June 2022 - Summer Begins

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not to sound like Tim or Randy, but my yard is incredibly muddy, and damp, moreso than it typically is in the winter. 

My yard is almost never muddy.   Living on the side of rocky mountain helps... everything drains quickly and effectively up here.    Every time we try to dig a hole to plant something we inevitably hit boulders just under the surface.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

My yard is almost never muddy.   Living on the side of rocky mountain helps... everything drains quickly and effectively up here.    Every time we try to dig a hole to plant something we inevitably hit boulders just under the surface.  

This is by far the muddiest year we've experienced. Things drain pretty well here too, but the very low number of hard freezes we had this winter combined with the unprecedented spring rain have really caused things to get and stay muddy. That and the tremendous amount of ducks we have now, I think they've had an impact too...

[Anti Marine Layer]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not to sound like Tim or Randy, but my yard is incredibly muddy, and damp, moreso than it typically is in the winter. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

29 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, the near record high soil moisture will keep DPs elevated and make significant mixing harder barring some pretty strong offshore flow. A soupier airmass but should help keep the peak temps down a bit from where they could be. Basically the exact opposite of last year.

It got plenty soupy and humid up this way last year. I think KBLI recorded a DP of 74°F at one point.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My yard is almost never muddy.   Living on the side of rocky mountain helps... everything drains quickly and effectively up here.    Every time we try to dig a hole to plant something we inevitably hit boulders just under the surface.  

Ugh same here man. The bedrock is super close to the surface thanks to the creek/river topography, literally need a pickaxe to dig.

You’d think that would increase flash flood potential but in almost 30 years I’ve never seen it flood here. Not once. And we’ve had some *seriously* heavy rain. Like 8” in a few hours.

But just 1-2 miles away and it’s flash flood city. There are water rescues on Goldsboro Road every summer, despite their elevation being higher than here. Makes no sense.

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Offshore looks pretty stout later Friday into Saturday.

PDX will likely mix out still. They like their east winds there. Wouldn't be surprised if much of the valley and outlying areas away from the foothills didn't, though. Probably will see PDX as the high guys on the westside.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Offshore looks pretty stout later Friday into Saturday.

Pretty stout ridge on the 12Z ECMWF for this weekend...

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

do not like the sounds of 90s.  F that, go away 90s

 

 

and just like a switch Summer is turning on on cue

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO going with 90 at SLE Saturday and 93 Sunday, 87 and 92 at PDX. Or at least those are what it is spitting out at 5p those days...

Edited June 20, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX will likely mix out still. They like their east winds there. Wouldn't be surprised if much of the valley and outlying areas away from the foothills didn't, though. Probably will see PDX as the high guys on the westside.

It’s a fairly deep profile, aided by the departure of the mid week shortwave trough. At face value it would overspread the foothills/north valley/Clark County pretty effectively.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It got plenty soupy and humid up this way last year. I think KBLI recorded a DP of 74°F at one point.

I thought BLI maxed out around 80 when onshore flow returned late on the 28th.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

do not like the sounds of 90s.  F that, go away 90s

 

 

and just like a switch Summer is turning on on cue

I don’t think the switch will stay flipped on for very long.

This can be traced back to previous AAM deposition that transiently altered Indo-Pacific tropical forcing(s) as it was evacuated poleward (as expected at that point in the MJO/GWO cycle).

Doesn’t resemble last summer or any of the big torch years, really. Probably a few cycles of ridging through mid-July as this works its way through the system, but interspersed with troughing as well and doesn’t look outrageous.

And then filtered analog pools suggest odds returning to cool again later in July w/ the next -dAAMt.

[Deweydog]

Dr. No says yes.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO going with 90 at SLE Saturday and 93 Sunday, 87 and 92 at PDX. Or at least those are what it is spitting out at 5p those days...

Much weaker marine push on Monday on this run though. Compared to last night’s 00z. Barf.

[Deweydog]

The forum Timentum shift is remarkable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Much weaker marine push on Monday on this run though. Compared to last night’s 00z. Barf.

Looks like PDX scores another 90!

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a really good convective set up one week from tomorrow on the ECMWF. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The forum Timentum shift is remarkable.

Good luck getting any single person to post or complain even half as much.

[TT-SEA]

Just put the patio cushions and umbrellas back out.   Going to let them ride through Wednesday mornings weak c-zone action. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Good luck getting any single person to post or complain even half as much.

I will just tell you that mid 90s is climo from April-October and then debate you endlessly when you tell me it's not.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the CPC thinks we could be sliding into more ENSO neutral conditions by winter. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Really nice day…65 and suns out near the sound. Going out to the island now. 63 in Tacoma. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I will just tell you that mid 90s is climo from April-October and then debate you endlessly when you tell me it's not.

Sure it's climo, but we can hope it happens as few times as possible, just like you hope it rains as few times as possible in the spring. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Really nice day…65 and suns out near the sound. Going out to the island now. 63 in Tacoma. 

Looks gorgeous, I'm in hell... I mean at work. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Much weaker marine push on Monday on this run though. Compared to last night’s 00z. Barf.

Personally I’d trade the stronger marine push for better height rises over the NPAC. 00z would’ve popped another ridge behind the ULL, this run would finish the pattern faster.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the CPC thinks we could be sliding into more ENSO neutral conditions by winter. 

No they don’t. La Niña odds actually increase heading into fall/winter.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Personally I’d trade the stronger marine push for better height rises over the NPAC. 00z would’ve popped another ridge behind the ULL, this run would finish the pattern faster.

Oh yeah. At this stage it’s just normal run to run variability anyway. Always nice to see micro trends like that in our favor though, even at this range.

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Good luck getting any single person to post or complain even half as much.

Good luck getting any single person to react negatively to my and Tim's posts even half as much as you and your friend from Bend do.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty stout ridge on the 12Z ECMWF for this weekend...

 

 

Looks like 850mb temps top out at around 23C for PDX. The marine push gets delayed on Monday so a chance for PDX to get its first official heatwave of the summer, 3 straight days of 90+ weather. Saturday and Monday will be close.

[Omegaraptor]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

No they don’t. La Niña odds actually increase heading into fall/winter.

Seems like the signals are about as encouraging as they get this early on for a cold w- yeah I’m not going to jinx it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

57 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I thought BLI maxed out around 80 when onshore flow returned late on the 28th.

Maybe you’re right. It’s been nearly a year, and it was a painful memory that I have at times tried to forget. It may well have been more like 78. Whatever the exact number, it was obscenely humid.

[Phishy Wx]

Canaan Valley, WV is a unique place

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'd like to believe the EC that we keep things barely below 90F at least.

[Doinko]

Skies have cleared out nicely here

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Skies have cleared out nicely here

Jealous.

No such luck up here today.   The only real clearing is near the water.   In fact there is a strip of clear skies right over the Sound west of Seattle while the rest of the area is still mostly cloudy.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'd like to believe the EC that we keep things barely below 90F at least.

I see touchdowns in your future.

[Deweydog]

[BLI snowman]

50 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Maybe you’re right. It’s been nearly a year, and it was a painful memory that I have at times tried to forget. It may well have been more like 78. Whatever the exact number, it was obscenely humid.

Yeah, BLI's dewpoint reached 78 on the 28th during the evening.

Which as far as I know is a record for western WA.

[BLI snowman]

42 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Canaan Valley, WV is a unique place

 

Looks like some dry air for Phil.

His summer of death is not holding up its end for the time being.