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March 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Well, here we are, only a few days away from met Spring and for some of you it has already felt like Spring has arrived early this year.  What will this month entail?  Is Severe Wx going to come out of the gates hot this year???  Is there a durable Spring tease on the horizon???  I'm sure I speak for many on here and most would like an early Spring this year compared to previous years.  Given the nature of our pattern this season, I'm almost certain there will be plenty of severe wx chances this month but how far north is the question.

 

Let's dive in...

 

Last night's 00z EPS suggesting a large scale warm spell starting around the 7th or so while the 00z GEFS are suggesting the cold will try and press.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

 

 

There is a storm system brewing to open up the first week of the month and could be the first one to produce some possible severe wx across the S MW/OHV.  Them models are showing a very wet signal and may be a tell-tale sign of where this year's Spring pattern is heading.

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At the end of the day, Nature will always have the final say...I learned a lot of valuable lessons as I'm sure many professional mets did this season.  While you only came on here touting how bad the

Up here in Canada we woke up to a temperature just below the freezing point and 4" of super fluffy snow sprinkled straight down.

New York State homes are coping with inches to feet of ice after storm. Now, aren't you glad you aren't chiseling out of your home? _________________   https://www.wthr.com/article/houses-frozen-

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Yeah, the models are increasingly suggesting we're largely done with winter.  The Euro is pretty torchy at the end of its range.  Bring on the 50s and 60s!

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 18z GFS has nine straight days of 50s and 60s here, from day 8 to 16.   B)

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Should help with Coronavirus!

Yeah, we're warming up down south. We've got the welcome wagon out!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Fantasyland GFS drops 17" in one Panhandle hook storm here. Lock it in.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Fantasyland GFS drops 17" in one Panhandle hook storm here. Lock it in.

 

 

WAT???  How 'bout we take a rain check and save that for next winter??  ;)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Man the CPC thinks most of March will torch according to the recent maps!

 

It sure has been wet se. of Ia. lately. That could mean wet up here in around 1 mo. as the storm track progresses northward as spring advances or if this pattern holds. We'll see.

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‘20 - ‘21 season snowfall = 39.3”

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Cold start to March. It won't last. 23.5*F, supposed to shoot up into the 40s today.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Mini-version of 2012 Morch coming? Signals certainly calling for warm, especially later half of March. For those of us in the GL's that haven't had a spring in 6 years please verify..

So then March 2010? That month shortly held the title of Morch for me, until 2012 blew 2010 out of the water in comparison.

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Meteorological Spring starts today (at least it's a start). And Texas is in the mood

 

We'll have 76*, clear and windy today. Typical spring-like weather.

Rain by Tuesday.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It's already in the low 50s here at 10am, but thickening high clouds may hold us below 60º.

 

Bird activity is picking up.  Cardinals are singing, and I saw the first robin this morning.  Red-winged blackbirds should be here soon.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Welcome to March, boys! Welcome to meteorological SPRING!

 

So much for that epic winter, huh? LOL! Really was backloaded and, man, what the cherry-picked models were showing for two weeks out really was accurate. I don’t see these feet of snowing melting until MAY!

 

Just a really embarrassing winter for forecasters — pro and amateur — most of whom have MAJOR cold biases but will never admit it. My grandpa’s metal hip did a better job forecasting than the much-too-relied-upon models.

 

Think spring!

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It's in the 60s in southeast Iowa, but it appears Cedar Rapids may have stalled at 59º due to the midday frontal passage.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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That's close to opposite of what the CPC is forecasting for March.  Considering the first ten days of March should be above to well-above average, the CPC should be more correct.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just 47F here for a bit this pm. And in the shade with winds, snow piles, etc it wasn't all too spring-like tbh. More like what most of this winter's been, lol. When the piles are gone and we hit 60+ that'll be more like it in my book.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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New York State homes are coping with inches to feet of ice after storm.

Now, aren't you glad you aren't chiseling out of your home?

_________________

 

https://www.wthr.com/article/houses-frozen-over-near-lake-erie-new-york-due-cold-temps

 

HAMBURG, N.Y. (WGRZ) — Cold temperatures, gale-force winds, and 18-foot waves from Lake Erie created an ice spectacle at Hoover Beach in Hamburg.

 

Homeowners on South shore Drive woke to the ice completely covering their doors and windows. In some cases, their homes were dark because of how thick the ice was.

 

Ed Mis, resident and homeowner in Hoover Beach, says he's never seen conditions this bad before. The front of his home is completely covered in ice that is likely one to three feet thick.

 

"I actually had to go out a secondary door and then chisel my way back into the house by breaking the ice," he told 2 On Your Side's Karys Belger.

 

[https://www.wthr.com/article/houses-frozen-over-near-lake-erie-new-york-due-cold-tempsattachment=34431:IMG_4184.JPG]

IMG_4184.JPG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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BTW, if your place has run out of hand sanitizer ...besides soap and water there's this.

Same formula as hand sanitizer.

 

70% ethyl alcohol

30% aloe Vera.

 

Bingo

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Sap is running! Syrup time!!! I encourage everyone to give it a try....find some maple trees (dont have to be sugar) and collect 20 gallons of sap. Boil it down over a propane burning and enjoy! 20gal of sap is about 1qt of syrup.

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It's that time of year where if you get some sun temps will exceed forecasts by 3-5 degrees everyday.  

 

Yesterday may have been my last snow cover day. Which wouldn't hurt my feelings at this point. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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"Big Daddy" Henry was shaking his head and giggling about "The Big Weather Company" releasing their Temperature Outlook - March.

He saw no indications of an unexpected pattern change to turn the middle of your Country really, really cold!

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