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PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand


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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z Euro ensembles 

0BE69B25-123D-4B8D-824F-39871B8CE01A.png.4d8e976c67f0b2108e43922db7763b57.png

Not bad and room for improvement. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

indeed this.  If rates are high enough and temps and profile is right snow will accumulate.  Last year I think it was Denver had a decent snowstorm the day after it was close to 100

Early Sept 2020! Hit 100 then two days later some 42/32 type days w/ an inch of snow at night

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Hit 62 again today. Clouds coming in and down to 59 now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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46 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Still crazy dry

ens_image.php?geoid=135624&var=201&run=18&date=2022-02-13&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

Both the operational and ensembles on 18z GFS are quite good. Wouldn't call it a firehose and there's work to be done down in CA but it's a solid NW flow and skiers/snowboarders will be very happy if these runs come to fruition.

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45 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

ens_image.php?geoid=135624&var=201&run=18&date=2022-02-13&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

Both the operational and ensembles on 18z GFS are quite good. Wouldn't call it a firehose and there's work to be done down in CA but it's a solid NW flow and skiers/snowboarders will be very happy if these runs come to fruition.

Yea, the last few runs of the GFS have been decent. The 12z GEM was too.

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5 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

indeed this.  If rates are high enough and temps and profile are right snow will accumulate.  Last year I think it was Denver had a decent snowstorm the day after it was close to 100

It just snowed an inch here after 2 consecutive days in the 60s. Rates trump everything.

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Not PNW related... but that is a pretty cool 4,000+ mile long band of precip next weekend on the 00Z GFS.    Its basically a continuous band from Guatemala all the way to Greenland.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-5315200 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In case anyone was wondering how the GFS super computer works, here you go! Cliff Mass does a great job explaining the inner workings. 

 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Really good analogs tonight including 1951 and 1955, which are two of the best late winter events in history.  I really don't care what people think about what I think anymore.  If anyone thinks I'm nuts for thinking we're on a good track this year that's fine.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Ended up with a pretty impressive 58/27 spread IMY today.  Lots of chilly weather the second half of the month if the models are to be believed.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really good analogs tonight including 1951 and 1955, which are two of the best late winter events in history.  I really don't care what people think about what I think anymore.  If anyone thinks I'm nuts for thinking we're on a good track this year that's fine.

Models are coming around!

6z GFS in 2 hours 23 minutes

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imagine we actually get another decent (subfreezing highs, my favorite metric) arctic event. not the first thing i'd have expected, but it's not entirely outside climo thru mid march

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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