PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

So far it’s kind of been a repeat of the last few springs we’ve had. Haven’t had much issue getting rain in early and mid winter but by late winter early spring it’s been dry. 

We do seem to be in a rut in a number of respects.  No doubt very dry late winter through early autumn has been well established in recent years, with very wet in the mid autumn through early winter.  Then of course what have become ubiquitous February cold waves.  Another interesting recent trend is to have the warmest ENSO anoms be during the summer regardless of ENSO state.

[snow_wizard]

58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS is rock solid

It really looks like we are going to have another cold wave in early March to go along with this one that's about to hit.  That would be flat out rare if it happens.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Should be a gorgeous, crisp week.

The ECMWF keeps extending it and making it colder.  Might beat the late 2018 cold snap.  According to my records that one featured very little clear weather which kept the mins from getting quite as cold as they could have been.  I would have to check if 850s dropped to -13 with that event or not.  That is pretty top tier for this late.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF keeps extending it and making it colder.  Might beat the late 2018 cold snap.  According to my records that one featured very little clear weather which kept the mins from getting quite as cold as they could have been.  I would have to check if 850s dropped to -13 with that event or not.  That is pretty top tier for this late.

I am good with 2018 repeating.

It was a year that transitioned from -ENSO to +ENSO which is probably similar to this year.   I remember we had about 4-5 inches of graupel on Easter Sunday night on 4/1/18.     Then a couple weeks of heavy rain... and then a heat wave later in the month.    And summer basically started in May that year.     And bonus... it was 83 degrees and sunny of the 4th of July. 

[BLI snowman]

Just realized the ICON showed a very sexy overrunning event on Thursday.

WOW.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS shows western troughing again later in the run like the 00Z run... but it is quite dry overall for the next 2 weeks.

[Hawksfan2008]

Pretty impressive convergence zone showing up on the 18z NAM for tomorrow evening 

[GHweatherChris]

[Perturbed Member]

The ICON and GEM are trying for some kind of overrunning late next week

 

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF keeps extending it and making it colder.  Might beat the late 2018 cold snap.  According to my records that one featured very little clear weather which kept the mins from getting quite as cold as they could have been.  I would have to check if 850s dropped to -13 with that event or not.  That is pretty top tier for this late.

Late 2018 might be hard to beat here atleast. Likely won’t get as much snow either. Low temps might be better though. 
2/18 38/29 snow 0.5”

2/19 36/28

2/20 33/28

2/21 33/26 snow 2.0”

2/22 37/25

2/23 36/25 snow 0.5”

[TacomaWaWx]

Definitely not going to touch February 2011 either. That one’s a benchmark. 
2/23 37/29 snow 3.0”

2/24 33/28 snow 4.0”

2/25 30/25

2/26 32/22

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Late 2018 might be hard to beat here atleast. Likely won’t get as much snow either. Low temps might be better though. 
2/18 38/29 snow 0.5”

2/19 36/28

2/20 33/28

2/21 33/26 snow 2.0”

2/22 37/25

2/23 36/25 snow 0.5”

Yeah I believe my area had a few sub freezing highs and lots of low to mid 30 temps otherwise with low DP’s and very little snowmelt. My foot of snow stuck around until the first part of March with several small snowfalls between the big one on the 18th and when it finally warmed up in early March. 

[TacomaWaWx]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I believe my area had a few sub freezing highs and lots of low to mid 30 temps otherwise with low DP’s and very little snowmelt. My foot of snow stuck around until the first part of March with several small snowfalls between the big one on the 18th and when it finally warmed up in early March. 

This one overall doesn’t look quite as cold and less precip to work with. The late 2018 snap is pretty underrated. 

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

The ICON and GEM are trying for some kind of overrunning late next week

 

 

 

UKMET shows it as well.

 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Late 2018 might be hard to beat here atleast. Likely won’t get as much snow either. Low temps might be better though. 
2/18 38/29 snow 0.5”

2/19 36/28

2/20 33/28

2/21 33/26 snow 2.0”

2/22 37/25

2/23 36/25 snow 0.5”

At face value they appear dead equal for 850s and 500mb anoms.  Details look better on this one for low temps.  As always we won't know for sure on snow until it happens.  The possible second cold wave showing up on the EPS in particular has a bit a different look to it.  -EPO is shown to be more dominant than this coming cold snap.  At any rate looks like a lot of cold continental air over the next few weeks.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This one overall doesn’t look quite as cold and less precip to work with. The late 2018 snap is pretty underrated. 

That was a pretty impressive one.  To have three late Feb cold waves in an 11 or 12 year period is pretty out there for this region.  1962 and 2011 will be tough to beat as you said.

[snow_wizard]

It appears a major SSW event is about to happen.  Might be the reason for the models showing a second cold / blocking pattern setting up after day 10.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It would be nice to get some snow this week as a departing gift before we leave. An even better gift would be dry weather from next Monday - Wednesday so we can load the trailer without everything getting wet.

46/40 spread so far today with 0.01 in the bucket.

The upcoming pattern is very snowy for the Upper Midwest... and cold too.     The meteogram below is for the airport in Sioux Falls.    Toasty tomorrow and then the bottom falls out.    When are you planning to arrive there?

[Front Ranger]

42 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Definitely not going to touch February 2011 either. That one’s a benchmark. 
2/23 37/29 snow 3.0”

2/24 33/28 snow 4.0”

2/25 30/25

2/26 32/22

The low of 5 that OLM saw on 2/25/11 is one of the more remarkable records this century.

[RentonHill]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Is anyone else having trouble getting the weatherbell meteograms to come up?  Everything works on the site for me except that.

 

Have to look at them on mobile for me

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The low of 5 that OLM saw on 2/25/11 is one of the more remarkable records this century.

It dropped to 16 here and 19 in 2018.  I think a couple of sub 20 lows is very doable if not likely here with this cold snap.  The surface gradients look absolutely perfect once the cold air is in place.  

I think it's highly remarkable how reliably we have gotten Arctic outbreaks here since the winter of 2015-16, in spite of no top tier blasts in that time frame.  Looks like 2 rounds this winter, and maybe a third if the March situation evolves favorably.  I think the next 12 months are going to be great for cold in the NW as long as ENSO behaves itself which looks very possible at this time.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We arrive in Sioux Falls on 3/7 and will be in Rapid City for the weekend prior. Certainly looking like it could be a snowy drive over, although still out a ways on the models so still time for things to change.

Getting some snow tires put on our new Palisade at the end of the week just for good measure. Sucks we have to replace the tires on a set that only has about 60 miles on them but apparently the OEM Hankook's are absolutely terrible in snow so I'd rather just poney up the $$ and not take the chance, especially considering we probably won't be done with the snow once we finally get over there. 

Was it political, weather or both that you chose SD to move.  I've heard a lot of people are moving there simply because that state has a flat out awesome governor and very limited government interference in their lives.  Did you know there is actually a real estate company devoted entirely to helping people move out of blue states?

BTW...I would keep the tires for a summer set.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Was it political, weather or both that you chose SD to move.  I've heard a lot of people are moving there simply because that state has a flat out awesome governor and very limited government interference in their lives.  Did you know there is actually a real estate company devoted entirely to helping people move out of blue states?

BTW...I would keep the tires for a summer set.

Only state that never had Covid restrictions. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gfs is rock solid

[BLI snowman]

15 seems like a good target here for midweek. Would be our coldest low since January 2017.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Only state that never had Covid restrictions. 

DeSantis / Noem in 2024!

[Gradient Keeper]

What chance would you give Portland to see snow Tuesday? I'm thinking quite low ~20%.

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 48 minutes

[snow_wizard]

GEFS bottoms out at -12.1 850s on this run.  Very solid for late Feb!  The EPS has been going for -13.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

DeSantis / Noem in 2024!

Not sold on Noem. But SD is fantastic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z has a nice trough around March 3rd. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS a notch colder. PDX: 12z -10.3c, 18z -10.9c. That 0.6c difference will make or break this Winter! C'MON!!!!

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

What chance would you give Portland to see snow Tuesday? I'm thinking quite low ~20%.

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 48 minutes

Tuesday looks dry with fairly strong, deep advection. Aside from the inside slider potential (low) later in the week, any snow potential looks to be Monday night (low).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowed 10 years ago today according to FB memories. I have no memory of it. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Fuckk politics.

[TacomaWaWx]

46/39 today just started raining. 

[Kayla]

Winter storm warning issued for here. Looking at 6-10" of snowfall with highs below zero and up to -40F windchills. Likely the coldest temps since all the way back to Feb 2021!! We won't be going outside much beyond tomorrow morning (gonna get out for a quick xc ski before the front!) even though we both have the next couple of days off!

Arctic front should hit here around 10am-12pm

[TacomaWaWx]

+1.2 for February as of today. Pretty good shot at a 6th below normal February in a row but it’ll be close. This will likely be the first year since 2017 that February is warmer than January though. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

24 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

The cold snap is looking pretty solid. Will be interesting to see whether my location can get as cold under -8ºC 850s as it did under +15ºC 850s a few weeks ago (26º F).

On the minus side, the longer range GFS ensembles, which were looking wetter for a couple of runs, seem to be trending drier again. Record driest February still on the table for EUG.

Just checked and we still have less than a quarter of an inch for the month. Oof...

But if forecasts hold, we should hopefully end the stretch of 11 consecutive months above normal. We have had only 3 below normal months since 2020 began.

Feb and March 2020

March 2021.

That 26F is also the coldest temp in Springfield since a low of 23F on Oct 26, 2020...

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Was it political, weather or both that you chose SD to move.  I've heard a lot of people are moving there simply because that state has a flat out awesome governor and very limited government interference in their lives.  Did you know there is actually a real estate company devoted entirely to helping people move out of blue states?

BTW...I would keep the tires for a summer set.

lol the people there voted a couple years ago for cannabis legalization and the state supreme court I believe then blocked the will of the people and did not implement it. Governor is on the record as being anti too. yeah limited government only when you limit things you think people shouldn't have.  but I digress

 

edit:  I see this has been addressed already

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

DeSantis / Noem in 2024!

get that BS out of here