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Powerful Spring Equinox Storm System


Tom
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18z NAM is west and looking snowy for Central Nebraska. Another much needed (would normally be very annoying) cold rain for SE Nebraska. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Bad day in North Tx. 
80*.  16% humidity  Wind Constant 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.  
NO relief in sight yet   
Fire and Wind Warnings Ip  

Another fire SW of Ft Worth. Burned 3000 acres so far today, still burning at this writing.   This is not going to stop. The drought west of us is growing and rain is not sufficient to turn this around.  I have seen many photos of heart broken ranchers digging trenches and plowing a sizable part of their herd into it.  Mind you this is the calving time of yr and ranchers lose 2 cows with pregnant heifers.  

Really tough to see hardened ranchers  reduced to tears.  They cut fences to try to herd them to safety but cannot reach them all due to fire or smoke. 
 

I live in the far SW corner of the county Ft Worth is in. I’ve seen wildfires come within a half block of me here and right up to our house when we lived west of Weatherford 30 miles from where I am now.  
It’s really dangerous for us now.

Rain in the forecast tomorrow I hope they  got it right!!
Won’t be enough. 
We need a super soaker. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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12 minutes ago, Andie said:

We need a super soaker. 

A Texas Tropical Cyclone may do the trick, back in 2012, even Coastal residents wanted a Tropical Cyclone to end the drought.

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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50 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

A Texas Tropical Cyclone may do the trick, back in 2012, even Coastal residents wanted a Tropical Cyclone to end the drought.

That’s a ways off I’m afraid.  
But we’ll certainly take it!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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0z EPS...the last couple runs the EPS is trying to paint a snow band from CO/W KS thru C NE...

1.png

 

Sorta backed off the snow in the N GL's...

2.png

 

0z Euro...not as aggressive as previous runs which wil

3.png

 

 

Meantime, the 0z GFS is trying to give DSM another hit... @Grizzcoatand his snow magnet???

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

Needless to say, the evolution of this storm will be fascinating as it slowly tracks thru the Sub and occludes over the GL's region.  I'm already preparing my psyche for some gloomy, dreary days ahead....#reversepsychology

 

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...the last couple runs the EPS is trying to paint a snow band from CO/W KS thru C NE...

1.png

 

Sorta backed off the snow in the N GL's...

2.png

 

0z Euro...not as aggressive as previous runs which wil

3.png

 

 

Meantime, the 0z GFS is trying to give DSM another hit... @Grizzcoatand his snow magnet???

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

Needless to say, the evolution of this storm will be fascinating as it slowly tracks thru the Sub and occludes over the GL's region.  I'm already preparing my psyche for some gloomy, dreary days ahead....#reversepsychology

 

 

Local forecasts saying 1-3" snow overnight.  Very poor morning disco from NWS Hastings that read like a forecast on my apps, so who knows exactly.  They did say models have increased from yesterday.  

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...the last couple runs the EPS is trying to paint a snow band from CO/W KS thru C NE...

1.png

 

Sorta backed off the snow in the N GL's...

2.png

 

0z Euro...not as aggressive as previous runs which wil

3.png

 

 

Meantime, the 0z GFS is trying to give DSM another hit... @Grizzcoatand his snow magnet???

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

Needless to say, the evolution of this storm will be fascinating as it slowly tracks thru the Sub and occludes over the GL's region.  I'm already preparing my psyche for some gloomy, dreary days ahead....#reversepsychology

 

 

Crazy to see these models and all forecasters calling for no snow up here and just rain snow mix slop. Should be interesting. 

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Could get bumpy here tomorrow.

day2otlk_0600.gif

 ...Far eastern Kansas and into Missouri...
   As an upper low moves out of eastern Kansas and across Missouri
   Tuesday, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will reside
   across the area.  An eastern Kansas surface low is likewise forecast
   to shift into/across Missouri with time.  As modest daytime heating
   of the warm sector occurs, increasing low-topped, surface-based CAPE
   will support development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. 
   With relatively strong mid-level flow expected in advance of the
   upper low, and ample low-level veering with height -- particularly
   in the eastern and northeastern quadrant of the surface low -- a few
   stronger storms will likely evolve.  As such, hail, and a few
   damaging gusts, will be possible, and even a tornado will be
   possible in the cold-core-type setup.  At this time, will introduce
   a MRGL risk area, but upgrade to SLGT could be necessary in later
   outlooks.
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Forecast sounding for Angola, MS @ 18Z tomorrow. Looks like a discrete threat as there will already be an MCS cooking.

2022032112_NAM_030_30.86,-91.00_severe_ml.png

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Models have come into agreement for around 1.5" of QPF for Omaha/Lincoln with a band of snow setting up between Lincoln and Grand Island tomorrow morning. I would love to wake up to a surprise tomorrow morning but I doubt it anything will accumulate even if a changeover occurs. Regardless the mid 30s and rain will be welcome. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Blizzard warning for the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Hoping this storm throws us a surprise up in my area! Actually I don't care, I just want some precip in the worst way. 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations up
  to 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph.

* WHERE...In Oklahoma, Texas and Beaver Counties. Portions of the
  southwest, central and northeast Texas Panhandle.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning
  commutes. Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees and
  power lines.
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Here we go, just put into a WWA. 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches,
  with locally higher amounts of 4 inches. North winds gusting as
  high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
  central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute. Strong winds
  could cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The combination of strong winds and falling
  snow can lower visibilities to less than 1 mile at times. Rain
  will change to snow from northwest to southeast. Some locations
  south and east of the tri-cities may not transition to snow
  until near dawn.
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1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

Here we go, just put into a WWA. 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches,
  with locally higher amounts of 4 inches. North winds gusting as
  high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east
  central and south central Nebraska.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute. Strong winds
  could cause tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The combination of strong winds and falling
  snow can lower visibilities to less than 1 mile at times. Rain
  will change to snow from northwest to southeast. Some locations
  south and east of the tri-cities may not transition to snow
  until near dawn.

I see I was also put in one.

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We’re at 74.  Wind is 20mph but gusting to 44!   Fun driving today.  
We had one nice downpour but quiet since.  There is a line west of DFW that should deliver more rain…plz! 
We’ve got 1 more shot!

Overcast 
Humidity 77% and Dew at 62.  
 

C’mon rain!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Tornado crossing right over I-35 in the Austin metro

 

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Oh baby!  Today really delivered and still is as it moves NE.  

Tornado warnings in North Texas, some hail, VERY black skies, and the best thunder I've heard in ages.  

Rainfall is still being figured but it wasn't important despite the drought. But to watch it develop both in the sky and the radar was too cool.  At one point the thunder began to roll and simply didn't stop.  

I could close my eyes and imagine what it must have sounded like to hear distant cannons roll at the Battle of Gettysburg. Loud percussive overlapping and Nonstop rolling thunder in the SW and South for almost 30 minutes. Black sky. Pouring rain.  Very other worldly atmosphere. Strange feeling I haven't felt in many years.  

Glad to see some relief from the drought. 

Please Sir, I want some more!  😊

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, Andie said:

Oh baby!  Today really delivered and still is as it moves NE.  

Tornado warnings in North Texas, some hail, VERY black skies, and the best thunder I've heard in ages.  

Rainfall is still being figured but it wasn't important despite the drought. But to watch it develop both in the sky and the radar was too cool.  At one point the thunder began to roll and simply didn't stop.  

I could close my eyes and imagine what it must have sounded like to hear distant cannons roll at the Battle of Gettysburg. Loud percussive overlapping and Nonstop rolling thunder in the SW and South for almost 30 minutes. Black sky. Pouring rain.  Very other worldly atmosphere. Strange feeling I haven't felt in many years.  

Glad to see some relief from the drought. 

Please Sir, I want some more!  😊

 

I was thinking a lot the same in my area over here too! This is just a big old booming, roaring storm. Its been a low, loud and steady rolling roar at times. Its intriguing. Very cool.

I'm so glad you're getting the rainfall. I know you've needed it.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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14 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The large gap in the radar has been there for most of the evening (~4-5 hours). It might finally be filling in.

I’ve been on the very northern edge of the southern batch of rain the entire time so I’m only up to .16” so far.

490868C6-BD99-4D17-A89B-7B03236A85D3.jpeg

I’ve been in gap the whole time and sitting at .04”. Hoping tonight’s precipitation pans out.

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NAM keeps waffling band placement back and forth, now centered a little more over SE SD whereas before it was centered more over NW IA. GFS made the opposite swing, now over NW IA. 

With how narrow the band is it's going to end up being a nowcast, looking-at-the-radar thing vs utilizing the models. Keeps ya on your toes.

nam-218-all-dakotas-total_snow_kuchera-8036800.png

gfs-deterministic-dakotas-total_snow_kuchera-8047600.png

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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The wonders of automation. Defies science once again when the temp goes below the dewpoint in Atlantic,IA-

image.png.e9be684880a1d1b9f049a73078e195f5.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Tornado was just NW of me and on the edge of that rolling thunder I was hearing.  
it was an incredibly dynamic storm.  Our tornado sirens went off but true to  the Western Forum I went outside not to a closet! 😄 

That was the tornado that hit Bowie.  I have a friend in Bowie I’ll contact today. Appointment this morning.  He and his family may have been close to it.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Best snow falling now since we got here two weeks ago! Nice to see. Temp has fallen to 33 from 37 about 45 mins ago as heavier precip moved in. Not sticking to the roads but a light coating on other surfaces so far. 

Hopefully this enhanced precip and slight westward expansion of the band over the past hour or so maintains itself for a bit.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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My Aunt has relatives in Kingston, OK, they're fine, but their friends got struck by the tornado

 

They're fine too, but they've lost their homes.

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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