Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: As if things weren't complicated enough the Euro Control takes a sizable jump SE also weaker from 6z. Mean Let the shenanigans begin... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 If we get rug-pulled again… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: As if things weren't complicated enough the Euro Control takes a sizable jump SE also weaker from 6z. Mean @Clinton I’m sure you are hoping the Euro is right while the rest of us in the area is hoping the Nam and GFS is right. One of these models is going to have to give sooner than later for the right solution 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Seems the 12z models as a whole weren't much help. I can easily see a track that just misses me to the southeast but can't say anything for sure. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: @Clinton I’m sure you are hoping the Euro is right while the rest of us in the area is hoping the Nam and GFS is right. One of these models is going to have to give sooner than later for the right solution If it's like the last storm we'll be waiting until the 12z runs tomorrow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Seems the 12z models as a whole weren't much help. I can easily see a track that just misses me to the southeast but can't say anything for sure. The afternoon AFD should be a good read, the last 2 storms have been brutal for the KC and Topeka offices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Nice uptick for KC with the 15z SREF Mean 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarod Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 HRRR shifted a bit south from 12z to 18z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 17 minutes ago, Clinton said: Nice uptick for KC with the 15z SREF Mean Major shift south from 9z. I think this map will end up being fairly close to correct. There is no way it ends up as far north as the GFS has been showing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z NAM also coming in further south through 42 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Euro = Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Accuweather on crack saying 3-6 for me, like they are only buying the GFS. Bold move accuweather, lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 18z NAM also coming in further south through 42 hours. NAM is a little further south which bodes well for kc downtown and points north and west 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Nam/GFS give my parents in McPherson Kansas 6+, euro 1-2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 NAM took a huge shift south in Eastern Iowa vs 12z. As soon as the 18z GFS capitulates, it'll be all she wrote up here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NAM took a huge shift south in Eastern Iowa vs 12z. As soon as the 18z GFS capitulates, it'll be all she wrote up here. That was a few days ago! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 The cave to the EURO in full swing. Can’t wait for the rest of the 18z model runs to confirm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, winterfreak said: The cave to the EURO in full swing. Can’t wait for the rest of the 18z model runs to confirm. Where do you see that at? No other model is coming in line with the Euro? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, GDR said: That was a few days ago! I just mean, there won't be any models left showing snow this far north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: Where do you see that at? No other model is coming in line with the Euro? The 18z NAM is further south, the short range hi-res models are south, CMC is south, RGEM is south. Doesn’t leave many others… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 I think a lot of the shift is that models have narrowed the deform band , a very long but very narrow axis. With very little snow on either side of that heavy axis. Which is why offices are hesitant to issue anything . A very small shift will wreak havoc on a forecast 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS is so bad. Long range is even worse. Euro gonna win, thankfully, I don't want the snow. 10" mean on the GEFS yesterday. lol I hope we get shut out. GRR is smart for not issuing any watches. This is gonna be a slop fest dud except for a 20 mile band in SMI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Winter Storm Watch ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 LOT with a Winter Stom watch. Counties along wisc not included. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...A period of freezing rain and sleet transitioning over to wet, heavy falling snow possible. Ice accumulations of one to two tenths and total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana mainly along and south of I-88 and including much of the Chicago metro. * WHEN...Freezing rain and sleet late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Snow and blowing snow Thursday morning through early Thursday evening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Winter storm Watch just issued. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 DVN went way north with the watch. Has it just one county to my SE. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Big jump SE on the 18z ICON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 TOP area watch calling for 3-6". Not expecting anything too big I guess... 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: Big jump SE on the 18z ICON lol...right on cue Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, mlgamer said: lol...right on cue The ICON always there for some humor lol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, mlgamer said: TOP area watch calling for 3-6". Not expecting anything too big I guess... They are likely being conservative so they won’t look like idiots with the last storm. I expect these numbers to adjust come this time tomorrow 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z RGEM south and weaker… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, winterfreak said: 18z RGEM south and weaker… Weather models are master trolls...you know the KITN is coming, just a matter of when...lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS nudging south. Shocking I tell you! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 38 minutes ago, tStacsh said: GFS is so bad. Long range is even worse. Euro gonna win, thankfully, I don't want the snow. 10" mean on the GEFS yesterday. lol I hope we get shut out. GRR is smart for not issuing any watches. This is gonna be a slop fest dud except for a 20 mile band in SMI. Believing in the GFS (ESPECIALLY over the Euro) is like believing in Santa. Seems so magical that you hope it’s real, but in the end reality eventually sets in. It’s just funny because if the Euro and GFS were flipped, all you’d be hearing is how the Euro must be trusted as opposed to i think it’ll trend better… Goes to show how much personal bias can really cloud ones judgment. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 The 3.1" it shows here is even overdone. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, BrianJK said: Believing in the GFS (ESPECIALLY over the Euro) is like believing in Santa. Seems so magical that you hope it’s real, but in the end reality eventually sets in. It’s just funny because if the Euro and GFS were flipped, all you’d be hearing is how the Euro must be trusted as opposed to i think it’ll trend better… Goes to show how much personal bias can really cloud ones judgment. Brian, how can you say that when the Euro was not even close to the current track a few days ago? Sure, the GFS could making adjustments now that we are getting closer to game time. It did the same for GHD storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The 3.1" it shows here is even overdone. Bullseye right over my house with 20 inches! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tom said: Brian, how can you say that when the Euro was not even close to the current track a few days ago? Sure, the GFS could making adjustments now that we are getting closer to game time. It did the same for GHD storm. Whenever the GFS and Euro are in 2 different camps, it’s almost always better to side with the EURO. Just a much better model overall that handles the moving variables better and has a far superior track record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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