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January 2019 Observations and Discussion

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#451
GDR

Posted 12 January 2019 - 08:48 AM

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I’ll take the gfs run😍

#452
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 January 2019 - 08:51 AM

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For those of us in Nebraska that missed this storm, the 12z GFS looks good.

#453
james1976

Posted 12 January 2019 - 09:05 AM

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GFS keeping winter hopes alive. Another impressive run.



#454
Niko

Posted 12 January 2019 - 10:28 AM

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@Jaster

 

Looks like snow is getting closer to YBY buddy. I can see you getting maybe a couple of inches.

 

Btw: Extended looks stormy and frigid. It is always excited to see subtle elements that possibly come together and keep an eye on for potential storminess.



#455
Niko

Posted 12 January 2019 - 10:32 AM

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Cloudy skies here in SEMI and temps in the 20s. A little brief warm-up next week (upper 30s) b4 arctic air invades next weekend. As for any snowstorms IMBY, way to early to be seeing models at this point that far out, unless you are a model hugger.


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#456
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 January 2019 - 10:45 AM

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Euro went way South with next weekend's storm, the low now digs all the way down into Texas & Louisiana, bringing significant snow to Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, the Carolinas, and Virginia. 


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#457
gimmesnow

Posted 12 January 2019 - 10:56 AM

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Cool, it's like winter just jumped over S Wisconsin and Chicago.



#458
Niko

Posted 12 January 2019 - 12:46 PM

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh240-300-1.thumb.



#459
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2019 - 01:32 PM

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@Jaster

 

Looks like snow is getting closer to YBY buddy. I can see you getting maybe a couple of inches.

 

Btw: Extended looks stormy and frigid. It is always excited to see subtle elements that possibly come together and keep an eye on for potential storminess.

 

Ha! Thx Niko, but more likely 1/2"???

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh240-300-1.thumb.

 

Nice loop and thx for posting. Been busy with chores today. I posted last night that ol Mr. Fujiwara treated The Mitt to our first snowstorm on Nov 9-10 and may be stopping by again. Prolly our best shot at a storm in this otherwise dull stretch. Here's to hoping buddy! No fair you can just bop over to NYC and catch their action too, lol


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#460
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2019 - 01:37 PM

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Cool, it's like winter just jumped over S Wisconsin and Chicago.

 

Chicago's getting snow. You're on your own island now. S Wisconsin is the Zone of Screws lately :wacko:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#461
gabel23

Posted 12 January 2019 - 03:16 PM

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Congrats to all who got snow out of this system; this was one of the few times that I got shafted. Usually I luck out when I'm on the edge but not this time. Good write up by Hastings today about the pattern change coming up. If we don't get snow out of this next system then it looks like its gonna be a nice, brutal cold stretch with brown grass in my area according to Hastings.  :angry:

 

The ensemble means (GEM/GFS/EC) have been hinting at a
retrogression of the longwaves and they are locked on it now. By
the 10-15 day timeframe...they are all fcstg the mean ridge to be
just off the W coast...with the mean trof over the MS Vly. This is
a signal for Arctic air to dominate here. This is typically not a
snowy pattern of NEB/KS.
..but it is a windy/very cold one. So
brace yourselves. We are heading into the heart of winter and
it`s going to feel like it.


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#462
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 January 2019 - 03:20 PM

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Congrats to all who got snow out of this system; this was one of the few times that I got shafted. Usually I luck out when I'm on the edge but not this time. Good write up by Hastings today about the pattern change coming up. If we don't get snow out of this next system then it looks like its gonna be a nice, brutal cold stretch with brown grass in my area according to Hastings. :angry:

The ensemble means (GEM/GFS/EC) have been hinting at a
retrogression of the longwaves and they are locked on it now. By
the 10-15 day timeframe...they are all fcstg the mean ridge to be
just off the W coast...with the mean trof over the MS Vly. This is
a signal for Arctic air to dominate here. This is typically not a
snowy pattern of NEB/KS.
..but it is a windy/very cold one. So
brace yourselves. We are heading into the heart of winter and
it`s going to feel like it.


Yea I read that and and thought we have seen this movie before. Brutal cold with no snow cover is the worst. In town we still have some drifts and piles and snow cover on the north side of houses. Need this next system to lay down a snow cover.
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#463
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 January 2019 - 03:40 PM

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Euro poo-poos basically anything good up here. Warm anomalies & next weekend's storm digs way South. GFS disagrees.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#464
Niko

Posted 12 January 2019 - 04:01 PM

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Ha! Thx Niko, but more likely 1/2"???

 

 

Nice loop and thx for posting. Been busy with chores today. I posted last night that ol Mr. Fujiwara treated The Mitt to our first snowstorm on Nov 9-10 and may be stopping by again. Prolly our best shot at a storm in this otherwise dull stretch. Here's to hoping buddy! No fair you can just bop over to NYC and catch their action too, lol

:P :lol: ;)


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#465
Madtown

Posted 12 January 2019 - 04:05 PM

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oh well....had a great day skating on the backyard rink...now to check out some badger hockey. making lemonade....or cocktails 😆
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#466
Niko

Posted 12 January 2019 - 05:11 PM

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I think next weekends storm everyone needs to watch it. If we have an east based -NAO and hopefully, the PNA does not go too +, then, that screams a "Big Dog." GFS is a triple phase, but not even looking at it at this point. Way too far out and also, it is a model, which cannot be trusted from this point. The extended looks darn stormy. My local weatherman just said that a big dog is coming soon for someone as all the ingredients up north will be available. We will see. Fun times ahead.


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#467
Andie

Posted 12 January 2019 - 06:48 PM

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We're at 43*, however, it's damp, and overcast. Generally boring and unpleasant.

Received .50" slow rain yesterday. What's new? Wet winter.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#468
Clinton

Posted 12 January 2019 - 07:16 PM

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Euro went way South with next weekend's storm, the low now digs all the way down into Texas & Louisiana, bringing significant snow to Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, the Carolinas, and Virginia. 

I think you will get in on this storm. In the last cycle it was north through Nebraska and Iowa, it will be further south this time but not that far south.  I expect I will be on the southern edge.



#469
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 January 2019 - 08:01 PM

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I think you will get in on this storm. In the last cycle it was north through Nebraska and Iowa, it will be further south this time but not that far south.  I expect I will be on the southern edge.

I'm indifferent about it. I'll be in Fargo this upcoming weekend so if it snows it snows and if it doesn't it doesn't.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#470
Tom

Posted 12 January 2019 - 08:03 PM

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I think you will get in on this storm. In the last cycle it was north through Nebraska and Iowa, it will be further south this time but not that far south.  I expect I will be on the southern edge.

I agree, the Euro op run today was much to suppressed as I'm anticipating another "share the wealth" system across the Plains/MW/Lower GL's.  We have good blocking in place and arctic air feeding into this potential system.  You ready to track another nice winter storm???


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#471
james1976

Posted 12 January 2019 - 09:24 PM

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00z GFS was another crazy run. Lot of storminess and cold air.



#472
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2019 - 09:44 PM

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I think you will get in on this storm. In the last cycle it was north through Nebraska and Iowa, it will be further south this time but not that far south.  I expect I will be on the southern edge.

 

I agree, the Euro op run today was much to suppressed as I'm anticipating another "share the wealth" system across the Plains/MW/Lower GL's.  We have good blocking in place and arctic air feeding into this potential system.  You ready to track another nice winter storm???

 

Double posting but yeah, EPS members were 2 states north with the SLP (W TN) I'm pumped just at the thought of not being fringed!


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#473
jaster220

Posted 12 January 2019 - 09:45 PM

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00z GFS was another crazy run. Lot of storminess and cold air.

 

Sure was but I'd take that 12z scenario for the E Lakes lol


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#474
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 04:17 AM

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Good morning all, hope many of you are waking up this morning with smiles on your faces as we enjoyed a much needed winter storm.  This system marks the beginning, not the end, of what I believe will be an action packed, storm and cold driven, wild and ferocious finish to the month of January.  Will it tip the scale and sit next to some of the legendary January's in history???  How many winter storms are on the table through the rest of this month???  Is there a potential Blockbuster setup later this month???  Earlier this month, you may have thought I was crazy enough to think this pattern is heading towards the Extreme that I had a vision of even before this Autumn began.  However, once I saw the entire LRC develop towards the end of November, my feelings grew stronger and bolder.

 

Ladies and Gents, it's time to sharpen up our focus and get ready for another week of tracking what I'm expecting to be a wound up winter storm traversing the heartland yet again.  All the global models are in a general agreement that a strong piece of energy will eject out of the central Rockies and develop into a relatively strong SLP somewhere near the TX Panhandle region across the C Plains and carry on a west/east track.  Could it be another "share the wealth"???  Tis' the season, esp when we are seeing favorable teleconnections lining up...are you ready???

 

Last night's 00z Euro came back north and not nearly as suppressed of a storm track it was advertising for a couple of runs.  The model tends to overreact to blocking in the long range and we don't have a deeply (-) EPO that would entail a suppressed storm track...yet...but that may change as the month progresses and those farther south may begin to see the wintry side of things.  In any event, here was the 00z Euro snowfall and 00z EPS snow mean.  If trends continue today, I may fire up a storm thread as my confidence that this system develops is very high.

 

 


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#475
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 04:46 AM

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00z GEFS snow depth change for next week....#Jan'19Glacier

 

Dwys_YxWsAA1c7U.jpg


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#476
VMB443

Posted 13 January 2019 - 04:50 AM

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This from Milwaukee - story of the winter so far.

Attached File  3225A3D2-250D-4C41-9F5A-C51D1965764E.png   471.53KB   1 downloads
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#477
Clinton

Posted 13 January 2019 - 05:26 AM

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I agree, the Euro op run today was much to suppressed as I'm anticipating another "share the wealth" system across the Plains/MW/Lower GL's.  We have good blocking in place and arctic air feeding into this potential system.  You ready to track another nice winter storm???

Its gonna be fun bud, the 00z FV3 lines up well with what I am thinking,


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#478
SE Wisconsin

Posted 13 January 2019 - 05:55 AM

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Looks as though everyone in the I-80 corridor and south is going to fare well in the next few weeks.  Here in SE WI it seems as though when we get a big storm coming through it tracks far enough north and west that we get all rain.  Then when it is cold enough for snow all the storms are suppressed to our south, just like yesterday.  From December 1st MKE has recorded less than 2" of snow.  Just a weird pattern we're stuck in this winter.  Hoping we can eek out some lake effect with the system next weekend.


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#479
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:02 AM

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This from Milwaukee - story of the winter so far.

attachicon.gif3225A3D2-250D-4C41-9F5A-C51D1965764E.png

 

 

Per NWS Milwaukee:

 

SNOWFALL (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.0 16.0 1908 0.5 -0.5 T
MONTH TO DATE 0.2 5.7 -5.5 0.1
SINCE DEC 1 1.7 16.3 -14.6 4.7
SINCE JUL 1 8.3 19.0 -10.7 4.9
SNOW DEPTH 0

 

 

They're down less than 11" on the season. Could be made up with one single storm. I get the sentiment tho. Need a good storm over there!


  • Sparky likes this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#480
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:08 AM

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Good morning all, hope many of you are waking up this morning with smiles on your faces as we enjoyed a much needed winter storm.  This system marks the beginning, not the end, of what I believe will be an action packed, storm and cold driven, wild and ferocious finish to the month of January.  Will it tip the scale and sit next to some of the legendary January's in history???  How many winter storms are on the table through the rest of this month???  Is there a potential Blockbuster setup later this month???  Earlier this month, you may have thought I was crazy enough to think this pattern is heading towards the Extreme that I had a vision of even before this Autumn began.  However, once I saw the entire LRC develop towards the end of November, my feelings grew stronger and bolder.

 

Ladies and Gents, it's time to sharpen up our focus and get ready for another week of tracking what I'm expecting to be a wound up winter storm traversing the heartland yet again.  All the global models are in a general agreement that a strong piece of energy will eject out of the central Rockies and develop into a relatively strong SLP somewhere near the TX Panhandle region across the C Plains and carry on a west/east track.  Could it be another "share the wealth"???  Tis' the season, esp when we are seeing favorable teleconnections lining up...are you ready???

 

Last night's 00z Euro came back north and not nearly as suppressed of a storm track it was advertising for a couple of runs.  The model tends to overreact to blocking in the long range and we don't have a deeply (-) EPO that would entail a suppressed storm track...yet...but that may change as the month progresses and those farther south may begin to see the wintry side of things.  In any event, here was the 00z Euro snowfall and 00z EPS snow mean.  If trends continue today, I may fire up a storm thread as my confidence that this system develops is very high.

 

So many things I could post but let me just say this. It's great to be at least included in the decent snow swath this go-around which was never the case with this weekend's storm. Makes it 10X more enjoyable. My other thought is that  this wave looks more robust at this range than yesterday's system which actually had a much larger region of 6+ than I thought it would originally. Could this grow into an even bigger dog??


  • Niko, Tom and Sparky like this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#481
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:24 AM

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As a follow-up to above post.

 

Here's the GFS from 5-days out for yesterday:

 

Attached File  20190107 GFS Snow-cast for 12-Jan.jpg   184.48KB   5 downloads

 

 

Which ended up being this and 20" jack-zone with huge region of 6-12+ amts:

 

Attached File  20190112 Intellicast 20z radar.GIF   32.27KB   6 downloads

 

 

Vs. portrayals of next weekend's system already looking stronger further out in time:

 

Attached File  20190113 0z Euro Snowfall.PNG   388.06KB   4 downloads

 

 

 

Giddy-up! :)


  • Tom, Hawkeye and Sparky like this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#482
westMJim

Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:41 AM

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Yesterdays snow event missed west Michigan to the south. Much of Iowa, Illinois, Ohio and here in Michigan south of I 94 received snow yesterday. Here at Grand Rapids we are now -26.1" in the snow fall department since December 1 and are now -19.7" for the season. Gaylord is now -23.6" below the seasonal snow fall and at Traverse City they are at -26.3" for the season. Here at Grand Rapids the January mean is now at 31.7° and that is good for a departure of +6.9°.  33 of the last 34 days have been warmer then average and 34 of the last 43 have been warmer then average. This has been one long stretch of mild snow free days.At this time I have clear skies with a temperature of 23.0" and of course no snow on the ground not even a trace and yes the date is January 13



#483
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2019 - 06:44 AM

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All 6.5" still on the ground here. Good thing is that because it is concrete, the snowpack should be able to survive the two 40*F days coming up tomorrow and Tuesday. Right now, cloudy and a few flurries. Looking forward to experiencing -40*F wind chills in Fargo next weekend. 27.9*F.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#484
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 07:00 AM

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As a follow-up to above post.

 

Here's the GFS from 5-days out for yesterday:

 

attachicon.gif20190107 GFS Snow-cast for 12-Jan.jpg

 

 

Which ended up being this and 20" jack-zone with huge region of 6-12+ amts:

 

attachicon.gif20190112 Intellicast 20z radar.GIF

 

 

Vs. portrayals of next weekend's system already looking stronger further out in time:

 

attachicon.gif20190113 0z Euro Snowfall.PNG

 

 

 

Giddy-up! :)

:D



#485
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 07:12 AM

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Currently 21F w partly cloudy skies.

 

 

Some crazy weather coming our way later next week. Looks like the December/January thaw will finally end.



#486
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 07:42 AM

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Ofc, some of the chatta is about the coming cold blast and here's a FV3 cold-bomb for ya. Clearly you can see how sheltered The Mitt is from cold invasions thus why we have a difficult time getting early season big snows.

 

Attached File  fv3p_T2m_us_58.png   203.48KB   1 downloads

 

And here's a another color scheme rant. Look at the nearly identical color shadings above and below 0F. How the heck am I supposed to read which side of zero I'm on?? :lol:


  • St Paul Storm likes this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#487
St Paul Storm

Posted 13 January 2019 - 07:44 AM

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Latest first subzero temp on record at MSP is January 18. Based on the latest model runs we should break that record. We’ve officially received only a trace of snow so far this month, and it’s a decent possibility we could end the month with just a trace. I’m glad last winter was wild, because this winter is a complete dud.

I drove to Duluth yesterday and it’s like another world up there. Tons of snow, looks and feels like winter. . There’s no snow OTG until you get about 40 mi north of the metro.

#488
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 07:58 AM

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Ofc, some of the chatta is about the coming cold blast and here's a FV3 cold-bomb for ya. Clearly you can see how sheltered The Mitt is from cold invasions thus why we have a difficult time getting early season big snows.

 

attachicon.giffv3p_T2m_us_58.png

 

And here's a another color scheme rant. Look at the nearly identical color shadings above and below 0F. How the heck am I supposed to read which side of zero I'm on?? :lol:

My guess would be -.



#489
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:00 AM

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My guess would be -.

 

precisely my point - ty Niko! :lol:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#490
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:04 AM

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precisely my point - ty Niko! :lol:

;)



#491
Hawkeye

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:24 AM

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12z GFS, Canadian, and now the ICON(had been weak and suppressed) are great next weekend.... strong, windy, cold, lots of snow.  FV3 has a similar track, but more like a moderate clipper.


  • Niko and Tom like this

season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#492
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 08:27 AM

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Good morning all, hope many of you are waking up this morning with smiles on your faces as we enjoyed a much needed winter storm.  This system marks the beginning, not the end, of what I believe will be an action packed, storm and cold driven, wild and ferocious finish to the month of January.  Will it tip the scale and sit next to some of the legendary January's in history???  How many winter storms are on the table through the rest of this month???  Is there a potential Blockbuster setup later this month???  Earlier this month, you may have thought I was crazy enough to think this pattern is heading towards the Extreme that I had a vision of even before this Autumn began.  However, once I saw the entire LRC develop towards the end of November, my feelings grew stronger and bolder.

 

Ladies and Gents, it's time to sharpen up our focus and get ready for another week of tracking what I'm expecting to be a wound up winter storm traversing the heartland yet again.  All the global models are in a general agreement that a strong piece of energy will eject out of the central Rockies and develop into a relatively strong SLP somewhere near the TX Panhandle region across the C Plains and carry on a west/east track.  Could it be another "share the wealth"???  Tis' the season, esp when we are seeing favorable teleconnections lining up...are you ready???

 

Last night's 00z Euro came back north and not nearly as suppressed of a storm track it was advertising for a couple of runs.  The model tends to overreact to blocking in the long range and we don't have a deeply (-) EPO that would entail a suppressed storm track...yet...but that may change as the month progresses and those farther south may begin to see the wintry side of things.  In any event, here was the 00z Euro snowfall and 00z EPS snow mean.  If trends continue today, I may fire up a storm thread as my confidence that this system develops is very high.

 

Pulled the trigger for you buddy. Can you pls pin tho? Thx


  • Niko and Tom like this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#493
East Dubzz

Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:19 AM

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Hmm... I actually see snow on the models for next weekend. That’s weird. Won’t get my hopes up yet, though.

#494
Tom

Posted 13 January 2019 - 10:07 AM

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Jaster fired up a storm thread for the late week/weekend system...

 

http://theweatherfor...his-be-the-one/



#495
snowstorm83

Posted 13 January 2019 - 11:21 AM

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Looks like some brutal cold coming this weekend and possibly again a few days later. Lincoln's no sub zero standing will definitely be in jeopardy. 



#496
Niko

Posted 13 January 2019 - 11:32 AM

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Looks like some brutal cold coming this weekend and possibly again a few days later. Lincoln's no sub zero standing will definitely be in jeopardy. 

Yes...and it could be record cold smashing all-time records. Get those hoodies ready.



#497
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2019 - 11:36 AM

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Looking like a possible clipper train once the cold settles in too. As long as we maintain a 6" depth at the least following the storm this weekend (not counting on being bullseyed), I wouldn't mind a nickel and dime clipper snow or two.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#498
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 January 2019 - 12:06 PM

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The sun is out & melting has commenced. I'm not too worried about today because all it'll really do today is compact the 1.5" of powder that is on top of the 6" of concrete. I'm just glad because this should get the slushy crap off the roads. I'm more worried about tomorrow. 


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#499
westMJim

Posted 13 January 2019 - 12:25 PM

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Just got back from my walk. it is sunny here and with no snow on the ground the temperature here at my house is now up to 35.6° The airport is reporting 31° You know it still looks and feels like March out there. Funny thing is the complete lack of snow as in the past we have had at least the snow piles even during the warmest of January's 



#500
jaster220

Posted 13 January 2019 - 12:45 PM

jaster220

    "Torch-fest" '18-19

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  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KJXN (work)

Just got back from my walk. it is sunny here and with no snow on the ground the temperature here at my house is now up to 35.6° The airport is reporting 31° You know it still looks and feels like March out there. Funny thing is the complete lack of snow as in the past we have had at least the snow piles even during the warmest of January's 

 

So true. The lack of at least plow piles makes this a strange one for sure. Snow is melting here at 32F and sunshine. Ground's hardly cold let alone deep frost. Takes nothing to trigger heat absorption from the rays. Hoping at least a little snow survives the week if only in the shade of my garage. Kinda glad tho that it's not deeper so the ground can freeze up a little more before real snow falls.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."