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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#51
James Jones

Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:10 PM

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That's an interesting thought. In theory, Salem's weather station should have been top-notch, since proximity to transportation/shipping routes is what determined if a COOP observer received the proper sheltering equipment or not (Salem was a COOP station in the 1920's as opposed to a Weather Bureau station). It's funny, but in the early days the Weather Bureau would simply tell far-flung COOP observers to build their own shelters since shipping was too expensive. I'm pretty sure that's the biggest reason why there are so many bogus warm readings at small-town COOP stations from that era. Back to the point, Salem should have had the proper equipment...but at the same time they do have a number of readings from that era that look suspect. So I don't know. 

 

With regards to Salem's supposed 108 degree reading on 7/23/1927 (since that one really jumps out), I don't think there was smoke since Bull Run Headworks hit 106 that day and Cascade Locks reached 103. It definitely seems overexposed since Portland was 101 and Eugene was 97 on that day. McMinnville shows 107 on that day but their obs were garbage during that era. In fact, because McMinnville shows 107 it makes me think the real maximum there was something like 102-103.  :lol:

 

Huh, good information. I had no idea COOP stations worked like that back then. I always learn some interesting quirk like that from your posts.

 

Those three consecutive readings in the 70s during December 1929 are for sure 100% bogus, so we know that station occasionally had problems.



#52
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:12 PM

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Ah, yeah, that would make sense too. I also thought that first word might have said larger but then read it as "larger quarter of the month" which wouldn't have been right.

 

Either way, a lot of smoke. 

 

Yeah... and if it really says "larger portion of the month" then its even more extensive than you thought originally.  

 

It also seems strange to have so many highs in the 70s down there in July in a totally dry month... I would expect it to be warmer so maybe smoke played a role.



#53
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:25 PM

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If post counts mean anything, not as much as either of you!


We appreciate it.

#54
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 12:43 PM

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We appreciate it.

 

It's a long, uphill battle, but I truly believe you will one day beat that butt hurt you contracted over in the political forum.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#55
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:06 PM

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It's a long, uphill battle, but I truly believe you will one day beat that butt hurt you contracted over in the political forum.


Yes, that's it.
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#56
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:09 PM

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Up to 90 at PDX. One down, 30 to go.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#57
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:11 PM

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It's just too bad that the upper air soundings were non-existent in this region before 1950. It'd be interesting to look at the correlation between any high thickness (>576) days and the temps here.

 

I've seen a study where they reconstructed upper air data - temps and heights - back to 1922 based on airport balloon launches (for pilot reports at the time). The purpose of that study was to reconstruct the PNA, and apparently it worked pretty well. I would imagine what you're talking about might be possible...



#58
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:17 PM

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Huh, good information. I had no idea COOP stations worked like that back then. I always learn some interesting quirk like that from your posts.

 

Those three consecutive readings in the 70s during December 1929 are for sure 100% bogus, so we know that station occasionally had problems.

 

Yeah, no doubt about that one. There actually was a record warm pattern with monthly record highs set east of the Cascades on those days, but the Willamette Valley readings were nowhere close to 70. 



#59
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:23 PM

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Yes, that's it.

 

Good. Admitting is always the first step.  ^_^


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#60
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:25 PM

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Thick smoke on the Vancouver cams:

 

webcam_2.jpg

 

vancam.jpg

 

And yes... that second camera is actually live at 2:19 p.m.


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#61
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:27 PM

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SEA has really stalled, only running 2 degrees ahead of yesterday at 84. Doesn't appear particularly smoky in that area right now, though.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#62
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:27 PM

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SEA has really stalled, only running 2 degrees ahead of yesterday at 84. Doesn't appear particularly smoky in that area right now, though.

 

Not bad yet... nothing like Vancouver.  



#63
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 01:28 PM

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MFR should finally break through their 109 degree glass ceiling, either today or tomorrow. They haven't seen 110+ since a reading of 111 on 6/22/1992. Since that time, MFR peaked at 109 on:

 

7/21/1994

7/29/2009

7/31/2015

8/19/2016


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#64
DareDuck

Posted 01 August 2017 - 02:31 PM

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97 in Bend. Will we finally be able to crack 100? We've hit between 97-99 about 7 times I think, but no days hit 100.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History: 

2017/2018: 1"

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: .2"

 

Total: 1.7"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter temps

Lowest min: 9F on 12/9, 12/10, 12/22

Lowest max: 23F on 12/24

Lows < 32: 62

Highs < 32: 9


#65
iFred

Posted 01 August 2017 - 02:37 PM

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Thick smoke on the Vancouver cams:

 

webcam_2.jpg

 

vancam.jpg

 

And yes... that second camera is actually live at 2:19 p.m.

 

That sunset is going to be spectacular.



#66
High Desert Mat!

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:03 PM

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97 in Bend. Will we finally be able to crack 100? We've hit between 97-99 about 7 times I think, but no days hit 100.


Next few days I'm sure.

#67
Phil

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:06 PM

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Arrived in Tampa..snap back to swampy reality.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#68
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:12 PM

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Arrived in Tampa..snap back to swampy reality.

 

At least no smoke there.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#69
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:16 PM

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Smoke definitely seems to be affecting Puget Sound temps...BLI a degree cooler than their high yesterday, and SEA just barely above.

 

Not the case in the Willamette Valley, with most locations in the mid/upper 90s. HIO at 99.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#70
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:19 PM

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Just hit 90 here, only the 2nd time this summer.

#71
DareDuck

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:20 PM

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Next few days I'm sure.


Roberts field has already hit 100 this summer right?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History: 

2017/2018: 1"

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: .2"

 

Total: 1.7"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter temps

Lowest min: 9F on 12/9, 12/10, 12/22

Lowest max: 23F on 12/24

Lows < 32: 62

Highs < 32: 9


#72
James Jones

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:20 PM

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Definitely starting to look smokey on the Space Needle cam.



#73
Phil

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:22 PM

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At least no smoke there.


Yeah, just salt, steam, and alligator farts.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18
Snowfall: 6.7”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 7
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 37mph
Highest wind gust: 54mph

#74
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:25 PM

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The smoke seems to be filtering down through the Sound.   It has not really reached out here yet though...

 

nb40.png



#75
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:41 PM

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Lovely.

 

 



#76
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:43 PM

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Lovely.

 

 

Here is a zoomed in image of the BC wildfire smoke pouring into Western Washington via NASA MODIS: #wawx #KOMOnews pic.twitter.com/pKtqersphR

— Scott Sistek (@ScottSKOMO) August 1, 2017
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

Really cool to see it fill in all the river valleys... even though I hate the smoke.  



#77
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:56 PM

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One thing is for certain: the smoke will lead to some brilliant sunsets over the next few days.
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#78
Geos

Posted 01 August 2017 - 03:57 PM

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Shot from earlier showing the smoke moving SSW. http://wasmoke.blogspot.com/

 

8_1%2Bsatellite.JPG

 

Around 85° at home. Degree or so warmer down here in Bothell at work.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
Total moisture 2017: 45.68", 12/31

2018: 3.31", 1/16, 12pm

 

Season low so far: 23°, 12/24
2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 6.4", 12/26

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#79
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:10 PM

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MMV and SLE both at 100. Medford has hit 108.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#80
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:11 PM

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One thing is for certain: the smoke will lead to some brilliant sunsets over the next few days.

 

1993 redux after all! 


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#81
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:20 PM

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89F with the smoke now thick enough to allow you to look directly at the sun.

#82
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:21 PM

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If Hoquiam doesn't spike again than the NWS nailed the forecast high of 83 there, normally they are off by a few degrees too low in the summer.

#83
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:37 PM

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101 at UAO, 97 at PDX. I should have known better when I called for 100 at PDX earlier today. Too much northerly flow. Based on the progression this morning, 100 seemed likely but the days I had used as analogs generally had w/wnw winds at the surface and a bit ligher/less gusty than today. 



#84
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:58 PM

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I'm not entirely sold on 107 at PDX out of this heat wave. Neither the 12Z GFS or NAM bring the 594dm contour over PDX, although both spike it just to our west in similar fashion to July 2009. In August 1981 the ridge was directly overhead, with the 594dm contour extending to the north of Portland. The 500mb picture just doesn't look right for an all-time record this week in Portland. Maybe the near-record 850's will push us over the top? Also, there's always room for a downslope miracle like 7/30/1965, but that reading resulted from a bizarre pattern that's completely unlike what we're going to see this week (deep low in the GOA and 590dm+ heights building under a ridge to the north = downslope NE winds at PDX, in other words a wintertime pattern in July). 



#85
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2017 - 05:13 PM

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I'm not entirely sold on 107 at PDX out of this heat wave. Neither the 12Z GFS or NAM bring the 594dm contour over PDX, although both spike it just to our west in similar fashion to July 2009. In August 1981 the ridge was directly overhead, with the 594dm contour extending to the north of Portland. The 500mb picture just doesn't look right for an all-time record this week in Portland. Maybe the near-record 850's will push us over the top? Also, there's always room for a downslope miracle like 7/30/1965, but that reading resulted from a bizarre pattern that's completely unlike what we're going to see this week (deep low in the GOA and 590dm+ heights building under a ridge to the north = downslope NE winds at PDX, in other words a wintertime pattern in July).



I'm still liking 104-105 as a top end. Hard to say if tomorrow or Thursday will be the peak, offshore flow is better tomorrow but not too strong. Thursday loses a lot of the downslope component but should have a warmer start and slightly higher thicknesses. Toss up.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#86
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 05:57 PM

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I'm still liking 104-105 as a top end. Hard to say if tomorrow or Thursday will be the peak, offshore flow is better tomorrow but not too strong. Thursday loses a lot of the downslope component but should have a warmer start and slightly higher thicknesses. Toss up.


Decent chance that one or both days are affected by smoke anyway.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#87
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2017 - 06:11 PM

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Decent chance that one or both days are affected by smoke anyway.


Getting that way now but it's pretty diffuse. If it's smoky it'll probably end up cooler.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#88
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 August 2017 - 06:28 PM

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I survived the great 2017 heatwave!  High of 98F recorded and a humidity of 19 percent.  This 'heat' isn't really that bad. Me and my parents were outside for an hour and for most of the afternoon there was a north breeze until 3pmish..  My limit is about 95F outside.  The humidity being low made it much more bearable.   I'd take this over subtropical cut off low iny day.  

 

I have an ear infection the doctor found that has been building up for some time and a nasty fever of 100F *which equals this heat* so I'm being put on Augmentin which I hate but is necessary to kick it out.   The secret to surviving it is have a bunch of natural yogurt *like Tillamook* ready as it helps your guts which in turn helps your stomach not hate you. If any of you ever go on prescription medicine having yogurt really makes a difference and in hot weather it even helps cooling you off a bit almost like ice cream but not so fattening



#89
WeatherArchive

Posted 01 August 2017 - 06:32 PM

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The smoke seems to be filtering down through the Sound.   It has not really reached out here yet though...

 

nb40.png

I see hints of it to the upper right around that mountain there. 



#90
High Desert Mat!

Posted 01 August 2017 - 06:47 PM

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Roberts field has already hit 100 this summer right?


I don't think so. It's been a few years. Seems most summers here are consistently warm/hot with highs 90-95 with no real triple digits in central Oregon.

#91
luminen

Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:03 PM

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First pic is from Saturday between Squamish and Whistler...

 

And the other two are from today, one at 714AM and the other at 717PM. Tomorrow's sunrise should be amazing. It was pretty red this morning. Loving the smoke.  :wub:

Attached Files


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#92
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:05 PM

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Really cool to see it fill in all the river valleys... even though I hate the smoke.  

 

It gives you a view into how low level Arctic air can enter the region from the BC interior.



#93
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:26 PM

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It gives you a view into how low level Arctic air can enter the region from the BC interior.

 

I was thinking the exact same thing earlier.  



#94
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:32 PM

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I was thinking the exact same thing earlier.


It would have taken another 36 hours.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#95
Kayla

Posted 01 August 2017 - 07:57 PM

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I'm still liking 104-105 as a top end. Hard to say if tomorrow or Thursday will be the peak, offshore flow is better tomorrow but not too strong. Thursday loses a lot of the downslope component but should have a warmer start and slightly higher thicknesses. Toss up.

 

I'm still feeling 107-108 on Thursday. Back to back days of ~26c @850mb, similar to 2009 with zero chance of cloud cover. Only caveat is the smoke but looks like the latest guidance keeps it just north and west of PDX during the daylight hours tomorrow. The smoke could keep temps up tonight with the northwest flow before more of an offshore flow kicks in tomorrow.


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 110.2"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 6ºF
Coldest low: -9ºF

Sub-zero days: 6

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#96
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:29 PM

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Smoke has moved in over Portland. Just took a pic from work, looking west over the airport. I can see haze between here and Rocky Butte as well.

Attached Files



#97
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:38 PM

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Smoke has moved in over Portland. Just took a pic from work, looking west over the airport. I can see haze between here and Rocky Butte as well.


Yep, and a gorgeous sunset right on cue.

#98
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:42 PM

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Looks a little more convective next week as the flow aloft turns more southerly. Probably see the 90 streak end on one of those days.

#99
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:46 PM

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Yep, and a gorgeous sunset right on cue.

 

Smoke was actually too thick in Seattle for much of a sunset... almost like thick high clouds.    It just went from gray to dark.



#100
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:47 PM

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Looks a little more convective next week as the flow aloft turns more southerly. Probably see the 90 streak end on one of those days.

 

Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern.

 

Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.