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March 2022 Observations and Discussions


Hawkeye

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

That pattern could lead to a large severe weather outbreak a week from today across the middle of the country.

The clash of airmass's is going to be interesting to see on the wx maps and I think your area may be in the vicinity of some big time boomers to close out MAR.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

As a wx enthusiast, I marvel at the response of a late season SSW event coupled with high lat blocking can do in terms of extreme wx patterns.  If the modeling is right, its suggesting a return to winter for some, while hints of Summer for the south and a parade of storms traversing our Sub.  Where the heck was this blocking during Winter???  I see a hybrid clipper and another bowling ball to open APR.  Wild stuff. 

Oh, let's not forget, but this is fascinating to see a piece of the Polar Vortex literally track from the N Pole starting later tonight and head due S and into E GL's/Ontario region by this weekend.  @Niko @jaster220 won't be to happy....

1.gif

 

Sheesh, the likelihood of these amounts are not happening, but to see this much snow on the final days of MAR is wild.  @Madtown your glacier appears it will grow a bit after some melting.

0z Euro...

1.png

 

0z EPS...Ol' Man Winter is certainly not letting go to easy this year....

2.png

 

Not only are the GEFS cool/cold, but the EPS is also showing a large pool of sub normal temps to make its mark on our Sub through the extended....

2.gif

Almost seems as if it's becoming the new norm for spring. Wouldn't be surprised to see some snow in April.

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@Tom

We had a genuine fast start to spring last year. Basically, winter ceased for SMI with the Feb 15th large storm. March was like April, April like May. It was fantastic! Thus, not too surprised by what this year wants to do. Still not happy about it, but what can you do? It's like the lake breeze off Lake Michigan that delays your spring most years. Now, I can remember some worse years. The snowstorm in late April of 2005 in Marshall, 7" snow in April 2009. Snow-blowing my driveway on April 7th of '96 (Traverse) so I could get out to the airport for a Florida get-away. Going way back when I was a senior in HS, April of '82 was a parade of snowstorms for SMI on eastward. I remember plowed interstates near my home town in Genesee Cnty on 4/20/82.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I can remember some worse years. The snowstorm in late April of 2005 in Marshall, 7" snow in April 2009

Here are some more big late season snow storms in South Michigan April 6, 1886 up to 24" April 2/3 up to 17" April 5/6 1952 up to 11" March 25 1947 up to 13" May (yes May) 9th 1923 up to 12:

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The Southern Plains could see more Severe Weather Action Next Week, that also includes me, @OKwx2k4,  &@Andie

Before that is a Mini Heatwave with Highs in the Mid to upper 80s with Dewpoints reaching the 60s.

 

The SPC has taken note of that

Consistency between global models, regarding their depiction of the
   synoptic-scale pattern over the U.S., deteriorates
   rapidly/substantially with time, during the medium-range period. 
   The divergence in solutions manifests initially during Day 5/Sunday
   -- initially over the West Coast with progression of an eastern
   Pacific low/trough.  The divergence then increases/expands with
   time, to the point where by the end of day 7, the GFS depicts a
   mature surface cyclone entering western Ohio and a trailing cold
   front across the Mid South/central Gulf Coast region, while the
   ECMWF places the low -- though similarly mature -- over western
   Oklahoma.

   Given this unusually large spread in solutions, which is
   particularly highlighted in the increase evident in
   standard-deviation fields within GEFS output through time, during
   the medium-range period, no severe weather assessment is being
   offered beyond Day 5/Sunday at this time.

 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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The GFS is much different than the other models next week.  The GFS digs a big western trough and slowly bowls it eastward across the midwest.  There is little northern stream involvement.  The other models, however, show the northern stream dominating.

The last two Euro runs have trended more favorably, but it's not there, yet.  A few runs ago, the northern wave was way out ahead of the southern wave, but now they are aligned more closely, especially as they first move into the western US.  We need to get the southern wave out ahead of the northern wave a bit.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS is much different than the other models next week.  The GFS digs a big western trough and slowly bowls it eastward across the midwest.  There is little northern stream involvement.  The other models, however, show the northern stream dominating.

The last two Euro runs have trended more favorably, but it's not there, yet.  A few runs ago, the northern wave was way out ahead of the southern wave, but now they are aligned more closely.  We need to get the southern wave out ahead of the northern wave a bit.

I know around here we want the GFS solution.  The slow moving storm with days of moisture would do wonders.  

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Multiple severe t'storm warning polygons on KJKL radar and just started raining here in Ashland!

KJKL_loop (6).gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I didn't realize SPC put us under a Tornado Watch. First one to include Boyd County since getting this house. 

ww0067_radar_big.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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14 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I didn't realize SPC put us under a Tornado Watch. First one to include Boyd County since getting this house. 

ww0067_radar_big.png

Watching that cell to your south near Salyersville. Might skip to your east, but it has a legit looking hail core.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Watching that cell to your south near Salyersville. Might skip to your east, but it has a legit looking hail core.

A gorilla hailer! 😜

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Had 2 rounds of decent downpours, booms (not quite shaking the house, but nice), sun coming back out and gets dark again. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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47F and loud thunder rumble about 5 mins ago.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My current March precip total is 3.44".  This is our wettest March in thirteen years.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 hours ago, Tom said:

As a wx enthusiast, I marvel at the response of a late season SSW event coupled with high lat blocking can do in terms of extreme wx patterns.  If the modeling is right, its suggesting a return to winter for some, while hints of Summer for the south and a parade of storms traversing our Sub.  Where the heck was this blocking during Winter???  I see a hybrid clipper and another bowling ball to open APR.  Wild stuff. 

Oh, let's not forget, but this is fascinating to see a piece of the Polar Vortex literally track from the N Pole starting later tonight and head due S and into E GL's/Ontario region by this weekend.  @Niko @jaster220 won't be to happy....

1.gif

 

Sheesh, the likelihood of these amounts are not happening, but to see this much snow on the final days of MAR is wild.  @Madtown your glacier appears it will grow a bit after some melting.

0z Euro...

1.png

 

0z EPS...Ol' Man Winter is certainly not letting go to easy this year....

2.png

 

Not only are the GEFS cool/cold, but the EPS is also showing a large pool of sub normal temps to make its mark on our Sub through the extended....

2.gif

 

If March is going to go out like a lion, then, sure why not....😄

My highs look brutal next week w potentially remaining in the 20s and teens for lows. Yikes.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

47F and loud thunder rumble about 5 mins ago.

Same here. Had a real loud thunder  w pouring rain and some lightning. No wind or hail though. Hello Spring!

Btw: Our Friend Tom is mentioning some wild, wicked wintry weather for us over the weekend and early next week along w some very cold temps for this time of the year.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The Southern Plains could see more Severe Weather Action Next Week, that also includes me, @OKwx2k4,  &@Andie

Before that is a Mini Heatwave with Highs in the Mid to upper 80s with Dewpoints reaching the 60s.

 

The SPC has taken note of that

Consistency between global models, regarding their depiction of the
   synoptic-scale pattern over the U.S., deteriorates
   rapidly/substantially with time, during the medium-range period. 
   The divergence in solutions manifests initially during Day 5/Sunday
   -- initially over the West Coast with progression of an eastern
   Pacific low/trough.  The divergence then increases/expands with
   time, to the point where by the end of day 7, the GFS depicts a
   mature surface cyclone entering western Ohio and a trailing cold
   front across the Mid South/central Gulf Coast region, while the
   ECMWF places the low -- though similarly mature -- over western
   Oklahoma.

   Given this unusually large spread in solutions, which is
   particularly highlighted in the increase evident in
   standard-deviation fields within GEFS output through time, during
   the medium-range period, no severe weather assessment is being
   offered beyond Day 5/Sunday at this time.

 

Yep. Time to buckle up and let the games begin.

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Light to moderate rain off/on through the day today with a steady onshore wind. Pretty raw.

Temps should warm through the night under WAA, reaching the low/mid 60s by daybreak. Some elevated convection developing over the VA Piedmont as well, hopefully it makes it here.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Nothing really worth pulling my camera out, it looked like the better stuff was off into Ohio/WV today.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Can see the lightning strobing from this cell to my south. First thunderstorm day of 2022.

Storm itself will miss me, though.

00078D0D-8AD2-4D80-BC08-23C88854FB81.jpeg

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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10 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

This is concerning, do Y'all know Mike Ventrice?
 

 

I have been following him for a number of years and find that his modeling is a great LR model for severe wx.  I've had my sights on this storm to end the month with a bang for the S Plains/MW.  Looks like it'll get pretty wild in your region.

 

Meantime, both GEFS/EPS are loading up the moisture train for the central Plains...and more snow to open APR for some...

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_6.png

 

1.png

 

1.gif

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In MBY another 0.25" of rain fell yesterday and over night night low was 43. At the current time it remains 43 here. I did not hear any thunder or see any lightning but the record books for Grand Rapids will record that there was a thunderstorm event here yesterday. 

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2 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

Mid March through April suck weather wise in MI, can’t wait till I can spend this 6-8 week period somewhere south and warm! In my opinion there isn’t a worst time of year weather wise here.

X100…I am usually in AZ by now escaping this weather but have stayed here a little longer than I’d like to.  The wx can get depressing esp stuck under days of wet, dreary and cloudy days.

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Yesterdays official high at Grand Rapids was 48 just before 3 AM and the low was 33 just before midnight. Here in MBY I recorded 0.34" of rain fall yesterday and overnight there was some snow that mixed in with the rain but it was too warm for any to stick. The overnight low here was 34 and at this time it is 37 here. I was driving around the area yesterday and while the grass in my  neighborhood has some green starting to show there are many areas on the north side of town that are very brown and it will take a more rain to get many areas to green up.

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45 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Getting all caught up on rainfall and moisture the last 30 days.  No longer in the abnormally dry range.

View image on Twitter

View image on Twitter

Unfortunately, not much improvement around here.  The next few days will be rough with more Red Flag Warnings.  Have to hope the big system next week slows down.

 

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22 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

Mid March through April suck weather wise in MI, can’t wait till I can spend this 6-8 week period somewhere south and warm! In my opinion there isn’t a worst time of year weather wise here.

You can say that again. Hopefully we have a decent 2nd half of April and a good May. Was it April 22nd of 2005 when SEMI got up to 18" snowstorm? 2008 took until end of April to get true spring. 2009 = well forget spring! I was touristing downtown Chicago in May of 2013, and the high temp was only around 50F. Such a cold wind in the evenings the streets were empty of pedestrians which is NOT normal.  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

It's going to be great to see the sun today, it hasn't shined here since Monday morning.  Great weather ahead with temps in the 50s over the weekend warming to 80 by Tuesday.

 

totally jealous! Winter returns around here as Niko wrote

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks typical to me.  April and May can get real ugly as well as heating flows up from the Gulf.  

We need the rain though. 
That’s what we’re interested in. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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6 minutes ago, Andie said:

Looks typical to me.  April and May can get real ugly as well as heating flows up from the Gulf.  

We need the rain though. 
That’s what we’re interested in. 

This is a literal WPC Bullseye for Northern Texas & into Oklahoma

day5p24iwbg_fill.gif

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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The sun has emerged!  What a wonderful sight to see after this dreadful stretch of wx.  I will say, the soaking rains have greened up the grass around here.  I’m not looking forward to the cold and blustery weekend.  Prob a good day to make some soup tomorrow morning.

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