom said: I gotta feeling we will have a long week of model watching...been a while, right? Sure has. GEFS looks great. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 There is a place in Western Kansas, Sharon Springs, that is just getting drilled with heavy snow. If you look at the radar, a heavy band is basically just sitting over this town and not moving for hours. Will be interesting to see the final total. I saw that NWS Goodland said in this band was 2" an hour rates. Don't see this much in the Central US. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 58 minutes ago, Tom said: I gotta feeling we will have a long week of model watching...been a while, right? Love when this board gets rolling. Im hoping the entire sub can cash in on something next week, and that we can get the cold air to lock in. 3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Cmon Euro. Now you're just trolling me. Perfect stripe of nothing right in between 2 large areas of snow. LOL 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Cmon Euro. Now you're just trolling me. Perfect stripe of nothing right in between 2 large areas of snow. LOL SE Nebraska sitting in a pretty good spot 7 days out. Never a good sign. Trying to think positive this time around but have seen this one to many times. always looks too dang good from this far out 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: There is a place in Western Kansas, Sharon Springs, that is just getting drilled with heavy snow. If you look at the radar, a heavy band is basically just sitting over this town and not moving for hours. Will be interesting to see the final total. I saw that NWS Goodland said in this band was 2" an hour rates. Don't see this much in the Central US. There are spotter reports of over 20 inches. I've never measured 12 inches in my life. Meanwhile, a piddly, barely-noticeable system dropping south through the plains drops 20 inches. 5 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2022 Report Share Posted January 25, 2022 Anyone heading out on the EC this weekend??!! Well, if ya wanna experience a true blizzard, now is your chance. Latest Euro Clobbers the entire I-95 with 18-24”+ of snow for this weekend. 2 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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