PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just what we need... some 50+ degree rain.   

Well atleast it’s been pretty dry overall the last week. Just 0.33” of rain since 1/13…with nothing coming for another week. You got hit by a c-zone at some point though IIRC. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Well atleast it’s been pretty dry overall the last week. Just 0.33” of rain since 1/13…with nothing coming for another week. You got hit by a c-zone at some point though IIRC. 

It wasn't all c-zone related... but we did up with around 2.5 inches of rain this past week.     No complaints here though with plenty of dry days mixed in.

[BLI snowman]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hard to predict... the low clouds between OLM and PDX look like its about to break up on the satellite loop and the sun is now coming out in Seattle.    But some places will probably get stuck in the fog for most of the day.

No holes here yet.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No holes here yet.

Looks like east wind is quickly pushing out the low clouds and fog out of the Portland area.

North wind is pushing it out around Seattle... which probably leaves the area east of Seattle and west of here sort of trapped in between.   Probably good for Jim.

[Blizzard777]

I can see some blue sky here in Tigard! 
43* Tigard ( grandson has a weather machine now at least for basics).

38* Federal away

[Deweydog]

Stratus is getting dangerously thin here in DT Vancouver. Will advise.

[TT-SEA]

Surprisingly quick clearing in Seattle... thought that might be the last place to clear out today.

 

[rsktkr]

I've never seen temps bottom out off the chart before.

[Omegaraptor]

72 in Brookings, RH 15%

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

72 in Brookings

Wish I was there. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

I've never seen temps bottom out off the chart before.

That range is pretty funky. We’ve verified 850mb’s below -20c several times in the past, but +25c is pretty much impossible in January.

[RentonHill]

meh. next

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well at least its a nice day.

[RentonHill]

[snow_wizard]

The EPS isn't backing down at all.

Meanwhile it's still only 33 here today.  Color me impressed.

[Deweydog]

At least the CFS is still rock solid!

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I don’t think 1950 is into you, Jim.

I was simply stating the ECMWF is showing the 500mb positive anom center in the mean position it occupied in Jan 1950.  True statement.  

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

At least the CFS is still rock solid!

The EPS is fine also.

[Fircrest]

41 and cloudy here just south of the beautiful Fircrest Golf Club. And I don't even play golf.

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS isn't backing down at all.

Meanwhile it's still only 33 here today.  Color me impressed.

Been bouncing between 38 and 39 here…don’t think we will be below 40 here today. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

37 and foggyyyyyyyy

[snow_wizard]

I'm not really sure why there were people who thought this weekend would be sunny and in the 50s.  It's January with a ridge right on top of us.  Nearly impossible to pull off sunny / warm this time of year.

[snow_wizard]

I will say I'm getting a bit worried about the prospects for early Feb.  Even the EPS isn't quite as good as I thought when I looked at the teleconnections.  This could just be one of the typical hiccups we normally see as these things approach though.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Been bouncing between 38 and 39 here…don’t think we will be below 40 here today. 

The temp peaked at 32.9 a little bit ago and now it's 32.7.  This location overperforms incredibly for cold temps with this exact surface pressure gradient.  The gradient gets more of a southerly component for tomorrow which may favor places like North Bend mixing out, but actually makes a mix out even more unlikely south of Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not really sure why there were people who thought this weekend would be sunny and in the 50s.  It's January with a ridge right on top of us.  Nearly impossible to pull off sunny / warm this time of year.

It will be well into the 50s out here tomorrow.   

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I will say I'm getting a bit worried about the prospects for early Feb.  Even the EPS isn't quite as good as I thought when I looked at the teleconnections.  This could just be one of the typical hiccups we normally see as these things approach though.

There's really not much of anything indicating significant cold coming for us at this point.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

There's really not much of anything indicating significant cold coming for us at this point.

It's only a few runs where that has been true though.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I will say I'm getting a bit worried about the prospects for early Feb.  Even the EPS isn't quite as good as I thought when I looked at the teleconnections.  This could just be one of the typical hiccups we normally see as these things approach though.

EPS looks like it's going zonal after that trough around day 10.    I have been hesitant to get on board without Matt and now Phil calling for a return to a wet pattern.    Could be possible that it's not going to happen this February.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z EPS still had a good number of cold members.  Rather impressively the operational ECMWF showed this inversion remaining unbroken for a solid week now.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wish I was there. 

You’re getting soft in your old age 

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's only a few runs where that has been true though.

A few runs of every model as the timeframe moves progressively closer....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

44F and partly cloudy.

[TT-SEA]

Someone posted this pic on the North Bend Facebook page of sunrise this morning.   Not sure which peak this is... but there is snow in the foreground and Mt Rainier in the distance.  

[snow_wizard]

It was starting to get a bit brighter out there, but it just got darker again.  Currently 34, and it feels cold out there.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A few runs of every model as the timeframe moves progressively closer....

We'll see what happens the next few runs.  It would be surprising to not get another round this winter after scoring in December in a Nina winter.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see what happens the next few runs.  It would be surprising to not get another round this winter after scoring in December in a Nina winter.

I am sitting in the car waiting for my wife and daughter in a store in Factoria and the low clouds and fog have cleared here in the last 15 minutes. 

[jakerepp]

58 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

41 and cloudy here just south of the beautiful Fircrest Golf Club. And I don't even play golf.

I'll play for you.

[jakerepp]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It was starting to get a bit brighter out there, but it just got darker again.  Currently 34, and it feels cold out there.

10 degrees warmer here. Mostly sunny with some high clouds. 

[snow_wizard]

One possible reason the models have kind of lost the scent on this possible cold wave is they are changing on their thoughts for the MJO.  The GFS is now gravitating toward a Maritime Continent wave which could mean delayed but not denied.  Still a lot to be sorted out.

One good thing about the MJO moving to the MC is it would make a transition to El Nino less likely.