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March 2020 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 27 February 2020 - 02:13 AM

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Well, here we are, only a few days away from met Spring and for some of you it has already felt like Spring has arrived early this year.  What will this month entail?  Is Severe Wx going to come out of the gates hot this year???  Is there a durable Spring tease on the horizon???  I'm sure I speak for many on here and most would like an early Spring this year compared to previous years.  Given the nature of our pattern this season, I'm almost certain there will be plenty of severe wx chances this month but how far north is the question.

 

Let's dive in...

 

Last night's 00z EPS suggesting a large scale warm spell starting around the 7th or so while the 00z GEFS are suggesting the cold will try and press.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

 

 

There is a storm system brewing to open up the first week of the month and could be the first one to produce some possible severe wx across the S MW/OHV.  Them models are showing a very wet signal and may be a tell-tale sign of where this year's Spring pattern is heading.

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#2
Tom

Posted 27 February 2020 - 02:18 AM

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Both the JMA/CFSv2 weeklies are showing an anonymously warm CONUS east of the Rockies this month....

 

JMA Week 1-4...warm and wet for the OHV/GL's/MW???

 

 

Y202002.D2612_gl2.png

 

Y202002.D2612_gl0.png

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#3
Tom

Posted 27 February 2020 - 02:21 AM

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The CFS has been steadily trending very wet across most of the MW/OHV and mainly dry across the Plains states...

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202003.gif

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202003.gif


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#4
Clinton

Posted 27 February 2020 - 04:56 AM

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March 4th storm looks to be strong just no cold anywhere around.


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#5
GDR

Posted 27 February 2020 - 05:01 AM

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March 4th storm looks to be strong just no cold anywhere around.

I think it’s time to move on To spring!
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#6
someweatherdude

Posted 27 February 2020 - 07:04 AM

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The fact that the models seem to be showing that winter is over around my area gives me some hope that we may have some more winter to come!  I just kind of assume that the opposite of the models will happen anymore.


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#7
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 27 February 2020 - 08:47 AM

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12Z GFS has upper 60s to low 70s here next Friday. Yes please. :)


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#8
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 February 2020 - 09:05 AM

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Looked out the window and it is snowing.  35 degrees so it is melting on contact.



#9
Hawkeye

Posted 27 February 2020 - 11:03 AM

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Yeah, the models are increasingly suggesting we're largely done with winter.  The Euro is pretty torchy at the end of its range.  Bring on the 50s and 60s!


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season snowfall: 32.3"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#10
Niko

Posted 27 February 2020 - 11:58 AM

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March 4th storm looks to be strong just no cold anywhere around.

Yep, looks very marginal, if that. Unless we get a "Surprise" from Ma Nature outta nowhere..... :D


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#11
Niko

Posted 27 February 2020 - 12:01 PM

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Im thinking by mid March, Winter precip its done! But then again, who knows.


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#12
Hawkeye

Posted 27 February 2020 - 03:54 PM

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The 18z GFS has nine straight days of 50s and 60s here, from day 8 to 16.   B)


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season snowfall: 32.3"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#13
Madtown

Posted 27 February 2020 - 04:15 PM

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The 18z GFS has nine straight days of 50s and 60s here, from day 8 to 16. B)



Should help with Coronavirus!
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#14
Stacsh

Posted 27 February 2020 - 05:17 PM

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PV isn’t coming down this late winter/spring. It will weaken and die. Look for a normal to slightly AN spring. This isn’t last year
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#15
Andie

Posted 27 February 2020 - 05:48 PM

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Should help with Coronavirus!


Yeah, we're warming up down south. We've got the welcome wagon out!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*


#16
GDR

Posted 27 February 2020 - 10:38 PM

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Once this warm air hits the virus is gone!
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#17
shakjen

Posted 28 February 2020 - 07:03 AM

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Getting better snow right now, than we did when we had a Winter Storm Watch issued. LOL


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#18
shakjen

Posted 28 February 2020 - 07:19 AM

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Getting better snow right now, than we did when we had a Winter Storm Watch issued. LOL

Huge flakes now, ground is covered.


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#19
gimmesnow

Posted 28 February 2020 - 07:35 AM

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As long as the rain can keep away, I'll get my last two weeks of spring snowboarding in. Going out for the last real day of winter snowboarding today.


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#20
TOL_Weather

Posted 28 February 2020 - 03:22 PM

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Fantasyland GFS drops 17" in one Panhandle hook storm here. Lock it in.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 23.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#21
Stacsh

Posted 29 February 2020 - 06:03 AM

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Mini-version of 2012 Morch coming?  Signals certainly calling for warm, especially later half of March.   For those of us in the GL's that haven't had a spring in 6 years please verify..


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#22
jaster220

Posted 29 February 2020 - 06:55 AM

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Fantasyland GFS drops 17" in one Panhandle hook storm here. Lock it in.

 

 

WAT???  How 'bout we take a rain check and save that for next winter??  ;)


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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#23
Niko

Posted 29 February 2020 - 07:22 AM

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WAT???  How 'bout we take a rain check and save that for next winter??  ;)

:lol:


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#24
Niko

Posted 29 February 2020 - 07:27 AM

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Live webcam :Watertown, NY 2ft on the ground from LES

 

https://sunyjefferson.edu/webcam.php


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#25
james1976

Posted 29 February 2020 - 09:21 AM

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If it isnt gonna snow bring on the warmth!
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#26
Sparky

Posted 29 February 2020 - 08:23 PM

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Man the CPC thinks most of March will torch according to the recent maps!

It sure has been wet se. of Ia. lately. That could mean wet up here in around 1 mo. as the storm track progresses northward as spring advances or if this pattern holds. We'll see.
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#27
TOL_Weather

Posted 01 March 2020 - 05:50 AM

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Cold start to March. It won't last. 23.5*F, supposed to shoot up into the 40s today.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 23.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#28
Beltrami Island

Posted 01 March 2020 - 06:21 AM

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Mini-version of 2012 Morch coming? Signals certainly calling for warm, especially later half of March. For those of us in the GL's that haven't had a spring in 6 years please verify..


So then March 2010? That month shortly held the title of Morch for me, until 2012 blew 2010 out of the water in comparison.
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#29
Andie

Posted 01 March 2020 - 06:47 AM

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Meteorological Spring starts today (at least it's a start). And Texas is in the mood

We'll have 76*, clear and windy today. Typical spring-like weather.
Rain by Tuesday.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*


#30
Stormhunter87

Posted 01 March 2020 - 07:00 AM

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50s and 60s this week.
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#31
Hawkeye

Posted 01 March 2020 - 08:17 AM

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It's already in the low 50s here at 10am, but thickening high clouds may hold us below 60º.

 

Bird activity is picking up.  Cardinals are singing, and I saw the first robin this morning.  Red-winged blackbirds should be here soon.


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season snowfall: 32.3"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#32
jcwxguy

Posted 01 March 2020 - 10:38 AM

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Been seeing robins here for a month already

#33
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 March 2020 - 11:21 AM

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Haven’t checked in for a few days, battling strep throat. As quiet as the forum is, I really don’t need to look at the models. Spring is upon us it appears.
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#34
IowaWX82

Posted 01 March 2020 - 11:47 AM

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Welcome to March, boys! Welcome to meteorological SPRING!

So much for that epic winter, huh? LOL! Really was backloaded and, man, what the cherry-picked models were showing for two weeks out really was accurate. I don’t see these feet of snowing melting until MAY!

Just a really embarrassing winter for forecasters — pro and amateur — most of whom have MAJOR cold biases but will never admit it. My grandpa’s metal hip did a better job forecasting than the much-too-relied-upon models.

Think spring!

#35
Hawkeye

Posted 01 March 2020 - 12:13 PM

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It's in the 60s in southeast Iowa, but it appears Cedar Rapids may have stalled at 59º due to the midday frontal passage.


season snowfall: 32.3"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#36
gimmesnow

Posted 01 March 2020 - 01:41 PM

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Haven’t checked in for a few days, battling strep throat. As quiet as the forum is, I really don’t need to look at the models. Spring is upon us it appears.

Mar_WSI_0221.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551

 

This is a fun model to look at and discuss. :^)



#37
Hawkeye

Posted 01 March 2020 - 02:32 PM

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That's close to opposite of what the CPC is forecasting for March.  Considering the first ten days of March should be above to well-above average, the CPC should be more correct.


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season snowfall: 32.3"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#38
SE Wisconsin

Posted 01 March 2020 - 03:12 PM

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The second half of March would have to be pretty darn cold in order for that forecast to verify.



#39
jaster220

Posted 01 March 2020 - 03:13 PM

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Just 47F here for a bit this pm. And in the shade with winds, snow piles, etc it wasn't all too spring-like tbh. More like what most of this winter's been, lol. When the piles are gone and we hit 60+ that'll be more like it in my book.


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Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#40
Andie

Posted 02 March 2020 - 04:24 AM

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New York State homes are coping with inches to feet of ice after storm.
Now, aren't you glad you aren't chiseling out of your home?
_________________

https://www.wthr.com...-due-cold-temps

HAMBURG, N.Y. (WGRZ) — Cold temperatures, gale-force winds, and 18-foot waves from Lake Erie created an ice spectacle at Hoover Beach in Hamburg.

Homeowners on South shore Drive woke to the ice completely covering their doors and windows. In some cases, their homes were dark because of how thick the ice was.

Ed Mis, resident and homeowner in Hoover Beach, says he's never seen conditions this bad before. The front of his home is completely covered in ice that is likely one to three feet thick.

"I actually had to go out a secondary door and then chisel my way back into the house by breaking the ice," he told 2 On Your Side's Karys Belger.

[https://www.wthr.com/article/houses-frozen-over-near-lake-erie-new-york-due-cold-tempsattachment=34431:IMG_4184.JPG]

Attached Files


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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*


#41
Sparky

Posted 02 March 2020 - 05:12 AM

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I hit 62° yesterday even with those high clouds.
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#42
Andie

Posted 02 March 2020 - 07:57 AM

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BTW, if your place has run out of hand sanitizer ...besides soap and water there's this.
Same formula as hand sanitizer.

70% ethyl alcohol
30% aloe Vera.

Bingo
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*


#43
Niko

Posted 02 March 2020 - 08:44 AM

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Attm, 48F w spotty showers. Probably feels great outside I would imagine, since I haven't been outside yet. :blink:



#44
Madtown

Posted 02 March 2020 - 08:55 AM

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Sap is running! Syrup time!!! I encourage everyone to give it a try....find some maple trees (dont have to be sugar) and collect 20 gallons of sap. Boil it down over a propane burning and enjoy! 20gal of sap is about 1qt of syrup.
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#45
Stacsh

Posted 02 March 2020 - 09:01 AM

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It's that time of year where if you get some sun temps will exceed forecasts by 3-5 degrees everyday.  



#46
jaster220

Posted 02 March 2020 - 09:39 AM

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It's that time of year where if you get some sun temps will exceed forecasts by 3-5 degrees everyday.  

 

Yesterday may have been my last snow cover day. Which wouldn't hurt my feelings at this point. 


  • TOL_Weather likes this

Winter 2019-20 Snow Total = 43.7"  Largest Storm: 7" (11/11)        Oct: T Nov: 7.8 Dec: 7.1 Jan: 7.3 Feb: 18.0 Mar: 3.5 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 


#47
Niko

Posted 02 March 2020 - 10:15 AM

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Looks like some colder air returns by weeks end and perhaps some more snowshowers, but nothing impressive I think.



#48
kush61

Posted 02 March 2020 - 10:54 AM

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"Big Daddy" Henry was shaking his head and giggling about "The Big Weather Company" releasing their Temperature Outlook - March.

He saw no indications of an unexpected pattern change to turn the middle of your Country really, really cold!



#49
kush61

Posted 02 March 2020 - 11:27 AM

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Capture from Atlantic and Gulf discussion...

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#50
Stormhunter87

Posted 02 March 2020 - 12:39 PM

Stormhunter87

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So we woke up to a wet dusting of snow and now back in the 50s. March always fun in the central plains.
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