June 2022 - Summer Begins

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Having the two hottest Junes ever (by a country mile) here in the last 7 years has been just brutal for summer lovers.

Most people live in the moment.    This June has been frequently rainy and that reminds people of winter.   So you will hear that joke many times.   

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

PRISM data really isn't exact at all so I wouldn't take it as gospel. Precip in particular varies a lot over short distances so any approximation based on a station a few miles away is still going to have some room for error.

PDX and that area around it pretty consistently runs the driest of anywhere in the metro, though, so I'm sure your area is wetter than them.

I also checked CoCoRaHS observations which has a station relatively close to me so I sometimes use that.

Yeah they seem to always underperform when it comes to rain, maybe they're slightly shadowed by the West Hills?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

PRISM data really isn't exact at all so I wouldn't take it as gospel. Precip in particular varies a lot over short distances so any approximation based on a station a few miles away is still going to have some room for error.

PDX and that area around it pretty consistently runs the driest of anywhere in the metro, though, so I'm sure your area is wetter than them.

True, as much as I love to geek out on the data, it does seem their precip for my location is generally about 10% to low. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Most people live in the moment.    This June has been frequently rainy and that reminds people of winter.   So you will hear that joke many times.   

12z GFS ensembles seem significantly more moist. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

INCOMING

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the EPS shows the GOA ridge beginning to get it's act together in week two (PNA goes from +3 now to -2 by the end of the run).  Should be a cool, but much more pleasant pattern.  4CH displaced eastward during that time

[snow_wizard]

It actually managed to drop to 48 here this morning.  Pretty surprising after the fairly warm and moist airmass we recently had.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

INCOMING

Boooo!

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I also checked CoCoRaHS observations which has a station relatively close to me so I sometimes use that.

Yeah they seem to always underperform when it comes to rain, maybe they're slightly shadowed by the West Hills?

Yeah, it's most noticeable in the wet season with SW flow aloft. There's definitely a little extra element of shadowing there than with downtown Portland, which also sometimes benefits from orographic enhancement against the West Hills if there's easterly flow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh My

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True, as much as I love to geek out on the data, it does seem their precip for my location is generally about 10% to low. 

For some reason all of the precip data maps I see for the last 30 days grossly underdo the precip for Central WA.  I know first hand it has been crazy wet in the Wenatchee Mountains and the maps show it's been drier than normal.  Odd.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh My

How unusual... some rain moving through.   Its been months.   

[BLI snowman]

A massive ridge starting to amplify offshore just sounds like a great way for us to get in on the heat party going forward.

It's summer.... We're not going to see arctic airmasses coming down and clipping us from Canada. And any offshore flow surfacing at all will likely be hot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

How unusual... some rain moving through.   Its been months.   

We are talking about the 2nd weekend in June with a November like system. Rain is a precious commodity here in the summer, as you well know. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are talking about the 2nd weekend in June with a November like system. Rain is a precious commodity here in the summer, as you well know. 

Like a billionaire being excited about receiving a dollar bill up here.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Like a billionaire being excited about receiving a dollar bill up here.  

Oh, but you know they would be!

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Most people live in the moment.    This June has been frequently rainy and that reminds people of winter.   So you will hear that joke many times.   

As long as there are breaks with sunshine in between I would be perfectly happy.

I’d share your sentiment if it were cloudy/drizzly 24/7 for weeks on end. That would be depressing.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the EPS shows the GOA ridge beginning to get it's act together in week two (PNA goes from +3 now to -2 by the end of the run).  Should be a cool, but much more pleasant pattern.  4CH displaced eastward during that time

I remember several years back I was lambasted for explaining that +PNA can be very zonal/stormy up there.

There’s a notion a that +PNA always correlates to warm/ridgy wx (and it often does) but it’s not necessarily the case. Especially when you have poleward AAM transport under a W-Hem MJO transit (this holds true in both winter and summer).

I agree we’ll be moving away from this zonal regime toward the middle of June, with a more typical -PNA/NPAC ridge setup. Looks cooler than average but not nearly as wet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Valley gets pretty shadowed here, but throws us another 3.5" or so. 

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A massive ridge starting to amplify offshore just sounds like a great way for us to get in on the heat party going forward.

It's summer.... We're not going to see arctic airmasses coming down and clipping us from Canada. And any offshore flow surfacing at all will likely be hot.

I think it’ll be far enough offshore to avoid that outcome. At least for awhile.

Both low pass filtered and unfiltered analogs begin to show a slight warm/dry signal in August, and then a more significant western ridge signal in September, however that appears diametrically opposed to a good chunk of seasonal model guidance, which wants to start the winter storm train early.

Will be interesting to follow either way. My suspicion is it will be a flat/stretched seasonal cycle this year, with warmth peaking late and lasting well into the autumn, but it’s not a high confidence prediction by any means. 

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday has become the only totally dry day each week.    Happened last week... happening again tomorrow... and happening again next week per the 12Z ECMWF. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Tuesday has become the only totally dry day each week.    Happened last week... happening again tomorrow... and happening again next week per the 12Z ECMWF. 

Hmmm… 9/11 also happened on a Tuesday.

Meanwhile, it’s been a lovely morning.

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

Better for OR

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall this has to have water managers smiling. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow euro is impressively wet. Over 2” in the next 6 days and another inch of rain in the 7-10 day timeframe. Looking like we’re gonna blow June 2012 right out of the water…and could even end up wetter than March,April and May did. Don’t want to count my chickens before they hatch but it’s a lot of rainfall even in the short term. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Current anomaly in the pivotal 3.4 ENSO region is -0.9C. CFSv2 shows the region warming to -0.5C by the end of June and hanging in that range the rest of the year rising towards neutral by years end, would be an interesting/unusual progression. 

Meanwhile the March-May ONI came in at -1.1C. Which appears to be the lowest ONI reading for that period since 1950. 

[TacomaWaWx]

March only had 2.68”, April 3.63” and May 3.95”. Euro would put us close to May rainfall only 1/3rd of the way through the month. Would be ridiculous to have June be even wetter than all of those months…each month since March getting wetter and wetter the opposite of climo. Would be amazing if it happened. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Current anomaly in the pivotal 3.4 ENSO region is -0.9C. CFSv2 shows the region warming to -0.5C by the end of June and hanging in that range the rest of the year rising towards neutral by years end, would be an interesting/unusual progression. 

Meanwhile the March-May ONI came in at -1.1C. Which appears to be the lowest ONI reading for that period since 1950. 

The CFS is likely too warm. That model has been struggling mightily this year.

It also has what looks like a spurious latent heat feedback across the middle/higher latitude oceans. Been projecting this (and pushing it back) for months now.

[Phil]

Two months ago was boiling the oceans by early May. A month ago it was boiling them by early June. Now early July.

It’s a 100% artificial feedback that renders the model useless. 

[jcmcgaffey]

@Phil: I can’t get over your signature and how consistently warmer you are over there than here.  Our highs have been lower than your lows.  I would take our weather over what I have been seeing consistently on your signature. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

The CFS is likely too warm. That model has been struggling mightily this year.

It also has what looks like a spurious latent heat feedback across the middle/higher latitude oceans. Been projecting this (and pushing it back) for months now.

I did notice that sub- surface cold anomalies have slightly increased, with the trade wind burst you are referencing, I don’t think the surface is going to warm significantly as it shows. 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

@Phil: I can’t get over your signature and how consistently warmer you are over there than here.  Our highs have been lower than your lows.  I would take our weather over what I have been seeing consistently on your signature. 

Lol. We’re also in a trough pattern at the moment, so this weather has been comfortable by our standards. I’ve actually enjoyed it.

The second we lose the trough (or even just weaken it a little) we’ll shoot up into the 90s with lows in the mid-70s. Usually happens towards the summer solstice, timing probably will be similar this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil, I feel like the situation we are currently experiencing with ENSO is extremely unusual. Here we have an ONI peaking in spring, not only is this an unprecedented reading for MAM, almost all of the other instances where the ONI was -0.8C or lower came after significant Ninas and the ENSO anomalies though significant were rapidly fading. 

The only Nina I can find where the ONI dropped from FMA to MAM was 1955. It looks like it stayed steady in 1975 and 1985. If we are looking at ENSO 1955 and 1985 seem like the best matches at this point. 

[Omegaraptor]

15 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

@Phil: I can’t get over your signature and how consistently warmer you are over there than here.  Our highs have been lower than your lows.  I would take our weather over what I have been seeing consistently on your signature. 

Summer in a humid continental area at 39°N hotter than summer downwind from a cold ocean at 47°N. Shocker!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Summer in a humid continental area at 39°N hotter than summer downwind from a cold ocean at 47°N. Shocker!

What is summer like in the upper Sacramento valley? 

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What is summer like in the upper Sacramento valley? 

Completely different situation there? The Trinity Alps and Yolla Bollies are legit mountain ranges peaking at 8-9k. Far cry from something like the Oregon Coast Range. There are no meaningful gaps in them either to my knowledge, or at least nothing close to the Chehalis Gap or Strait of Juan De Fuca.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Completely different situation there? The Trinity Alps and Yolla Bollies are legit mountain ranges peaking at 8-9k. Far cry from something like the Oregon Coast Range. There are no meaningful gaps in them either to my knowledge, or at least nothing close to the Chehalis Gap or Strait of Juan De Fuca.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I think it’ll be far enough offshore to avoid that outcome. At least for awhile.

Both low pass filtered and unfiltered analogs begin to show a slight warm/dry signal in August, and then a more significant western ridge signal in September, however that appears diametrically opposed to a good chunk of seasonal model guidance, which wants to start the winter storm train early.

Will be interesting to follow either way. My suspicion is it will be a flat/stretched seasonal cycle this year, with warmth peaking late and lasting well into the autumn, but it’s not a high confidence prediction by any means. 

Yeah, a drier and more amplified regime (probably favoring ridging here) still feels like the best bet as we head into the end of summer and start of fall. Not really feeling an early jet blast for that stretch.

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil, I feel like the situation we are currently experiencing with ENSO is extremely unusual. Here we have an ONI peaking in spring, not only is this an unprecedented reading for MAM, almost all of the other instances where the ONI was -0.8C or lower came after significant Ninas and the ENSO anomalies though significant were rapidly fading. 

The only Nina I can find where the ONI dropped from FMA to MAM was 1955. It looks like it stayed steady in 1975 and 1985. If we are looking at ENSO 1955 and 1985 seem like the best matches at this point. 

November cold/snow lol??!!