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PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand


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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

New season of Ozark is out!

Already on episode 6.  

But the second half of season 4 won't be released until June... so this first round will be pretty anti-climatic.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

New season of Ozark is out!

I don't really watch television shows... Might record a podcast with Yev this weekend...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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What a mess.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already on episode 6.  

But the second half of season 4 won't be released until June... so this first round will be pretty anti-climatic.

We went into it with no knowledge of the split season. The end of episode seven followed by the return to the home screen prompted a January 2005-level meltdown.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Torching begets torching.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pretty much this.

 

Maybe it's the Californian in me but I love Swain. He's a favorite follow if you like CA weather patterns.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2015 incoming??    🔥

I hope not. But it’s certainly possible. With a +ENSO transition likely (IMO) the odds skew warm especially during the second half of summer.

But a more zonal-variety +ENSO outcome (like 2019, 1997, 1957, etc) is also possible. Basically we want to keep anomalous convection in the IO/ATL, and away from the WPAC (which is difficult to do in this era of steroidal WPAC-convection, but it’s still possible).

Maybe we’ll have a dynamic final warming and monster MJO wave in March, and quickly kickstart a more canonical/EP +ENSO and short circuit the heat.

If we slowly sleepwalk into a +ENSO via WPAC like 2014/15, then it’ll be a furnace of a summer. Ironically, a faster/higher amplitude +ENSO transition may be the “cooler” scenario this year.

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15 minutes ago, Chris said:

How about that Younger Dryas

Lol. We’d be shìtting our pants if something of that magnitude were to happen today (thankfully not likely in the interglacial mean state).

Imagine if the observed warming/sea level rise over the last 350 years all happened in 1 year, and continued at that rate for 5-10 years. Would not be pretty. 😬

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45/35 at SEA today during the coldest 850mb temps of this current troughy period.   

As Justin mentioned would happen... its significantly warmer in many places this week with a much colder air mass overhead than it was during the inversion period.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like we will be heading out for SD on 3/2 with stops in CDA, Butte, Sheridan/Buffalo, and Rapid City on our way to Sioux Falls. Move in date will be 3/7. 

March appears to be a transition month for SF with an average of 7 inches snow while the average max temp jumps 13 degrees from February, landing at 45F. I don't think thunderstorm season really kicks off until JJA, sometimes can happen a bit earlier in May. Excited to start learning about a whole new climate!

There can be nasty thunderstorms there in April and May.  And snowstorms too!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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NWS and SWB touting snow chances tomorrow midday, but I'm really not seeing a whole lot in the way of precip tomorrow. Most models have (weak) precip arriving early afternoon, at which point temps will be too high. Sfc and 925s are cold enough in the morning if moisture is to come though.1643828400-qAb8Sz0iGvE.png

 

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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chart (4).pngKSEA's 2021-22 Oct-Jan mean temp of 44.7°F was the coldest since 2011-12's 43.5°F. Overall on the cooler side of the Oct-Jan normal over the last 30 years.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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chart (5).png

...But the N/S gradient is real. Mahlon recorded its second warmest Oct-Jan period of the last 5 years. 2014-15--present sticks out well. 2013-14 also sticks out, albeit on the colder side. (Interestingly, the coldest winter of the last 30 years was immediately followed by the warmest.)

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I'm ready for winter to end if we can't get into atleast a mountain snow pattern for more than 2 days. This has been the worst January for snow at my cabin in 8 years. The way it looks it'll be the least amount of snow from January 1 through mid February in that area in a very long time.  It's been about 3 weeks of winter this year. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Seattle Boat Show adds are always in my facebook feed now... every time I log in.    Happens every year about this time and its when I start getting anxious for summer.   😎

sbs.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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34 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm ready for winter to end if we can't get into atleast a mountain snow pattern for more than 2 days. This has been the worst January for snow at my cabin in 8 years. The way it looks it'll be the least amount of snow from January 1 through mid February in that area in a very long time.  It's been about 3 weeks of winter this year. 

Yep exactly 3 weeks of winter here with nothing else. Feb is starting to look like a total loss as well. I think SF will make a run at its longest dry streak of 56 days set way back in 2014-2015. Of course we will probably get dumped on in April when nobody wants it and 12" of snow melts in 6 hours of sunshine 

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6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep exactly 3 weeks of winter here with nothing else. Feb is starting to look like a total loss as well. I think SF will make a run at its longest dry streak of 56 days set way back in 2014-2015. Of course we will probably get dumped on in April when nobody wants it and 12" of snow melts in 6 hours of sunshine 

I am pretty sure the mountains in WA will get pounded in March and April.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm wondering if we'll see the first true signs of ecological damage from the June 2021 heatwave this Spring. Sometimes it takes a while for injury to show in plants, particularly in trees, and a stunted growth season would be a sure sign of it. Effects may be subtle as well, like a 5-10% loss in growth, or a similar loss in sunlight uptake efficiency. Such differences are small and hardly noticeable at first, but can compound over months and years. I do wonder if trees in the region may be stunted by 6-12" in around 5-10 years, compared to another timeline where June 2021 hadn't had that heatwave.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm wondering if we'll see the first true signs of ecological damage from the June 2021 heatwave this Spring. Sometimes it takes a while for injury to show in plants, particularly in trees, and a stunted growth season would be a sure sign of it. Effects may be subtle as well, like a 5-10% loss in growth, or a similar loss in sunlight uptake efficiency. Such differences are small and hardly noticeable at first, but can compound over months and years. I do wonder if trees in the region may be stunted by 6-12" in around 5-10 years, compared to another timeline where June 2021 hadn't had that heatwave.

Above post is referring to non-acute damage. Obviously much of the region, including my area, saw dead+singed leaves and branches pop up over the course of July/August of last year, but I'm referring to specific plant health. Much of the damage that has taken place occurred due to photoreceptors being damaged on a microscopic level for the entire remainder of the growing season. It's nearly impossible to tell the impact and scope of the loss of energy uptake until the following growing season when plants expend stored energy into leaf production, germination, ect.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Woke up to the tiniest skiff of snow for the 2nd morning in a row today. Pushed the slush on the car into a pile in an attempt to feel alive again.

EB48F99D-19E1-4D81-A377-CA259A1936FD.jpeg

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 90.5"

2023-24: 5.5"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Had a snow-hail mix for about an hour here right around 3:30-4:30pm today. It was the most exciting thing to happen in almost the last month. 

There was a little bit of snow mixed in with the rain at about 700 feet of elevation a couple times today out in eatonville. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like we will be heading out for SD on 3/2 with stops in CDA, Butte, Sheridan/Buffalo, and Rapid City on our way to Sioux Falls. Move in date will be 3/7. 

March appears to be a transition month for SF with an average of 7 inches snow while the average max temp jumps 13 degrees from February, landing at 45F. I don't think thunderstorm season really kicks off until JJA, sometimes can happen a bit earlier in May. Excited to start learning about a whole new climate!

hehe......hehe......you're going to......BUTT!

Sorry couldn't help it. 

I am very intrigued by the weather in the Dakotas, and look forward to learning about it through you. 

Unfortunately, there is no way I could get my wife to live somewhere that is not on the coast.  In all reality, I don't think I could handle it either.  I have to have an ocean close by.  The furthest I have lived from the coast was Atlanta.  It's typically about a 5-5.5 hour drive to get down to the Golden Isles, although I may have knocked it out in about 4 hours in my '77 Datsun 280z with a couple of BMW's with Dade county plates running point.  We were running at "go to jail go directly to jail, do not pass go, do not collect $200" speeds but man that was fun!!!!

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Lol. We’d be shìtting our pants if something of that magnitude were to happen today (thankfully not likely in the interglacial mean state).

Imagine if the observed warming/sea level rise over the last 350 years all happened in 1 year, and continued at that rate for 5-10 years. Would not be pretty. 😬

Robert Felix always stated that all of the cycles of the Ice age beat cycles are due Immediately not a matter of if or if it will happen but when Robert was certainly a great read he is seriously missed but never forgotten.If when we do go into the next glacer ice age cycle you can thank the warnings of Robert all of those years

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3 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Robert Felix always stated that all of the cycles of the Ice age beat cycles are due Immediately not a matter of if or if it will happen but when Robert was certainly a great read he is seriously missed but never forgotten.If when we do go into the next glacer ice age cycle you can thank the warnings of Robert all of those years

huh...have to admit I had to look that one up.  I've heard the name and aware of the books, but it was escaping me tonight.

 

Not a problem, I'll just have to bust out my checkbook and give him a read 🤨

 

image.thumb.png.5862e0b548a7b53be58f1cea8e7f225c.png

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8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Before it warms up... tomorrow morning looks really icy.   Particularly for the EPSL up to Bellingham.    Might be some black ice conditions where there is still precip this afternoon.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_min_last24-3803200.png

Today was super icy, I wiped out getting out of my truck at the bank this morning, effing up my surgically repaired back a bit, I was being super careful too because when I pulled in to the parking lot my truck slid half way across it.  It was literally a sheet of ice!

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4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Today was super icy, I wiped out getting out of my truck at the bank this morning, effing up my surgically repaired back a bit, I was being super careful too because when I pulled in to the parking lot my truck slid half way across it.  It was literally a sheet of ice!

Dude... that sucks.    We had coating of snow on the driveway this morning and I was walking my daughter out in my sandals that have no traction and was being very careful and still just about wiped out and went headfirst into the pavement.   But its too much work to put on regular shoes.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I’m down for another round of snow and cold if it happens, but I have to admit that the thought of putting the cushions on the deck furniture is pretty appealing at this point. 

I think this spring will be wetter than the last 4 years…so even if it doesn’t snow it might be kind of a more typical nina spring. Would love to see it snow again but we will see time is running out. I’m honestly kind of looking forward to spring now…was working today out in the elements and it was freaking cold being out there all day. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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