December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[FroYoBro]

I’m actually pretty excited for the heavy rain this week. Glad the models still show Portland being in a good spot.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I don't think I could have drawn it up any better than that. Looking forward to the EURO weeklies tonight. Think COLD and SNOW! ❄

I could draw it better.  That is cool, not cold.  Look at the map on the left, not the right.  And that is in Fahrenheit, not Celsius.   Decent anomalies, but nothing close to arctic.  

[Timmy]

I could draw it better. That is cool, not cold. Look at the map on the left, not the right. And that is in Fahrenheit, not Celsius. Decent anomalies, but nothing close to arctic.

I would consider a -10 anomaly Arctic. Although that’s being shown mostly for mountains.

 

I get what you are saying, but “nothing close to arctic” is not valid as that map is depicting what would be likely modified arctic air.

[MossMan]

I could draw it better. That is cool, not cold. Look at the map on the left, not the right. And that is in Fahrenheit, not Celsius. Decent anomalies, but nothing close to arctic.

Hopefully that will trend more favorable as we go along.

[Gradient Keeper]

i would wager heavily that's modified arctic air Gorge/Columbia Basin.

[ShawniganLake]

Well if we are dissecting week 3 maps. If that is a modified arctic pattern, why is the basin being shown as the warmest area in the west. Seems odd. Perhaps, cold onshore flow?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I could draw it better. That is cool, not cold. Look at the map on the left, not the right. And that is in Fahrenheit, not Celsius. Decent anomalies, but nothing close to arctic.

I'm just focusing on where the coldest anomalies are located. NW quadrant of the US and Southern BC. Also hot anomalies in the SE. We shall see what the EURO weeklies say tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

WHITE CHRISTMAS!!!
 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I would consider a -10 anomaly Arctic. Although that’s being shown mostly for mountains.

 

I get what you are saying, but “nothing close to arctic” is not valid as that map is depicting what would be likely modified arctic air.

Where do you see -10?  I see -7 and -8's over the Cascades, -4 or 5 over Portland, -6 or 7 over North Sound.  That means  Portland is probably low 40s for highs, Seattle the same.  Maybe Bellingham mid 30's.  Remember, this is Fahrenheit, not celcuis.

 

Obviously better trends than before, and maybe leading up to something big, so it is a start.  Plus this is his predictions, actual forecast may be better (or not).

[MossMan]

WHITE CHRISTMAS!!!

 

Could you post that map but with a northerly view?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I'm just focusing on where the coldest anomalies are located. NW quadrant of the US and Southern BC. Also hot anomalies in the SE. We shall see what the EURO weeklies say tonight.

That is a good point, there are some very cold anomalies in BC for sure.

[Gradient Keeper]

Could you post that map but with a northerly view?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows some snow for Christmas...

 

[TT-SEA]

And just saw it was posted 10 times while I was downloading the map.  

[Timmy]

Where do you see -10? I see -7 and -8's over the Cascades, -4 or 5 over Portland, -6 or 7 over North Sound. That means Portland is probably low 40s for highs, Seattle the same. Maybe Bellingham mid 30's. Remember, this is Fahrenheit, not celcuis.

 

Obviously better trends than before, and maybe leading up to something big, so it is a start. Plus this is his predictions, actual forecast may be better (or not).

those colors are pretty bad, -8 -9 on the Oregon Cascade’s. And -4 -5 at pdx. Still solidly below average around the coldest time of year is near what we would consider (modified) arctic. To say “nowhere near” is not accurate. But again splitting hairs 3 weeks out. The larger scale is what is interesting. That’s a decent signal for cold around here. No one is taking it verbatim.

[Front Ranger]

A few tweaks to the Euro days 9-10 and we have a widespread lowland snow setup.

[MossMan]

 

 

Could you post that map but with a northerly view?

Darkest gray for me...or about an inch if I’m reading that correctly...I’ll take it!

Thanks!

[Deweydog]

My friend who works for the National Endowment for the Arts just emailed me some VERY interesting extrapolations of the 12z Euro. Details to come later! Stay tuned!!!

[Timmy]

A few tweaks to the Euro days 9-10 and we have a widespread lowland snow setup.

too bad the euro is so exclusive with its maps, I don’t even know what kind of setup this is. Small offshore low rotating south ?

[MossMan]

My friend who works for the National Endowment for the Arts just emailed me some VERY interesting extrapolations of the 12z Euro. Details to come later! Stay tuned!!!

I bet your friend will be correct as well!

[TT-SEA]

too bad the euro is so exclusive with its maps, I don’t even know what kind of setup this is. Small offshore low rotating south ?

 

Appears so.

[jakeinthevalley]

My buddy just emailed from McMurdo Station, Antarctica. He said it was cold.

[bainbridgekid]

Where do you see -10?  I see -7 and -8's over the Cascades, -4 or 5 over Portland, -6 or 7 over North Sound.  That means  Portland is probably low 40s for highs, Seattle the same.  Maybe Bellingham mid 30's.  Remember, this is Fahrenheit, not celcuis.

 

Obviously better trends than before, and maybe leading up to something big, so it is a start.  Plus this is his predictions, actual forecast may be better (or not).

That map is showing a weekly average though. If a week averages 5 or 6 degrees below normal, it is a pretty good bet that several of the days are much colder than that given that overall pattern.

[Front Ranger]

My buddy just emailed from McMurdo Station, Antarctica. He said it was cold.

Did he say if there was any snow?

 

Keep us posted.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

those colors are pretty bad, -8 -9 on the Oregon Cascade’s. And -4 -5 at pdx. Still solidly below average around the coldest time of year is near what we would consider (modified) arctic. To say “nowhere near” is not accurate. But again splitting hairs 3 weeks out. The larger scale is what is interesting. That’s a decent signal for cold around here. No one is taking it verbatim.

Agreed that the larger scale is more important.  But will need colder anomalies than that.  But like Frontal said, some real nice anomalies up in BC.  Maybe heading south?

[Timmy]

Agreed that the larger scale is more important. But will need colder anomalies than that. But like Frontal said, some real nice anomalies up in BC. Maybe heading south?

See bainbridgekids response.

[jakeinthevalley]

Did he say if there was any snow?

 

Keep us posted.

Pretty dry down there. Kinda like our cold periods, lack of moisture.

[Winterdog]

And just saw it was posted 10 times while I was downloading the map.  

your maps are appreciated. Not so Oregonesque.

[Timmy Supercell]

4 years ago the snowiest December (or month for that matter) was unfolding. Total for Dec 2015 was 33.10". Though no major snowstorms at least not like 2017, just a lot of spread out snows and it continued to build up over the course of 3 weeks of consistent snowfall. Early on Christmas morning our shed collapsed (an old one and that was eventually going to happen). Max depth 18".

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

That map is showing a weekly average though. If a week averages 5 or 6 degrees below normal, it is a pretty good bet that several of the days are much colder than that given that overall pattern.

Another good point.  Definitely some promise.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Something brewing...

[Deweydog]

Something brewing...

The best part of waking up is Folgers in your cup!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The best part of waking up is snowstorms in your backyard!

 

Late Dec-Jan.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Late Dec-Jan.

Think polar vortex and heavy frost for New Year's!

[MossMan]

Late Dec-Jan.

MLK.

[ShawniganLake]

Today’s EPS is going to be huge.

[jakeinthevalley]

The best part of waking up is Folgers in your cup!

Taster's Choice. "Jim never has a second cup of my coffee."

[Deweydog]

Taster's Choice. "Jim never has a second cup of my coffee."

Jim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jakeinthevalley]

Analog, 1969....speaking of Folger's. Watched "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" last night