February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I wish the correlation of our homes scoring at the same time worked out this winter lol. Had about 2" in total this whole winter. Been a rough one

 

Normally it works out pretty well, in the past it has; we haven't had much luck with the placement of the lows ahead of Arctic fronts. The models were initially advertising a scenario that would have been good for both sides of the Strait for Sunday but it all went north leaving us with almost nothing. This last system was a pretty lucky, unconventional snow maker here, but your area has the potential to do much better than this area when the flow turns onshore.

[seattleweatherguy]

Nothing good in what the nws discussion tonight sounds like more rain

[Winterdog]

23F now is the coldest reading here at this time for the entire cold spell.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 27. Colder than I thought we would get since the snow melted here quickly.

[pscz1140]

Nothing good in what the nws discussion tonight sounds like more rain

 

You seem like a nice guy, but not the "glass half full" sort.

 

It sounds like at least an inch or two for your area is very possible. And I'm not sure what you mean by "more rain." Hasn't rained in a while around here...

[GHweatherChris]

Nothing good in what the nws discussion tonight sounds like more rain

All they did was copy paste the afternoon AFD, hence where it said "Previous Discussion".

 

So, they didn't alter anything, evening crew doesn't want to deal with it, that's all.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Kinda strange that some od there forecast areas have 7 inches of snow forecasted and not even a wsw or anything. Less than 24hrs away.

[Esquimalt]

Normally it works out pretty well, in the past it has; we haven't had much luck with the placement of the lows ahead of Arctic fronts. The models were initially advertising a scenario that would have been good for both sides of the Strait for Sunday but it all went north leaving us with almost nothing. This last system was a pretty lucky, unconventional snow maker here, but your area has the potential to do much better than this area when the flow turns onshore.

Yeah that last system was definitely unexpected.  We just got a little lucky with band placement and all that, because traditionally we didn't do well in NW flow events.  

 

Tomorrow I see snow transitioning to rain late in the afternoon early in the evening for Victoria.  Any thoughts?  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow 21 at Olympia already.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS operational and ensemble mean show 850s dropping to -8 around the 26 / 27 time frame now.  Sure snow territory if there is moisture around during that.

[Esquimalt]

The GFS operational and ensemble mean show 850s dropping to -8 around the 26 / 27 time frame now.  Sure snow territory if there is moisture around during that.

How's it looking around the 1st/2nd?  The latest operational have shown potential lies there for moisture.  

[snow_wizard]

Wow 21 at Olympia already.

 

This cold snap is kind of a beast for this late in the season.  Currently 26 here.  My coldest reading this early in the evening for the entire winter.

[snow_wizard]

How's it looking around the 1st/2nd?  The latest operational have shown potential lies there for moisture.  

 

I've been looking at that period for a couple of days now.  Some potential for an amplification of the 150 block for a time.

[MikeInEverett]

The half inch of snow sure made for a beautiful sunrise this morning!

 

[HighlandExperience]

Big euro run coming

[Jbolin]

Big euro run coming

Warm? 

[Deweydog]

Big euro run coming

#prayfortim

[TT-SEA]

#prayfortim

 

I need it!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sun and 70 all next week on the EURO.

[Deweydog]

I need it!

It needs you!!!

 

Season four was definitely better.

[TT-SEA]

It needs you!!!

 

Season four was definitely better.

 

Not so happy with season 5 yet.    But I am slowing down now on my intake.

[seattleweatherguy]

Ecwf out to hr 72? Can't see anything but cold

[Deweydog]

Not so happy with season 5 yet. But I am slowing down now on my intake.

We're almost through episode two. Does seem a little rudderless so far.

[TT-SEA]

Per the 00Z GFS... virtually every single 6-hour period for 10 straight days after we return has precipitation.   That is 60 of those periods in a row.   Hope it works out!   

 

Sure will be different than the 6 weeks leading up to our trip.  <_>

[MikeInEverett]

SCORE!

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/8-640x398.png

[Bryant]

00z Euro continuing to show a fairly quick transition to rain which keeps the snow amounts low for just about everyone outside the foothills and NW interior.

 

I have a feeling it's scouring the cold air out too quickly but who knows.

Could you post a map? Curious where the cut off is for the cold air

[Bryant]

Per the 00Z GFS... virtually every single 6-hour period for 10 straight days after we return has precipitation. That is 60 of those periods in a row. Hope it works out!

 

Sure will be different than the 6 weeks leading up to our trip. <_>

Kind of funny honestly...

[HighlandExperience]

00z Euro continuing to show a fairly quick transition to rain which keeps the snow amounts low for just about everyone outside the foothills and NW interior.

 

I have a feeling it's scouring the cold air out too quickly but who knows.

Amounts seem even lighter than the 12z

[HighlandExperience]

4PM Saturday... Most of this falls 10PM-4AM.

Pathetic. It’s been awhile since we have had a good overrunning event.

[luminen]

4PM Saturday... Most of this falls 10PM-4AM.

 

I doubt that verifies for the the Vancouver area but I sure as all hell hope so, especially after tomorrow's snow.

 

Lots of single digit readings in north central Washington right now. Just need that air unlocked somehow.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yeah that last system was definitely unexpected.  We just got a little lucky with band placement and all that, because traditionally we didn't do well in NW flow events.  

 

Tomorrow I see snow transitioning to rain late in the afternoon early in the evening for Victoria.  Any thoughts?  

 

Normally these NW "warm" fronts are pretty poor snow producers around here. I think we'll pick up a few cm tomorrow morning into the early afternoon while the flow aloft is westerly. The dewpoint is still pretty low and there's a nice pocket of cold air through the entirety of the basin so it likely won't scour as fast as it typically does. Precipitation intensity will be a problem and it looks like light rain or mist later in the afternoon before drying up in the evening. Doesn't look like a big rain producer and this is an atypical way to end a cold snap because there will be a surge of cold offshore air coming in right behind the front. The Lower Mainland will be the real winners out of this pattern.

[seattleweatherguy]

I'm going with the nam

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is not the direction we want a storm coming from for a good over running event for the most part. Southerly flow before the moisture gets here can be a killer sometimes. But as we have all seen the models are famous for warming the air mass to fast.

[Lisa0527]

Anyone have the Euro snowfall map Sunday to Monday?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I am thinking a few inches over here is a decent forecast and i doubt we will see a change to rain before Fropa.

[MossMan]

4PM Saturday... Most of this falls 10PM-4AM.

SCORE!

[Bryant]

I'm going with the nam

Why?

[HighlandExperience]

I'm going with the nam

Lol if you want snow go with the icon or gfs. Will know tomorrow.

 

Not sure we can trust the Euro this time. It missed the widespread 1-4 inches in pierce and south King County.

[MossMan]

Coming up on a week since I have seen my lawn! Here was the current view late this afternoon!

Oh and currenly 20 degrees.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I wont lie i like to run with the model thats showing the most snow. Others are wrong.