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May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

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#101
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:01 AM

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Here is total precip for the next 384 hours for the PNW... not much for the lowlands despite showing a big pattern change in the long run.

 

Still almost nothing for Seattle and Portland...

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_52.png



#102
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:03 AM

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Even so... I would bet the last 2 weeks of May and the first week or two of June will average wetter than normal across the region.  



#103
ShawniganLake

Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:05 AM

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And sometimes the 500mb pattern can be misleading in terms of precip in the PNW.

The 06Z GFS clearly shows the jet extension as well in the 12-16 day period. But even this is not a firehose pattern for the PNW.

gfs_z500a_namer_49.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_namer_48.png

I guess we’ll see what a firehose can deliver this time of year. I usually think of slow moving ULL as being more likely to deliver heavy rain this late in the season
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#104
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:09 AM

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Hopefully this means I’m on my game, haha. Severe weather call looking good right now (and this is probably just an appetizer for the big kahuna outbreak coming up during the last 10 days of the month).

Sort of OT, but flashing warning lights are going off for a big time severe weather outbreak somewhere in the US during the 5/5 - 5/15 period, based on the state of the subseasonal AAM cycle and seasonal MJO phase shift with the upcoming WHEM cycle being the final trigger.

Been several years since the configuration has lined up this way. Possibly not since 2013 or even 2011/2012?


jhdxyZZ.jpg

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#105
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:19 AM

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Here is total precip for the next 384 hours for the PNW... not much for the lowlands despite showing a big pattern change in the long run.

Still almost nothing for Seattle and Portland...

gfs_apcpn_nwus_52.png


Much less than the EPS there, which has the jet focused farther north initially (though it will drift north with time as AAM propagates poleward). Then it will retract with a more classic offshore high/western trough temporarily taking hold in early June.

Then the transition to western ridging/-EPO occurs again, probably sometime in mid or late June as another intraseasonal pulse crosses the WPAC. The subsequent GOA trough/jet extension in July will be less intense than the current one, with reduced cold troughing and more zonal flow, etc, as the pattern slowly trends warmer as the El Niño re-establishes and a low pass signal develops over the east-central Pacific. By August a typical east based niño pattern (GOA trough with mild SW flow) should be well established with warmer than average conditions over the PNW..but no big heat since the Hadley Cell is actually narrow for once..so the 4-Corners High is favored to be weak/equatorward.

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#106
TacomaWaWx

Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:21 AM

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Even so... I would bet the last 2 weeks of May and the first week or two of June will average wetter than normal across the region.

if i were a betting I would say you will be right. Since 2005 here locally we haven’t had a may/June combine for less than 1.19”of rain. (2018 was the record low for precip combined). It’d be suprising if we didn’t atleast get that. Either way we are behind on rainfall and rain in May and June will help but we will still be a little behind for the year still unless there’s a deluge.

#107
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:24 AM

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Note the consequence of a narrow Pacific Hadley Cell regime: Ridging over NE-Canada/Baffin Island, an equatorward NPAC High, and what should be a much weaker 4-Corners High this season. Haven’t seen a narrow Pacific Hadley Cell in FOREVER. I’m excited to see how it affects things, assuming it persists.

In fact, relative to climo, the SW/4-Corners/Southern Plains area might be the wettest part of the US this summer.

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#108
Kayla

Posted 04 May 2019 - 07:28 AM

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Hot. Pretty remarkable how similar this May is playing out compared to last year.

 

2enqpfp.png


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Cold Season 2019/20:

Total snowfall: 53.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 12.0º

Coldest low: -9.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

 

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https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#109
Front Ranger

Posted 04 May 2019 - 09:45 AM

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It was warm at all of the airports west of the cascades, which is what people here care about.

And I didn’t say anything about the rest of the US. :)

 

Warm August/September, but pretty close to average overall. Would be quite a bit cooler than recent summers.


Low. Solar.


#110
Front Ranger

Posted 04 May 2019 - 09:50 AM

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Hopefully this means I’m on my game, haha. Severe weather call looking good right now (and this is probably just an appetizer for the big kahuna outbreak coming up during the last 10 days of the month).


jhdxyZZ.jpg

 

Note the words "seasonably favorable".  ;)


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Low. Solar.


#111
Front Ranger

Posted 04 May 2019 - 09:54 AM

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if i were a betting I would say you will be right. Since 2005 here locally we haven’t had a may/June combine for less than 1.19”of rain. (2018 was the record low for precip combined). It’d be suprising if we didn’t atleast get that. Either way we are behind on rainfall and rain in May and June will help but we will still be a little behind for the year still unless there’s a deluge.

 

Yeah, it would take a record wet May/June combo to erase the deficit built up from Portland north. Highly doubt most places will see 5-10" over the next couple months.

 

Attached File  YearPDeptWRCC-NW.png   121.83KB   0 downloads


Low. Solar.


#112
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 10:13 AM

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Yeah, it would take a record wet May/June combo to erase the deficit built up from Portland north. Highly doubt most places will see 5-10" over the next couple months.

YearPDeptWRCC-NW.png


SEA is only -2.35 for the year.

#113
ShawniganLake

Posted 04 May 2019 - 10:54 AM

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GFS ensemble still looks warm and dry until further notice.

#114
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 11:05 AM

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Warm August/September, but pretty close to average overall. Would be quite a bit cooler than recent summers.


Still warmer than 1981-2010 climo overall.

Stop flatironing.
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#115
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 11:09 AM

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Note the words "seasonably favorable". ;)


Yes. Seasonably unfavorable would be the other end of the spectrum at-range.

Lots of #flatironing today.

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#116
Omegaraptor

Posted 04 May 2019 - 11:18 AM

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We're not looking at a 2011 or 1983 repeat. We're not looking at a scorcher like 2014/5/7/8 either. What we're looking at is a mild summer, slightly above normal temps overall, with no big heat waves. Hopefully no wildfire smoke, maybe 10-12 90ºF+ days in Portland if 1997/2002 is anything to go by.

 

If that's going to be the case, I'm looking forward to it.

 

January 1998 was also a good month for snow in Portland with 8.5"...  :P


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No rain here until Hour 258.

#117
MossMan

Posted 04 May 2019 - 11:18 AM

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Nice day! My dogs agree!

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#118
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 11:45 AM

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Total precip for next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

It looks like it would be a wet pattern at the 500mb level at the end of the run... but it all goes into CA.

20190504-124722.jpg



#119
Omegaraptor

Posted 04 May 2019 - 12:14 PM

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but it all goes into CA.

 

Story of the last six months for rain in Portland.


No rain here until Hour 258.

#120
Farmboy

Posted 04 May 2019 - 12:20 PM

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Hopefully Idaho stays dry. It's amazing how warm 60 feels at 5,000 ft. !
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#121
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 04 May 2019 - 12:26 PM

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Same temp inside as outside.  Windows open and screen door day.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
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My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#122
ShawniganLake

Posted 04 May 2019 - 01:14 PM

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Hopefully Idaho stays dry. It's amazing how warm 60 feels at 5,000 ft. !

Would it feel different than 60F at 2500ft.

🤔

#123
El_Nina

Posted 04 May 2019 - 02:04 PM

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Another wall to wall sunshine day.
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#124
Front Ranger

Posted 04 May 2019 - 02:16 PM

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Still warmer than 1981-2010 climo overall.

Stop flatironing.


And still pretty close to average, and cooler than recent summers. Doesn't have to be either/or.

Low. Solar.


#125
Front Ranger

Posted 04 May 2019 - 02:22 PM

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SEA is only -2.35 for the year.

 

And OLM is only -8.08. Quiyallute, a station you've referenced before when it was convenient to your point, is -13.34.

 

Not based on one station, Tim.


Low. Solar.


#126
Front Ranger

Posted 04 May 2019 - 02:29 PM

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Would it feel different than 60F at 2500ft.

 

No idea what he meant by that...the air is thinner at this elevation, so more UV rays get through and can burn you easier, but I don't think it feels any warmer than lower elevations - especially considering the air is often drier.


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Low. Solar.


#127
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 03:18 PM

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Moved 7 yards of rock today by myself... driver said it was 20,000 lbs.

It is in the upper 60s here today. I sweated a little... but very much enjoyed the sun. It was not an unbearable inferno. :)

This is when pile was half gone already.

20190504-161039.jpg

20190504-161356.jpg

20190504-163019.jpg

Went with a low maintenance Arizona look for the new garage landscaping.

That area was perpetual mud. Should be better now. And we can park the boat on the side of driveway when my kids want to use the garage for their parties... and not get the boat stuck in the mud.
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#128
GHweatherChris

Posted 04 May 2019 - 03:20 PM

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Amazing, on the heels of yesterday today really has a 5/4/2019 feel to it, love it!!

#129
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 03:33 PM

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And OLM is only -8.08. Quiyallute, a station you've referenced before when it was convenient to your point, is -13.34.

 

Not based on one station, Tim.

 

Also... WFO SEA is -3.82 and BLI is -2.64

 

But that being said... I think this has a very good chance of being the first drier than normal year in my area since 2013.    Well on its way now.   Has to happen eventually... not every year can be wetter than normal.



#130
TacomaWaWx

Posted 04 May 2019 - 03:52 PM

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Also... WFO SEA is -3.82 and BLI is -2.64

But that being said... I think this has a very good chance of being the first drier than normal year in my area since 2013. Well on its way now. Has to happen eventually... not every year can wetter than normal.

no matter how you slice the cake it’s been drier than normal. More dry in some places than others but overall dry. Still not the end of the world or even the worst year we’ve had. we all should get through this summer alright.

#131
Farmboy

Posted 04 May 2019 - 03:53 PM

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No idea what he meant by that...the air is thinner at this elevation, so more UV rays get through and can burn you easier, but I don't think it feels any warmer than lower elevations - especially considering the air is often drier.


When temperatures reach a certain threshold, it always seems warmer to me than it actually is at higher elevations.
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#132
Farmboy

Posted 04 May 2019 - 03:57 PM

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It was nice seeing that potentially large trough at hour 276 on the 18z GFS being cut off at the knees. Would like to see it fizzle away altogether, it's camping season.
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#133
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 04:54 PM

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And still pretty close to average, and cooler than recent summers. Doesn't have to be either/or.


Okay?

What the bloody hell are you disagreeing with, then? You literally just reiterated my description of 1997 to a tee.

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#134
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 04:59 PM

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Moved 7 yards of rock today by myself... driver said it was 20,000 lbs.

It is in the upper 60s here today. I sweated a little... but very much enjoyed the sun. It was not an unbearable inferno. :)

This is when pile was half gone already.

20190504-161039.jpg

20190504-161356.jpg

20190504-163019.jpg

Went with a low maintenance Arizona look for the new garage landscaping.

That area was perpetual mud. Should be better now. And we can park the boat on the side of driveway when my kids want to use the garage for their parties... and not get the boat stuck in the mud.


Nice work.

FWIW (not boasting) that’s a typical Tuesday morning for me..I’d be in trouble with the boss man if I didn’t have that done before the lunch hour, and then some. 😓
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#135
GHweatherChris

Posted 04 May 2019 - 05:20 PM

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Nice work.

FWIW (not boasting) that’s a typical Tuesday morning for me..I’d be in trouble with the boss man if I didn’t have that done before the lunch hour, and then some. 😓


Bullshit.

What are you doing this Tuesday.

Prove it.

#136
antipex

Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:11 PM

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Crash!

 

Attached File  ens_image.php.png   145.86KB   0 downloads



#137
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 06:46 PM

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Bullshit.

What are you doing this Tuesday.

Prove it.


Sod and mulching in Laurel, MD.

Just because you have a useless, busted spine doesn’t mean the rest of us do, cūntquake.

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#138
Front Ranger

Posted 04 May 2019 - 07:08 PM

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Moved 7 yards of rock today by myself... driver said it was 20,000 lbs.

It is in the upper 60s here today. I sweated a little... but very much enjoyed the sun. It was not an unbearable inferno. :)

This is when pile was half gone already.

Went with a low maintenance Arizona look for the new garage landscaping.

That area was perpetual mud. Should be better now. And we can park the boat on the side of driveway when my kids want to use the garage for their parties... and not get the boat stuck in the mud.

 

Trying to make your landscape look like Arizona? Jesse does NOT approve.


Low. Solar.


#139
GHweatherChris

Posted 04 May 2019 - 07:28 PM

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Sod and mulching in Laurel, MD.

Just because you have a useless, busted spine doesn’t mean the rest of us do, cūntquake.


Still call bullshit, and fyi I have a back that is as healthy as they can be now..

Also, noone was taking about sod and mulch weirdo!
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#140
ShawniganLake

Posted 04 May 2019 - 07:35 PM

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Moved 7 yards of rock today by myself... driver said it was 20,000 lbs.

It is in the upper 60s here today. I sweated a little... but very much enjoyed the sun. It was not an unbearable inferno. :)

This is when pile was half gone already.

20190504-161039.jpg

20190504-161356.jpg

20190504-163019.jpg

Went with a low maintenance Arizona look for the new garage landscaping.

That area was perpetual mud. Should be better now. And we can park the boat on the side of driveway when my kids want to use the garage for their parties... and not get the boat stuck in the mud.

7 yards of gravel is a lot. Should have got a slinger. Gravel sucks to shovel.

#141
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 07:43 PM

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Trying to make your landscape look like Arizona? Jesse does NOT approve.

 

 

Looks better than weeds and mud.



#142
ShawniganLake

Posted 04 May 2019 - 07:46 PM

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Trying to make your landscape look like Arizona? Jesse does NOT approve.

What happened to Jesse? Taking a timeout

#143
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 07:54 PM

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What happened to Jesse? Taking a timeout

 

 

He will be back when it starts raining... likely after next weekend.



#144
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 04 May 2019 - 07:57 PM

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I got 10 yards of bark last week. I don't like dust. 

 

Beautiful day here in Oklahoma. Sunny and 72 for the high. Staying up in Nowata where they got about 6" of rain on Wednesday so things are still a bit soggy. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#145
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 04 May 2019 - 08:09 PM

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Rex block ... Rex block .... Rex block .... More of the same old same old.

#146
Omegaraptor

Posted 04 May 2019 - 08:16 PM

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He will be back when it starts raining... likely after next weekend.

 

I guess there won't be much Juneau Jesse vs Tucson Tim in the weather discussion thread this week...  :P


No rain here until Hour 258.

#147
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 08:22 PM

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Still call bullshit, and fyi I have a back that is as healthy as they can be now..

Also, noone was taking about sod and mulch weirdo!


Landscaping includes hardscaping. IE: Stone walkways, patios, gravel, erosion control, etc. If you don’t know what the fook you’re talking about, them please just keep your yapper shut, okay? Thanks.

And yeah, hopefully those screws and bolts will hold you together, iron man.

Personal Weather Station Live Stream.
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily


#148
Front Ranger

Posted 04 May 2019 - 08:25 PM

Front Ranger

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What happened to Jesse? Taking a timeout


It does one good from time to time.

Low. Solar.


#149
GHweatherChris

Posted 04 May 2019 - 08:30 PM

GHweatherChris

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Landscaping includes hardscaping. IE: Stone walkways, patios, gravel, erosion control, etc. If you don’t know what the fook you’re talking about, them please just keep your yapper shut, okay? Thanks.

And yeah, hopefully those screws and bolts will hold you together, iron man.


No screws and bolts needed dumba**...

#150
Omegaraptor

Posted 04 May 2019 - 08:46 PM

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00z GFS shows the jet extension going into __________.

 

But then again, it's still mostly past 240.


No rain here until Hour 258.